The Oil Drum

Updated 13-06-2008 at 19h00 (GMT+01h00).

It all started in Spain, it quickly spread to Portugal and southern France. Lorry drivers are on the streets and on roads protesting against high fuel prices and bringing normal day life to a stand still.


Spanish lorry drivers blocking main access roads to Madrid.

That title is no surprise, no serving government minister has spoken on the record about an imminent global oil peak and no government publication (I'm aware of) has addressed the subject. The 2003 Energy White Paper sums up the governments position on oil with this statement:

World wide fossil fuel resources are very large. Oil is the world's most important fuel, accounting for 40% of global primary energy consumption. Its share in 2020 is likely to be at a similar level. Globally, conventional oil reserves are sufficient to meet projected demand for around 30 years, although new discoveries will be needed to renew reserves. Together with non-conventional reserves such as oil shales and improvements in technology, there is the potential for oil reserves to last twice as long. Proven gas reserves would meet at least 45 years of demand and there remains vast potential beyond this. (Energy White Paper 2003)

I know of many people who have written to their respective member of parliament asking about peak oil who have all revived almost identical responses quoting the Energy White Paper.

It should be clear to most Oil Drum readers that the government's assumption is incorrect. That in itself is cause for concern but perhaps more worrying is what being justified and done on the strength of that assumption.

This is the first in a series of articles looking at the decisions and probable mistakes that are currently being made directly due to governments position on peak oil.

First area to consider is aviation.

Long before there were cars and trucks clogging our roads and delivering nearly all our food and goods, New York City was the Transport Capital of North America. Today, New York mostly just moves around people and paper (or electronic) money instead of food or manufactured goods. However, with solid planning and investment now, the city prepare for a lower energy future and can regain it's place as a major trading hub of goods.

New York's early position has a transportation hub was because of its ability to handle large amounts of water borne traffic. Water is still the least energy intensive mode of transportation for bulk goods. New York has a world class deep water harbor connected to a world class river (Hudson), which is in turn connected to the Erie canal (finished in 1825) and the Great Lakes. This connects an enormous amount of good farm land with a port where goods can be traded from around the region and beyond.

Then in the 19th Century New York became the Center of a the Northeast rail network which ultimately ran from coast to coast, with NYC as a major import/export point for trade with Europe. This florishing of commerce built the foundation of the city's advantage as a financial hub for the 20th Century.