The Oil Drum

On 5th December 2007 Fatih Birol, Chief Economist and Head of the Economic Analysis Division of the International Energy Agency (IEA) gave a presentation in London at the Shell Centre, hosted by the British Institute of Energy Economics (BIEE). Mike Pepler attended the meeting and took the following notes (his personal comments are in italics):

Introduction

·         We are on the eve of a new world energy order.

·         On the supply side, we have oil production outside the core OPEC countries reaching a peak, which is not good news for the International Oil Companies (IOCs). The National Oil Companies (NOCs) will determine future oil supply.

·         On the demand side, China and India are transforming global energy markets through their sheer size and rate of economic growth.

·         Between now and 2030, China and India will account for 70% of new global oil demand, and 80% of new coal demand.

In a stunning interview for the French (reference) daily Le Monde, Fatih Birol, the chief economist of the International Energy Agency (i.e. the intergovernmental body created after the oil shocks of the 70s to coordinate the West's reaction to energy crises) effectively says that peak oil is just around the corner, and that without Iraqi oil, we'll be in deep trouble by 2015:

Si la production n'augmente pas en Irak de manière exponentielle d'ici à 2015, nous avons un très gros problème, même si l'Arabie saoudite respecte ses engagements. Les chiffres sont très simples, il n'y a pas besoin d'être un expert.

If Iraqi production does not rise exponentially by 2015, we have a very big problem, even if Saudi Arabia fulfills all its promises. The numbers are very simple, there's no need to be an expert

And as long as the US occupies Iraq, production will not increase... Houston, we have a problem...