Stories tagged with "energy transition"

Renewables Transition 3: The Precautionary Principle

Posted by jeffvail on September 15, 2009 - 10:27am
Topic: Policy/Politics
Tags: energy transition, eroei, net energy, original, peak oil, precautionary principle, renewable energy [list all tags]

In the first two posts in this series (1 and 2), I discussed the requirements and challenges of transitioning our global economy to renewable sources of energy. My interim conclusion was that there are serious doubts about our ability to affect any significant transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. Much of this uncertainty is the result of uncertain systemic energy return on energy invested. In other words, when all inputs are taken into account—as must be done where we’re talking about shifting energy sources on a civilizational level—can a world powered by solar and wind power itself the way it has on oil, gas, and coal?

The key take away is precisely this uncertainty: we simply don’t know if renewables—either current or potential future technology—will be up for the job. Where does that leave us? This discussion—and many others related to Peak Oil—is really a matter of what is known as the “Precautionary Principle,” or what degree of consensus is required before we embark on a course of action that may result in irreversible harm. Because the Precautionary Principle has such broad application in discussions of Peak Oil, I’ve modeled this post as a discussion of the principle itself, using the issue of renewables transition as but one example of its application.

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Renewable Transition 1: Targets & Troubles

Posted by jeffvail on July 21, 2009 - 10:15am
Topic: Alternative energy
Tags: energy transition, eroei, net energy, original, peak oil, renewable energy [list all tags]

In this series I will again approach the issue of energy return on energy invested (EROEI), or net energy. Rather than a detailed analysis of the EROEI value of specific types of renewable energy technology, however, my goal is to consider systemic implications and the role of uncertainty in the ability of our civilization to transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. In this first post I will discuss the challenges and potential goals of such a renewable energy transition, noting the criticality of EROEI values to our ability to transition. Next, I will look more closely at EROEI itself, exploring our inability to produce an accurate, inclusive, and verifiable measurement, and explain why the resulting degree of uncertainty is very significant. Finally, I will consider the path forward amidst this uncertainty.

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Fibber McGee, Molly, and Your Energy Future

Posted by Prof. Goose on June 27, 2009 - 12:15pm in The Oil Drum: Campfire
Topic: Sociology/Psychology
Tags: energy transition, future, propaganda, rationing [list all tags]

This is a post by Debbie Cook; Debbie is the former Mayor of Huntington Beach and a former congressional candidate. She currently serves as a board member of ASPO-USA and Post Carbon Institute.

Several weeks ago at the Harmony Festival in Santa Rosa, California, Richard Heinberg told a audience member not to hold her vision of the future too tightly. Sound advice that I wrote on a scrap of paper and put in my pocket. This past week his words came back to me as I found myself in a two hour conversation with two peak oil aware friends who wanted to discuss the future. One friend had decided he was going to immigrate with his sister to New Zealand. Having recently returned from New Zealand I could certainly understand the attraction. But I (who am often accused of being a doomer) suggested he consider many scenarios when thinking about the energy transition and reminded him of Mark Twain’s words, there’s so much people know that ain’t so.

We tend to seek information that confirms our beliefs rather than looking for that which contradicts it. It is our tendency to be more sure the less we know, and less sure, the more we know.

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Energy Transitions Past and Future

Posted by Prof. Goose on July 1, 2008 - 10:40am
Topic: Alternative energy
Tags: cutler cleveland, energy density, energy transition, environment, intermittancy, net energy, power density, spatial distribution [list all tags]

This is a guest post from Cutler Cleveland. It provides an excellent big picture overview of what variables we need to consider as we transition away from fossil fuels. Professor Cleveland previously wrote "Energy From Wind - A Discussion of the EROI Research", and "Ten Fundamental Principles of Net Energy" posted on theoildrum.com. Cutler Cleveland is a Professor at Boston University and has been researching and writing on energy issues for over 20 years. He is Editor-in-Chief of the Encyclopedia of Earth, Editor-in-Chief of the Encyclopedia of Energy, the Dictionary of Energy and the Journal of Ecological Economics.

Prometheus chained to Mount Caucasus. Source: Pieter Paul Rubens: ''Prometheus Bound,'' 1611-1612, Oil on canvas, 95 7/8" x 82 1/2". (Philadelphia Museum of Art: The W.P. Wilstach Collection) Click to Enlarge

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Energy Grades and Historic Economic Growth

Posted by Nate Hagens on August 24, 2007 - 10:30am
Topic: Economics/Finance
Tags: energy density, energy transition, environment, intermittancy, net energy, power density, spatial distribution [list all tags]

This is a guest post by oil and energy economist Douglas Reynolds. Dr. Reynolds is Graduate Director of Economics at the University of Alaska Fairbanks, and author of "Scarcity and Growth Considering Oil and Energy", and "Alaska and North Slope Natural Gas". Doug has a prior guest post on theoildrum on The Energy Utilization Chain. This post offers a different but related perspective on energy comparisons and transitions than last weeks post on Energy Transitions by Professor Cutler Cleveland.

1. Weight Grade

The weight grade determines how much energy there is per pound of energy resource. For example, coal has about 12.7 thousand BTU/lb, natural gas about 10 thousand BTU/lb, oil about 19.3 thousand BTU/lb, and an electric battery typically has 100 BTU/lb. Electric batteries then are very heavy compared to their energy output which is why electric cars do not have very good driving ranges.

Professor Reynolds' paper is below the fold.

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Energy Transitions Past and Future

Posted by Nate Hagens on August 8, 2007 - 10:30am
Topic: Alternative energy
Tags: cutler cleveland, energy density, energy transition, environment, intermittancy, net energy, power density, spatial distribution [list all tags]

This is a guest post from Cutler Cleveland. It provides an excellent big picture overview of what variables we need to consider as we transition away from fossil fuels. Professor Cleveland previously wrote "Energy From Wind - A Discussion of the EROI Research", and "Ten Fundamental Principles of Net Energy" posted on theoildrum.com. Cutler Cleveland is a Professor at Boston University and has been researching and writing on energy issues for over 20 years. He is Editor-in-Chief of the Encyclopedia of Earth, Editor-in-Chief of the Encyclopedia of Energy, the Dictionary of Energy and the Journal of Ecological Economics


Prometheus chained to Mount Caucasus. Source: Pieter Paul Rubens: ''Prometheus Bound,'' 1611-1612, Oil on canvas, 95 7/8" x 82 1/2". (Philadelphia Museum of Art: The W.P. Wilstach Collection) Click to Enlarge

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