The Oil Drum

There has been the occasional story popping up in Drumbeat over this past week or so about the severe winter and gas shortages in Iran, and their resulting cut in supplies to Turkey. The Iranian domestic shortage was supposed to be made up from Turkmenistan. Unfortunately the shortfall from Iran to Turkey was supposed to be made up by increased supplies from Russia, but those also are falling short. About a year ago we saw some of the same discussion about supplies from Turkmenistan, through Russia, to Europe, with shortfalls and price increases – particularly relating to the gas supplies to Ukraine, through which the pipelines flow. At the end of that discussion the Turkmen got an increase in the price of their gas. It is therefore not surprising to see that Turkmenistan is seeking to double the price it gets from Iran.

It may seem strange, in a week where traders were actually paying folk to buy their natural gas, but I am still a little disquieted about our medium term natural gas situation. (I was going to say long-term but 2010 isn't that far away any longer).

The feeling was regenerated when a reader directed us to Robert Amsterdam's site. Currently he is posting about the story in today's NYT dealing with the construction of the new LNG port at Sabine Pass, LA.. The port is one of several that is being built to bring foreign natural gas to help with the coming shortage in the US. To quote CERA, as the article does:

Liquefied natural gas represents only a 3 percent share of total American natural gas consumption, which is mostly used for industrial purposes and home heating. Cambridge Energy Research Associates estimates that imported liquefied natural gas will account for 10 percent of American use by 2010, and potentially as much as 25 percent by 2020.

Bob Amsterdam believes that by 2010 this 10% will largely come from Russia in general, and our friends in Gazprom in particular, with the projected source of supply likely being Shtokman.