(Welcome: we are now on a later and more updated thread, which can be found here: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4525 NB: you may want to just go the front page (it will be post #1 or #2) to get to the most recent thread: http://theoildrum.com ...)

(all the maps and models moved under the fold to conserve bandwidth...scroll down)

Updated 9/12 2300 EDT--next update in the morning when we know more about where and how much power/wind was involved. Hurricane Ike's current track currently is headed directly for Houston/Galveston and is expected by the National Hurricane Center to be Category 2 (or perhaps a 3) at a late Friday/early Saturday am landfall, which remains in striking distance of over 5 million bpd of US petroleum refining capacity. (A little perspective: 5 MMBBL is about 30% of US capacity (about 15 MMBBL), and a bit less than 6% of global capacity (~85 MMBBL)).

The concern now is the where of landfall. If the storm continues further west before turning (see Chuck's update below), then Texas City/Baytown will be in a very bad place, and that's >1MMBBL all by itself. The next two maps represent the current NHC track (the further "left" the storm goes the worse it is for TX City and Baytown, note red storm surge in this track, Baytown is at the back of the bay) and the GFDL track below...as of this update the eye was wobbling to the left of the NHC track, which isn't a good thing for Texas City.

(all the maps and models moved under the fold to conserve bandwidth...scroll down)

(Welcome: we are now on a later and more updated thread, which can be found here: http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4525 NB: you may want to just go the front page (it will be post #1 or #2) to get to the most recent thread: http://theoildrum.com ...)

Hurricane Ike's current track predicts landfall between Corpus Christi and Galveston, but has been moving northwards. Within the current NHC storm path lies about 5 million bpd of US petroleum refining capacity. (Perspective: 5 MMBBL is about 30% of US capacity (about 15 MMBBL), and a bit less than 6% of global capacity (~85 MMBBL). Also, the MMS reported Wednesday that staff has been evacuated from 452 production platforms (63.0%) and 81 rigs (66.9%) – (95.9% of the oil production and 73.1% of the natural gas production has been shut-in as a precautionary measure for Hurricane Ike.)

Hurricane Gustav made landfall in LA just south and east of NOLA as a Category 2 hurricane.

Models done after landfall and their damage forecasts are included below.

The Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, or LOOP (see JoulesBurn's story on the LOOP here), and Port Fourchon, which has historically been a land base for offshore oil support services in the Gulf, was in the path of Gustav and is expected to be damaged. As you will see below, a good bit of oil and natural gas is also expected to be taken offline: some for weeks, some for much longer, according to Methaz' models.

Matthew Simmons, of Simmons International says this about the importance of the LOOP:

LOOP is the only facility in the Gulf to unload VLCC tankers which carry over 2 million barrels of crude. They can in theory be "litered" by unloading onto smaller tankers that can make it into the Gulf Coast ports but this is very lengthy timewise and the spare capacity of these smaller tankers is slim. We get about 1.2 million b/d of crude imports through Loop. (+/- 10%)

Our next update will likely be in the morning. Keep scrolling, there's a LOT of maps, data, and information in these posts. We appreciate your help accumulating resources, stories, and newstips in the comment thread below!

Updates today from Chuck Watson at KAC/UCF:

Here's the 9/1 update:

Well, I think someone (who out of modesty shall remain nameless) forecast several days ago, Gustav would hit unfavorable conditions in the northern Gulf and never make it back to mega-storm strength. That seems to be the case. Center landfall with peak winds of 100kts or maybe slightly less looks to be at Grand Isle, at 8am ET - as of 730et the "eyewall" appears to be touching land.

I'm mostly sticking with the synthesis from last night (based on multiple models) as to impacts, and we're now in a "wait and see what the inspections bring" mode. The big question is what if any major damage the LOOP suffered and (perhaps more vulnerable than the LOOP itself) the connection pipelines to shore. Baseline estimate is 10-14 days for the port itself. Radar shot (7:30am ET) with tracks and LOOP labeled attached.

Production: Unless something broke that shouldn't have, we expect production to be back up to 60-70% within 30 days, and back to 95% by the end of the year. We expect a long-term hit of 3% or so since this swath went through some areas that Ivan, Katrina, and Rita missed and some older, less productive wells will not be restored.

Refineries and distribution: Mainly short term disruption due to precautionary shutdowns, no long term unless we get unlucky with pipelines.

All in all, my thinking is that this could have been a lot worse. Storm was disorganized crossing the OCS, so waves and storm surge will be lower than they should be for a storm of this size and intensity.

Here is Chuck's landfall composite for Gulf (GOM) oil and NG production, which covers the GoM loss for the month of September in to the context of overall oil production, imports, and refining. Note for those crunching the numbers that since GoM is about 25% of US production, 40% of the GOM's contribution of 25% is 10% of the total US production.

COMP ATCF Forecast Time: 2008090112
14 day:    8.21 MMBBL ( 52.36% normal), gas   63.50 BCF ( 65.91% normal)
30 day:   19.98 MMBBL ( 59.46% normal), gas  145.98 BCF ( 70.70% normal)
60 day:   43.01 MMBBL ( 64.00% normal), gas  304.43 BCF ( 73.73% normal)
90 day:   95.23 MMBBL ( 94.47% normal), gas  586.06 BCF ( 94.62% normal)
6 mon :  195.13 MMBBL ( 96.79% normal), gas 1205.43 BCF ( 97.31% normal)
1 year:  400.48 MMBBL ( 97.96% normal), gas 2478.60 BCF ( 98.67% normal)

Interpretation: the models say that 40% of GOM oil will be offline for 30 days and ~30% of GOM NG for will be offline for 30 days--followed by marginal increases in GOM supply (both imports and production) through the next months. (E.g., the 60 day number for oil is 36% shut-in, but between 60-90 days, the number goes down to 5% of GOM oil shut-in.)

UPDATE: 10:00 EDT 9/1 - Graphic below is damage models based on LBAR hurricane forecast track, key is below. Numerical damage estimates are below the fold for oil and natural gas shut-in and damage.

Path/damage estimates using LBAR 10:00 EDT forecast-click twice to enlarge

For all graphics: Rigs/Platforms: Blue: evacuated only; Yellow will require inspection before restart; Red: damage requiring repair; Refineries: Black: operational impact (partial shutdown) Green: Operational impact (full shutdown) Red: Damage likely; Ports: standard hurricane flags for wind

We are not hurricane experts at theoildrum.com. Neither are we experts on damage forecasts to oil and gas infrastructure from weather events (though thankfully we do have an expert that helps us). What we try to do, and have been doing for over 3 years, is articulate the fragility and urgency of our nation's, and our world's, energy situation. As Hurricane Gustav moves nearer, and professional meteorologists and energy analysts gauge the impact it may have on our energy infrastructure, feel free to browse our archives of hundreds of empirically based analyses and perspectives on the myriad energy issues that form the backdrop not only for this hurricane, but for any exogenous event that disrupts the increasingly uneasy balance between energy supply and demand in our modern interconnected world.

There are many resources under the fold (by clicking "there's more" in this post), including details of the latest oil/infra damage estimates from Chuck Watson at KAC/UCF as well as lot of other resources including rig maps, models, google earth maps, and a lot more in the comments.