Articles tagged with "Export Land Model"
Under what conditions will a technology be able to survive the energy contraction associated with the depletion of fossil fuels? Which types of technologies are sustainable in a world that can only make use of resources that it is producing on its own rather than relying on resources that it inherited from the past? This article, co-authored by Dr. Rodrigo Castro of the University of Buenos Aires, proposes emergy as a physically sound metric of sustainability. Without taking emergy into account, long-term energy analysis may lead to erroneous conclusions with potentially catastrophic consequences.
Posted by Heading Out on March 20, 2011 - 10:03am
Tags: argentina, crude oil production, egypt, export land model, india, natural gas production, oil exports, oman [list all tags]
In 2008, there were nine countries that produced between 500 kbd and 1 mbd, according to the EIA. Of these, Azerbaijan has been able to increase production to just over 1 mbd, and I wrote about it last week. Therefore, let me look at the first four of the remainder – India, Argentina, Egypt, and Oman, in this post. The latter two are some of those countries where popular protests have, in one case, brought down the government, and in the other,have caused some changes to be made. How this will play out in terms of oil production and oil exports remains one of the questions which is currently unanswerable.
India was producing 888 kbd of oil in 2008. It is a country with recognized growing demand for oil, to the point that Libya’s Gadaffi has offered it the chance (along with Russia and China) to replace Western companies who have shut down operations because of the turmoil. The growing internal demand for vehicular liquid fuel, remembering that India was the country that introduced the Tata Nano, is reaching record levels. Growth for different sectors of that market are rising at more than 10% a year.
Local car sales jumped 23% from a year earlier in February to 189,008 vehicles, according to data issued Wednesday by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, an industry lobby group. The figure is more than January's all-time monthly record sales of 184,332 cars.
Indian demand for oil is now more that 2 mbd above domestic production and the country is increasingly dependent on imports. In 2009, the EIA showed where these came from:
This is a guest post by George C. Lordos, of Nicosia, Cyprus, known as Lumina at The Oil Drum. He has degrees in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from Christ Church College at Oxford University and in Business Administration from the MIT Sloan School of Management, where he specialized on strategy, finance and system dynamics. George has business interests as a Principal/Chairman in food trading, energy efficiency, renewable energy and information technology. He also makes a hobby of blogging about sustainability, energy and finance. George's blog is at baobab2050.org.
The Export Land Model of forecasting future oil supplies available for sale to oil importing economies, which as far as I know was first presented at the 2007 ASPO-USA conference by its authors Sam Foucher and Jeffrey J. Brown, takes my “Cassandra Prize” for its importance and for the deafening silence with which stakeholders have been reacting to it, despite the mainstream media giving it some coverage.
In this post, I use a different way of grouping countries to confirm key insights of the Export Land Model.
It’s the start of a new Semester, and at the beginning of my Power class I spend the first lecture reviewing where I think we stand on the Energy supply to the United States. This has changed a bit since last year and so I thought I would run through some of the changes that I made to my lecture this year, in the same way as I did last September. Since the greatest impact is likely to come from the changing sources of supply that the US has had to go to, with the change in levels of production, I began with this slide:
Posted by jeffvail on February 14, 2009 - 10:49am
Tags: export land model, feedback loops, geopolitics, mercantilism, nationalism, peak oil, privateering, return on investment [list all tags]
It is quite common to hear experts explain that the current tight oil markets are due to “above-ground factors,” and not a result of a global peaking in oil production. In reality, geological peaking is driving the geopolitical events that constitute the most significant “above-ground factors” such as the chaos in Iraq and Nigeria, the nationalization in Venezuela and Bolivia, etc. Geological peaking spawns positive feedback loops within the geopolitical system. Critically, these loops are not separable from the geological events—they are part of the broader “system” of Peak Oil.
Posted by jeffvail on September 8, 2008 - 10:30am
Tags: corruption, export land model, feedback loops, geopolitical feedback loops, geopolitics, nationalism, original, resource ownership, roi, targeting [list all tags]
Figure 1: Does the state own oil reserves or the nation? When the two are contiguous it makes little difference, but as they become increasingly dissimilar the dispute drives conflict. While I haven't divided the feedback loops explicitly along ownership lines, this graphic may help conceptualize these processes as a single system.
This is a guest post by Jeffrey J. Brown, known on TOD as westexas. Jeff is an independent petroleum geologist in the Dallas, Texas area. His e-mail address is firstname.lastname@example.org.
Building on prior work by many people, including Matt Simmons and Kenneth Deffeyes, and largely based on great technical work by Khebab, I have been intensively studying the Net Oil Export issue for more than two years.
The simple mathematical model I have been using to talk about our export situation is called the Export Land Model (ELM). Recently, data and media reports have shown that the concerns I have expressed about our export situation are growing more valid each day.
Venezuela and Mexico are critically important to the US because of their proximity to the refineries on the Gulf Coast. From what I have been able to discern, it takes an average of about five days for a tanker to get to the US from Venezuela and Mexico versus about 30 days from the Persian Gulf. Based on recent news reports, it certainly appears that the overall net export decline from Venezuela and Mexico is continuing into 2008.
So, what has happened to net oil exports from Venezuela & Mexico to the US and what effect has had this had on Gulf Coast crude oil inventories, and why am I concerned?
I normally try to be a “Good News” kind of guy, but today I bring bad tidings. Despite my previous claims that Australia is The Place To Be, we are in for some tough times here.
The concept is deceptively simple:
Oil producing countries service internal markets first, and then export their surplus. Observations of oil exporting countries show that their internal markets continue to grow rapidly even after the peak. So their exports are hit by 2 factors - declining production and increasing domestic consumption. As a result, their export capacity drops with unexpected rapidity.
An Example: Precipitous Decline In Net Exports From Indonesia.
Source: Matt Mushalik, based on data from http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/country/index.cfm
CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) -- Venezuela's state oil company said Tuesday that it has stopped selling crude to Exxon Mobil Corp. in response to the U.S. oil company's drive to use the courts to seize billions of dollars in Venezuelan assets.
Exxon Mobil is locked in a dispute over the nationalization of its oil ventures in Venezuela that has led President Hugo Chavez to threaten to cut off all Venezuelan oil supplies to the United States. Venezuela is the United States' fourth largest oil supplier.
Have at it.