The Oil Drum

This is a brief account of the Energy Susbstitution Model developed by Cesare Marchetti in the 1970s at IIASA. Using data from the latest BP Statistical Review the evolution of the energy market is compared with the model to understand why the Hubbert Peak of fossils fuels represents a problem today.

The early Energy Substitution Model is described and analyzed in detail in the following papers:

Marchetti, C., 1977
Primary Energy Substitution Models: On the Interaction Between Energy and Society,
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 10:345—356

Marchetti, C., 1979
Energy Systems -- The Broader Context,
Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 14:191—203

Marchetti, C., and Nakicenovic, N., 1979
The Dynamics of Energy Systems and the Logistic Substitution Model part I part II,
RR-79-13, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

These documents often offer an optimistic view of the future, characteristic of the author.