The Oil Drum

Back at the beginning of January I changed cars, and now drive a Camry Hybrid. It came with the usual displays for mpg, where the power was flowing and such, and for a month I played with looking at the different displays and then, as with most new toys, started to ignore them. However, pulling into the garage one night just over a month ago, I switched off the engine and a little “Excellent” appeared in a hitherto un-noticed final display on the dash. Now how do I confess this? Since then my driving habits have changed - more than I would freely admit - by the wish to be praised by a machine. The commute home is under three miles, and in somewhat hilly country so this requires a little effort on my part, but more often than not I now get that little glow of satisfaction from such a sign as I enter the house, generating a feeling that I am doing my part.

Well, not completely, and in terms of the greater scheme of things not even at any level of significance. The problem that we are coming to face is much larger, and more imminent than can be solved with simple small measures. Yet by touting the gains in efficiency through use of hybrid cars, or the growth rates of the solar and wind industries, one can convey to the general public that there is a considerable amount of technical progress being made in solving what “short term inconvenience” we might face as this “peak oil thingee” comes to pass and we have to live through it. The scale of the problem is glossed over, and the inadequacy of currently proposed solutions in their impact on the overall size of the problem is lost in the debate over issues that may be resolved with additional investment and time.

I have been a fan of Robert Bryce’s writing for a long time. His style is witty and entertaining, and he is a debunker-extraordinaire. His newest book, Gusher of Lies: The Dangerous Delusions of Energy Independence, is a must-read for anyone interested in energy issues. Concerning the topic of energy and the many myths associated with energy issues, this is a debunker’s bible.

In testimony before the House subcommittee on Energy & Resources in June, 2004, Vello A. Kuuskraa, president of Advanced Resources International (ARI), presented a graphic to members of congress showing huge potentially recoverable domestic reserves of stranded oil. This oil would be recovered by use of CO2 EOR (enhanced oil recovery). Here's an updated version of that graphic—from Undeveloped US oil resources: A big target for enhanced oil recovery — published in World Oil, August, 2006.

Figure 1

However, the problem of declining domestic oil production is not due to a lack of resources. We still have nearly 400 billion barrels of oil that is being left behind, "stranded". This is because our primary and secondary recovery methods recover only about one-third of the original oil in-place from our domestic oil fields, [Figure 1 above].

Numerous approaches are being tried to recover a portion of this "stranded" oil. The one with the highest, but still unrealized, potential is using CO2-enhanced oil recovery (CO2-EOR). Twenty years ago, enthusiasm for this idea was high.

Let's talk about what's going on here, considering the impact it will have on future U.S. domestic oil production and energy independence.

Update [2006-6-22 14:46:4 by Stuart Staniford]: I'm moving this story uptop again for anyone who managed to attend to report/discuss.

The Democratic Governors Association invites Oil Drummers to a conference call with Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm and Oregon Gov. Ted Kulongoski. The call is Thursday, June 22nd at 1:45 p.m. EDT/10:45 a.m. PDT. You have to RSVP and can submit a question at this page. I encourage anyone who has the time to show up, ask probing questions, and report back on what they have to say.

Update [2006-6-22 16:59:51 by Super G]: Our very own Robert Rapier listened in and even got to ask a question. Read his impressions in the comments.

MoveOn.org, a progressive advocacy organization with over 3 million members, recently held neighborhood meetings to discuss which issues the organization should prioritize in it's 2006 grassroots activities and campaign ads.

In an online poll of it's members on top 3 priorities for the next year, Healthcare just barely edged out Energy Independence by 4,000 votes. And Energy Independence had more than double the votes of Global Warming. I think this shows that Energy Independence (Rather than just environmentalism) is clearly high on the progressive agenda.

Courtesy of Kevin Drum, I just read a speech by Barack Obama, the Democratic senator for Illinois.

In this year's State of the Union address, President Bush told us that it was time to get serious about America's addiction to foreign oil. The next day, we found out that his idea didn't sit too well with the Saudi Royal Family. A few hours later, Energy Secretary Bodman backtracked and assured the world that even though the President said he planned to reduce the amount of oil we import from the Middle East, he actually didn't mean that literally.

If there's a single example out there that encapsulates the ability of unstable, undemocratic governments to wield undue influence over America's national security just because of our dependence on oil, this is it.