The Oil Drum

I actually started on this post about a year ago, and forgot about it until recently. Here I provide 2007 numbers on the sources for oil and gasoline imports into the U.S., courtesy of the Energy Information Administration.

For 2007, the Top 10 exporters of finished gasoline to the U.S. in million barrels were:

The April 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.65 MB, 21 pp).

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

Last week, the EIA held a special conference, celebrating the 30th anniversary of their founding. They have held smaller one-day conferences in the past, but this was an expanded conference for the occasion.

I decided to attend because we use a lot of EIA data, and I thought I might learn more about the behind the scenes process. I also thought I might learn something from the presentations, and meet a few new people.

The conference was held in the Washington Conference Center in Washington DC. We were told that there were 1,600 registrants. The conference was free, so it was "sold out" shortly after registration opened.

The website for the conference can be found here. It now includes links to presentations from quite a few presenters. Below the fold are a few of my take-aways, including some graphs from the session on peak oil and a session on electrical issues.

The EIA’s newest International Petroleum Monthly shows World C+C production for January was 74,466,000 barrels per day, eclipsing the heretofore peak of May 2005 by 168,000 barrels per day. (thanks to Ron Patterson for the heads up and to Khebab for the quick graphics).

Fig 1.- World production (EIA data). Blue lines and pentagrams are indicating monthly maximum. Monthly data for CO from the EIA. Annual data for NGPL and Other Liquids from 1980 to 2001 have been upsampled to get monthly estimates. Click to Enlarge.

Sometimes lost in headline discussions of oil production and prices is the sister story for natural gas. As might be expected, natural gas prices have mirrored the price change in oil, (though in the UK, they are currently approaching $15per mcf-a much higher increase than in North America). We have just been through (and still are in, from where I type this) one of the coldest winters in recent memory-consequently we have had dropped considerably from beginning storage levels. This morning the EIA announced a 36 bcf withdrawal of natural gas for the week ended Mar 21, in line with expectations, but capping a winter of 2nd largest withdrawals since 1995. Below the fold are a few graphical snapshots of the natural gas situation. TOD readers feel free to post any relevant natural gas links below.

Preliminary data regarding oil production through December 2007 is now available from the US Energy Information Administration, so it is a good time to put together an updated summary of where we are now with respect to peak oil. The major themes of this presentation are

3. Use the presentation for a group, using the PowerPoint format.

I haven't reported on inventories in about a month, because there really weren't any developments that merited a report. While crude, distillate, and propane inventory levels have been typical for this time of year, the gasoline situation is worth a note.

It sort of crept up on me, but last week as I reviewed This Week in Petroleum, I was struck by just how fast the U.S. has built gasoline inventories. Currently at 230 million barrels, I could not recall ever seeing gasoline inventories that high. So, I went back and looked, and the last time gasoline inventories stood at this level was in 1994. And in this week's report, we again had an increase in gasoline inventories:

Updated

Gasoline inventories did in fact edge upward, as gasoline imports were very strong. Had that not been the case, gasoline inventories would have definitely come down, as utilization continues to trend down. In fact, just glancing over the data, more gasoline may have been imported this January than in any other January before. As long as that continues, gasoline prices won't gain much traction. But European refiners have to take turnarounds as well, so gasoline imports typically fall off in February and March.

Updated:

Not too much to get excited about. Those reports of some refineries coming down early for turnarounds due to low margins look to be accurate, given the drop in refinery utilization. That would also explain the rise in crude inventories, but typically you start to see gasoline inventories coming down as the refineries come offline. Gasoline production did fall, as one would expect as turnaround season begins. However, gasoline inventories increased on the back of very strong gasoline import numbers.