Update 10:30a EDT 22 JUN, From Chuck Watson at KAC/UCF:

This was a great event for us from a research standpoint, especially for improving our platform evacuation models. One of the hardest things to model is human behavior. We have the guidelines that are used to trigger evacuations programmed into our oil/gas model, but how those guidelines are implemented varies from storm to storm based on judgment, so we make modifications based on how folks have acted in the past. Most forecasts were showing 15-20% shut in for two days, but it looks like we got less than 5%. Given the size and intensity forecast of the storm, fewer platforms/rigs were evacuated than the models would have predicted, so we will tweak that part of the oil/gas model once we get the final evacuation/shut-in numbers.

We take track data from the forecast models, as well as the official track, as the inputs for our oil/gas model. Most of the hurricane forecast models over-estimated Dolly's intensity and strengthening, and were north of the actual track so far. This also contributed to the overestimate of evacuation based shut in production. It is important to realize that a small wobble has a bit impact out there. Only one model (GFDL) showed actual damage to the GOM infrastructure, and that was only for a single forecast (yesterday), so that wasn't too bad.

Chuck has put together a dynamically updating page that will reflect the latest damage models/forecasts at this link: KAC/UCF models. Chuck's forecasts were a very important part of our Katrina and other coverage a few years back, and we thank him for his help and information.

Otherwise, let's put this one to bed and hope that as few people are affected by this storm as possible.