Stories tagged with "finance"

Information and Crude Complexity

This is a guest post by WebHubbleTelescope.
Abstract (please read this as a set of squished-together PowerPoint bullet points):

People become afraid when you mention theory. Everyone talks about entropy without actually understanding it. Simplicity can come out of complexity. "Knowledge" remains a slippery thing. We think that science flows linearly as previous knowledge get displaced with new knowledge. Peak oil lies in this transition much like plate tectonics at one time existed outside of the core knowledge. We define knowledge by whatever the scientific community currently believes. “Facts are not knowledge. Facts are facts, but how they form the big picture, are interconnected and hold meaning, creates knowledge. It is this connectivity, which leads to breakthroughs …” You will either think you understand the following post, or know for a fact that you don't.


Offshore wind finance: 3 for 3

Belgian and Dutch investors join EIB and banks in Belwind rescue

(24 Jul 2009)

Banks have signed the most important European renewable energy project financing of 2009 so far, after a band of Low Countries investors bought the Belwind offshore wind farm from the failed Econcern group.

The deal, one of the most encouraging pointers so far that the worst of the credit crunch may be easing for clean energy, sees the European Investment Bank agree to lend EUR 300m towards a EUR 482.5m (USD 686.4m), 15-year debt package for Belwind.

The remaining EUR 182.5m of the long-term debt is being provided by [commercial banks]

This is the transaction I have been working on for over a year and a half and, between my bank's bailout, the credit crunch or my client's bankruptcy, it's been a rather stressful process - and an altogether too busy one, as may have attested my lack of presence on the Oil Drum in recent months.

It's the biggest offshore wind farm to be project-financed, it's the first to be financed that way since the credit crisis (and the third only altogether), and it's the first time the European Investment Bank (a multilateral financial institution, and the EU's official tool to finance large projects in and around the zone) is involved in taking project risk in the sector, following the clear push from EU governments over the past year.

Umbrella View of Resource Depletion and Human Behaviour

This is a slide video of the presentation I asked Nate Hagens to give at the Oil Drum/ASPO Conference at Alcatraz, Italy in June 2009. It contains a concise summary of many issues related to depletion, energy supply, human behaviour and the financial system. More background material can be found in the articles by Nate Hagens linked below the fold. The presentation itself can be downloaded here: Umbrella View of Resource Depletion and Human Behaviour, PDF 148 slides, 8.7 MB.

Umbrella View of Resource Depletion & Human Behaviour from Rembrandt Koppelaar on Vimeo.

Further Evidence of the Influence of Energy on the U.S. Economy


Gail, Jeff Rubin , and now James Hamilton (warning- pdf) of the University of California – San Diego have produced literature correlating either this financial collapse or recessions more generally with peak oil and oil prices. The take-away message of their work is that oil prices played a fundamental role in causing the current recession and many previous recessions. In this post I, along with Steve Balogh, a fellow researcher here at the EROI Institute at SUNY-ESF, will add to this discourse.

Herman Daly: The Disconnection Between Financial Assets and Real Asssets

This is a repost of Herman Daly's comments on the credit crisis from October 13 of this year. The original post and comments can be viewed here. Given Professor Daly's association with John Holdren, one can hope these heterodox first principles are being discussed at the highest levels.

Previously, Herman Daly wrote a guest post on the Steady State Economy, outlining core suggestions on how to overhaul our banking, financial (and value) systems. I encourage everyone to read it (if short on time, please read the conclusion). Professor Daly was Senior Economist at the World Bank before leaving to teach Ecological Economics at University of Maryland's School for Public Policy. He was also the catalyst for me to leave my own financial career and return to school to study the real economy (i.e. what we call the human economy is only a small part of a larger closed system). Below the fold are his thoughts on the current crisis (current being defined as last 30-40 years or so). (For comparison, here are links to what 'mainstream' economic icons George Soros, and Bill Gross are saying.)

A Resilient Suburbia? 1: Sunk Cost & Credit Markets

peak oil challenges suburbia, but what are the alternatives?

Many argue that suburbia was a terrible idea—a giant waste of land, capital, and culture. I largely agree. But there you have it: suburbia happened, with no refund available. It is a sunk cost—not only the millions of homes, but the vast infrastructure for transportation, employment, governance, and distribution that is fundamentally intertwined with the suburban model. Looking into a future of energy scarcity and economic challenge, it is time for the discussion to shift from “suburbia sucks” to “what are we going to do about it?” Is it possible to build a vibrant, sustainable, and self-sufficient civilization on the framework of existing suburban development? More importantly, is there any viable alternative? This four-part series will take a critical look at suburbia in an environment of peak oil, beginning with this post’s discussion of sunk costs and credit markets as they impact our options.

What Career Should I Consider?

This is a slightly abridged version of an actual letter from a reader and my answer, regarding a change in career in the light of peak oil. What would you have said? This reader was not from the US. How would advice differ for different parts of the world?

Dear Gail:

I read some of your posts on The Oil Drum, and I wanted to ask you a question. Taking into consideration peak oil, what careers are likely to be better places in the years ahead?

(continued under the fold)

The Borg: A Financial Allegory

This is an allegory explaining some of the monetary issues associated with the current financial crisis. It was written by Jason Bradford. Jason was an academic biologist who "retired" at a young age to become a community organizer and learn how to farm with peak oil in mind. He also hosts a biweekly radio show on public radio called The Reality Report.

I have never been a huge follower of Star Trek, but when thinking about the financial beast thrashing about the Borg comes to mind.


"I am Locutus of Borg. Resistance is futile. Your life as it has been is over. From this time forward, you will service us." - Locutus of Borg.

"Strength is irrelevant. Resistance is futile...Your culture will adapt to service ours." -- The Borg.

The Borg is a hive-like hybrid swarm of humanoid species, turned partially robotic. They are distinctly goal oriented towards “assimilation” of all other humanoids and press themselves relentlessly with the creepy mantra “Resistance is futile.”

The money system is eerily Borg-like. Because it structurally requires growth, it works relentlessly to assimilate all forms of capital. The natural consequence is that everything must be for sale. Values of freedom, independence, self-reliance, and even conservation are subservient to the goal of growth—which is really just growth of the financial Borg, not human welfare or the security of a habitable planet.

Some Lessons from Bailout Month

Despite the first rejection of the Paulson Plan, the effort is ongoing in Washington to push through a plan that is likely to be substantially similar to the first one (as far as I can tell, the only changes will be tax cuts and the inclusion of the renewable energy bill items). Given the overwhelming pressure to "do something", and despite warnings that we are being rushed for no reason into a terrible plan, it is rather unlikely that the final version of the plan is going to be very satisfactory. In any case, the following will hold true irrespective of the outcome of the Paulson Plan.

(Note: This was written for the European Tribune this week-end, ie before the rejection of the plan by Congress, and before the most recent bank bailouts, but its conclusions stand)

  • the consequences of the financial crisis are so dire that the lesson here should not be that a bailout is necessary (it is, at this point) - but to acknowledge that the financial sector has the power to hold the rest of the economy to ransom during both good times and bad times and thus that it need to be emasculated so that we never get again to the stage where a bailout is necessary. The lesson is that the financial world cannot behave responsibly, if left to its own devices and thus should not be left to its own devices;
  • another is that the main argument to give financial markets a free hand — that they have created so much growth and prosperity — needs to be called for what it is: a lie. Not only the so-called prosperity of the past year was highly unequally shared (see the next point), but it was not even real, as the income and profits of the good years are now dwarfed by the losses of today. Arguments about growth need to be dismissed by a reference to the "full cycle," i.e. the prosperity of the recent past can only be accepted as real if it wasn't a capture of the prosperity of today and the near future. If the forthcoming growth and GDP numbers are dismal, this should be seen as a direct proof that the growth of the past was nothing but, and that the policy prescriptions focused on financial profit are abject failures;

The bank panic

The Financial Times is (rightly) worried:

Banks are not to be trusted. This is not just the view of the public and policymakers, but that of the banks themselves.

And indeed, the most notable thing over the past year has been the general mistrust amongst banks, and their reluctance to lend to one another. This graph shows a direct indicator of the level of defiance between banks:


Via Mish

-- Initially posted on European Tribune, where we've had many good threads on the financial crisis and the bailout.