Stories tagged with "europe"

Some predictions on the forthcoming Russian-Ukrainian gas 'crisis'

We've recently heard more veiled threats from Putin about Ukraine being unable to pay for gas (thus presumably leading to new attempts at cutting them off), which suggests that Russia is getting itself ready to start a new crisis. That means two things:

  1. the internal infighting between groups of powerful Russian and Ukrainian oligarchs for the control of unofficial Russian gas deliveries to Ukraine (more on this below) is still not conclusively settled, and requires "action" using official levers of State and interference with Gazprom's export deliveries through Ukraine;
  2. Russia thinks it stands a better chance to focus European blame on Ukraine and, even more importantly, to get Europeans to buy off the Ukrainians (thereby increasing the available unofficial gas loot for the players involved).
While Russia's actions are not easily understandable when considered as those of a country, they are much easier to interpret rationally when you look at who the actual players behind the scenes are. Conversely, public European reactions which sound logical are, in fact, incredibly naive if you know the industry a bit and, given that the people involved are certainly not naive, they are other things at stake.

So let's try to make some predictions and unravel what's actually going on.

Originally posted on European Tribune. See also my full series of articles on earlier episodes of the Russian-Ukrainian crises here

The Future of European Transport: iTREN-2030

On 21 October the final workshop was held in Brussels (Belgium) of the integrated transport and energy baseline until 2030 (iTREN-2030) modeling project. At the workshop a final scenario was presented that incorporated likely transport and energy policies, and the effects on European transport of a continued global plateau in oil production up to 2030. The integrated scenario was generated by four energy and transport models that have been linked in iTREN-2030 to increase the forecasting power of the transport policies of the European Commission.

In this post I describe the iTREN-2030 project and the different models, covering the POLES global energy supply and demand model in more detail, highlight the conclusions of the present integrated scenario, and give my reflection on the workshop commenting on some areas of improvement to augment the potential of the models.

The iTREN-2030 project is all the more important because the resulting model set and integrated scenario will be used by the European Commission (DG-Tren) in preparing the white paper on transport policies due for 2010. After discussion with the European Parliament and approval by the council of Minister, the European Union will as a result have set out its new course for the future of transport in the period up to 2020.

EuroElections 2009 : GUE/NGL

This series concludes by visiting a political bloc that represents another major philosophical current in Europe. The Confederal Group of the European United Left – Nordic Green Left (GUE-NGL) is the Scientific Socialist reference at the European Parliament. Although composed at its core by state-level Communist parties, it also brings together some less Scientific parties that haven't yielded to Liberalism. More than sharing a philosophy, GUE-NGL members share a common reluctance towards the Europen Construction process, at least in its current form.

Editors' note: Apologies to readers. Luis completed this post a few days ago, but through a mix-up on the editorial end, it did not get promptly posted. Since these parties have platforms that may still be of interest, we offer it to you at this late date.

EuroElections 2009 : Greens-EFA

This round through the European political landscape now leaves the parties more used to power and starts dealing with those found more often in the opposition. The Greens – European Free Alliance (Greens-EFA) is the fifth largest political block at Parliament, with little over 5% of the seats. Greens-EFA is a coalition largely composed by state-level Green Parties plus a small number of Regionalist deputies. After an all-time high close to 10% in 1999 the party had what can be called a disappointing result in 2004. Embarking on a worldwide effort to promote its ideologies by the midst of the current term, it is quite possible that the Greens-EFA may reach a relevant stake at Parliament this time.

EuroElections 2009 : ALDE

This series on the Energy Policies put forward by the main parties running for the European Parliament moves on, leaving the heavyweights and bringing focus to smaller political groups. The Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) is the main political group at the centre, pretty much in between EPP-ED and PES. It is the major Liberal reference in Europe, as in the member states where it is represented.

EuroElections 2009 : PES

This is the second installment in a series, that attempts to summarize the Energy policies put forward by the main political blocs running for the European Parliament. This analysis is on the Party of European Socialists - PES. It is the eternal runner up behind EPP-ED, never getting more than one third of the seats at the euro-chamber. Nonetheless, through the alternating democratic process at state level, it has had also a relevant role in shaping the European Union to what it is today.

Andris Piebalgs : it may have peaked.

When public office holders approach the ends of their terms, they sometimes feel less constrained by political correctness. That's precisely what seems to be happening with European Energy Commissioner Andris Piebalgs. In a note that could be your regular post on The Oil Drum, the Commissioner talks about peak oil in the past tense and warns that present oil prices at relatively low figures are simply transient.

Below the fold is the 8th May entry to the Energy Commisioner's weblog is reproduced in its entirety, for such words from a such stakeholder are a precious thing.

EuroElections 2009 : EPP-ED

This post is the first in a series of posts looking at the policies in the field of energy proposed by the main political parties/blocks running for the 2009-2014 term at the European Parliament. This series will look into the guidelines on Energy Policy that each party is proposing to euro-citizens, based on the information made available on-line, found in home-pages, electronic leaflets or booklets.

Starting this series is the EPP-ED, the Christian-Democrat block that has held the largest number of seats at Strasbourg since the Assembly's first day.

Gas Crisis Raised in UK Parliament

[There follows a comment made by Undertow in Friday's Drumbeat that I felt deserved some broader exposure and debate. We are not certain that all the figures presented here are correct - so if anyone disagrees please let us know in the comments.]

This week's European Gas Storage figures are out. I decided to put the figures in the form used by the EIA. Keep in mind that European Union storage is about half that of the US.

Working gas in storage was 534 Bcf as of Monday, March 9, 2009, according to estimates. This represents a net decline of 61 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 280 Bcf lower than last year at this time.

Switching back to metric. Stocks are now approximately 8 bcm below last year (last week was 7.2 bcm lower than the same week last year - get the picture here...). European storage is now down to about 30% as compared to about 46% this time last year. Storage continues to decline at a rate of around 100 mcm/day faster than last year and has done so ever since the Russian production collapse.

SER-2 [03] Communication of the Security and Solidarity Action Plan

Continuing the analysis of the Second Strategic Energy Review (SER-2), the focus this time is on the document entitled “Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, The European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions". This is a formal document that details the Energy Security and Solidarity Action Plan, presented in the Memo reviewed last time.

This post tries to highlight important aspects that aren't referenced in the Memo and presents the implementation steps proposed by the Commission to put the Plan into practice.


Update: Over at the European Tribune an effort is being taken for a common reply to the Public Consultation on the Green Paper Towards a Secure, Sustainable and Competitive European Energy Network. Come and join in.