LATEST Russia will resume gas exports to Europe as soon as EU monitors arrive at gas compressor stations along the route, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said.

With news breaking that Russia has just suspended all exports of gas to and through Ukraine, what will the impact be on Europe and why has Russia chosen once again to take such drastic action?

Exports of gas from Russia fell 6% between 2006 and 2007 according to the BP statistical review of world energy. Production fell from 612.1 to 607.4 billion cubic meters (bcm) per annum and domestic consumption rose from 432.1 to 438.8 bcm per annum leading to a fall in exported gas.

Is Russia withholding gas supplies leading to higher prices and manipulation of its market position? Or is the Russian gas supply system unable to meet demand?

This was posted in May 2007 and is worth reposting today given the new context of tense relations with Russia and worries/suspicion/empty talk about "energy weapons." The original post is built as a discussion an an Economist article about Russian gas (A bear at the throat) published in April 2007. Back then, "it took legitimate (if often poorly informed) worries about Russia's sometimes blustering behavior on the energy markets to peddle the usual insane crap that market liberalisation is the only solution to promote energy security." Today, the focus seems to be more on the geopolitical threat the Russia represents, but the conclusion is still, of course, about the incompetence and failure of continental Europe - this time not to liberalize, but rather to 'stand up' to Russia's bullying. Below, the original post, with some additional comments written today in italics and [between brackets]).

[Last year] I spoke at a debate on Gazprom at IFRI, a French think tank. That conference was organised after the publication of two quite different articles about Gazprom:

Gazprom as a Predictable Partner. Another Reading of the Russian-Ukrainian and Russian-Belarusian Energy Crises by Jérôme Guillet
Gazprom, the Fastest Way to Energy Suicide by Christophe-Alexandre Paillard

The titles give a hint that the papers start from pretty different positions - as you can see in the executive summaries of each that I am posting below, [but they in fact reach fairly similar conclusions, which are still relevant today]

There has been the occasional story popping up in Drumbeat over this past week or so about the severe winter and gas shortages in Iran, and their resulting cut in supplies to Turkey. The Iranian domestic shortage was supposed to be made up from Turkmenistan. Unfortunately the shortfall from Iran to Turkey was supposed to be made up by increased supplies from Russia, but those also are falling short. About a year ago we saw some of the same discussion about supplies from Turkmenistan, through Russia, to Europe, with shortfalls and price increases – particularly relating to the gas supplies to Ukraine, through which the pipelines flow. At the end of that discussion the Turkmen got an increase in the price of their gas. It is therefore not surprising to see that Turkmenistan is seeking to double the price it gets from Iran.

I've been struggling for two weeks with the article in the Economist about Russian gas (A bear at the throat) as it takes legitimate (if often poorly informed) worries about Russia's sometimes blustering behavior on the energy markets to peddle the usual insane crap that market liberalisation is the only solution to promote energy security (I'll get to why I think it is insane below).

But two days ago, I spoke at a debate on Gazprom at IFRI, a French think tank. That conference was organised after the publication of two quite different articles about Gazprom:

Gazprom as a Predictable Partner. Another Reading of the Russian-Ukrainian and Russian-Belarusian Energy Crises by Jérôme Guillet
Gazprom, the Fastest Way to Energy Suicide by Christophe-Alexandre Paillard

The titles give a hint that the papers start from pretty different positions - as you can see in the executive summaries of each that I am posting below. Before jumping in, I'll flag that I am identified as an Oil Drum contributing editor in the paper, so the good name of the site is slowly spreading around...