Stories tagged with "encircling the peak"

Encircling the peak of world oil production - an evaluation

Posted by Euan Mearns on July 6, 2009 - 10:02am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: encircling the peak, forecast, peak oil, richard duncan, walter yougquist [list all tags]


In a recent post Nate brought to our attention the work of Richard Duncan and Walter Youngquist published in 1999 in a paper called Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production. In 2007 I performed a simple analysis of the reliability of their forecasts for 26 countries (out of 42 country forecasts that were published) that were checked against what had actually come to pass as documented in the BP statistical review of world energy. The results are shown above. The sum of the differences is -7 years which on average is -0.3 years per country.

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