The Oil Drum

I am very fond of thought experiments. I like to ask "What If?" This can help me wrap my head around a problem. For instance, if I wonder how much land it would take for solar panels to produce enough electricity to supply the U.S., that's a thought experiment. It isn't that I think we are going to build a solar grid that is 50 by 50 miles of nothing but solar panels, nor that I am oblivious to energy storage issues. Rather, it can help frame for me whether the idea is daft from conception, or whether there is a nugget of potential embedded within.

Lately I have been thinking of another thought experiment. What would I, personally, do if gasoline was $100 a gallon? Now that may seem silly. Nobody thinks we are going to have to deal with gasoline at $100 a gallon. But that misses the point of the thought experiment. When I ask people at what price point gasoline is going to have a major impact on their lifestyle, that seems to be a moving target. When gas was $2, they said $4. Now that gas is $4, many have realized they won't make big changes at $10. Oh, they might buy a smaller car, but they aren't going to start walking 3 miles to the store. A friend who drives a Suburban recently told me that he doesn't care about gas prices; that he is going to keep driving at the same rate regardless. I bet he would have a change of heart if gasoline was $100 a gallon.

This is a guest post by Lorna Li, a dedicated a Green activist, rainforest crusader, social innovator, and technology enthusiast.

Recently, a large group of auto workers and dealers have broken from the industry in order to support the 35 mpg by 2020 fuel efficiency standard that is currently being debated by Congress. This is the latest high-profile group that has joined the ranks of a broad coalition of environmental organizations, student groups, musicians, and trade associations that have been lobbying Congress to pass a strong, clean 2007 Energy Bill.

Fuel efficiency has been one of the more contentious items on the legislative agenda this year, with the House and the Senate deeply divided over the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standard, a proposal that calls for auto manufacturers to increase fuel efficiency to 35 mpg for cars, SUVs, and light trucks.

Sometimes I am astonished at the misconceptions people have. Take this article:

Old cars become green machines

The story is about a woman who has a number of cars that have been modified to run off of biodiesel. The cars include gas guzzlers like a Lincoln Continental Mark V, a Chevy Tahoe, and a Cadillac. But because she is running them on biodiesel, she thinks she is neither using oil nor polluting:

Colette Brooks' sprawling ocean-view property* is dotted with tricked out cars -- from a low-rider Lincoln Continental to a Cadillac with plush leather seats. The petite 49-year-old business owner might be a car junkie, but she's indulging her obsession without polluting the air by running her rides on biodiesel and other alternative fuels.

"I feel so superior driving next to a Hummer and going, ‘Dude, yo, look at this, this is what you should be doing,' " Brooks said.

ED by PG: This article was originally posted December 20, 2006. Note that it has been resubmitted to reddit and digg this morning, so do help spread the word and give Stuart some more readers if you are so inclined. Send the link to someone today.

US finished motor gasoline supplied, 1945-2005, together with scenarios for 1.7% growth, and 2% and 3% declines from 2007 to 2045. Quantities expressed in millions of barrels per day. Click to enlarge. Source: US EIA for historical data. See text for scenario rationale.

The ethanol bubble has been bursting a bit lately. I don't say that with glee, because I hate to see people lose money, especially when it was due largely to misleading claims. (I say that even though 95% of the hate mail I get comes from ethanol investors). I hope the end of the irrational exuberance we have seen in the ethanol market will lead to a more fact-based look at which technologies are needed to replace or supplement fossil fuels, and what technical challenges must be overcome before that happens.

Update [2006-5-17 18:31:22 by Dave]: I've added some 3rd day notes at the bottom of the story.

I am driving I70 from Boulder on my way to Pittsburgh in my 1988 blue VW Jetta.

Dave's Car (not really, but close!)

So with oil a shade under $70/barrel and gasoline at about $2.80/gallon on the interstate in the Midwest, I thought I'd report on what's going on out here. I hope you'll add your comments to this brief road trip report. I'm sure many of you have plenty of experiences to report.

When I was in North Carolina a couple of weeks ago, people asked me if we had driven or flown. Well, we flew. Coming from New York, the maximum driving distance for a weekend trip for me is about 4 hours. I'll go to Boston or Washington, but that's it. I think we all know that planes are less efficient than cars, but I wasn't sure how much, so I crunched the numbers for two factors: CO2 emissions, and fuel consumption.

Disclaimer: I warn from the start that these are the proverbial back of the envelope calculations.