Stories tagged with hurricane katrina

Did Katrina Hide the Real Peak in World Oil Production? and Other Oil Supply Insights

In this post, I collaborate with Matt Mushalik from Sydney, Australia. Matt is a civil engineer, town and regional planner, peak oil advisor, and member of ASPO Australia. Most of the ideas in the post are Matt's. I have added a little to the analysis, particularly in the area of the Katrina impact.

In this post, we use a graphical approach for analyzing oil production since 2001. This analysis shows that more and more countries are showing declining oil production, and that this decline in production is not being offset by increases in production elsewhere. If this pattern continues, this analysis suggests that we may already be past the peak in world oil production.

We also look at the question of whether the impact of Hurricane Katrina may have hidden the real peak in world oil production. We find that if an adjustment is made for hurricane impacts, the peak month of production seems to be December 2005 on a crude and condensate basis, and September 2005 on an all liquids basis. The higher adjusted peaks, and greater declines since the adjusted peaks, further suggest that we may be post-peak.

Remember Where the Offshore Rigs Are and What They Can Take?



This is the GSF High Island III, damaged last year.

Under the fold is a discussion we had last year with our friends at KAC/UCF (a site we'll probably be seeing a lot of if trends continue--and here is a link to their "Hurricane Impacts on Gulf of Mexico Oil Production" (.pdf warning)). The discussion was regarding the structural standards to which offshore rigs are built and their wind tolerances...interesting stuff.

New Urbanism and the rebuilding of Mississippi

In this week's New York Times magazine, there's an interesting article on plans for rebuilding the Mississippi coast towns that were devastated by Katrina. According to the article, unlike New Orleans, Mississippi has been more successful in jump-starting the plans to rebuild, partly because of better planning and political leadership, and partly because private companies have infused the initiative with a little cash.

When it came time to draw up a plan for Biloxi and surrounding towns, the people in charge decided to call on the Congress for New Urbanism. What happened then was a real study in how American values can clash.

HC and MMS: Remaining Shut-in Production NOT Likely to Be Rebuilt...

Thanks to Leanan on a good catch of this Houston Chronicle article, which states:
Much of the oil and natural gas production still shut-in after last year's hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico will stay offline because it would not be economical for companies to rebuild the production platforms, Energy Secretary Sam Bodman told Congress today.
Which reminded me, we hadn't linked to the MMS shut-in statistics in a while.  They are discussed in the Chronicle article, but here's a link to the MMS stats just for old time's sake.

Transit-Oriented Redevelopment in New Orleans?

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin's Bring New Orleans Back Commission has released a master plan for the rebuilding of the city (Powerpoint, PDF courtesy of NPR). Most of the news coverage of the plan focuses on the controversial process that determines which neighborhoods will be rebuilt. But the plan also embraces transit-oriented development and other new urbanist concepts.

I've excerpted some of the key slides and figures below the fold. Do their ideas have merit? Will they ever get implemented?

Ending on an Optimistic Note in New Orleans

We end this little three-part photo-essay on where New Orleans is up to with the brightest spot: the French Quarter. I took these shots on New Year's Day.

Shoppers in the French Quarter flea market. Click picture to enlarge.

Pictures from the Lower 9th Ward

Neighborhood in the lower 9th ward. This used to be a street of houses. Click picture to enlarge. Credit: Zoe Hare

A Postcard from New Orleans

Foreign deals and domestic refineries

Well there are a number of interesting snippets of news that are worth noting, and which might, collectively provide more parts to fit into the puzzle. Consider today's news that Russia is investing in Nigerian oil.
State oil firm Zarubezhneft has recently struck Russia's first oil deal with OPEC-member Nigeria to explore two offshore blocks in the Gulf of Guinea, the Energy Ministry said on Tuesday.

Russian oil majors are expanding abroad from Iran and Saudi Arabia to Venezuela and Colombia as record revenues from high oil prices allow them to invest in reserves outside Russia

The Russian company also is in partnership in Vietnam, where it produces about 230,000 bd.  I suspect that it is more credible than yesterday's Guardian story of a Chinese company bidding for Exxon Mobil. On the other hand, with the Chinese President in Vietnam, they also have signed an agreement for joint exploration.
In a related development, China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC), the country's biggest offshore oil and gas producer, on Monday signed a framework agreement with a Vietnamese oil firm to jointly explore oil and gas in the Beibu Bay.
 Incidentally as Russia plans to double rail shipments of oil to China next year, we need to remember that not all transport is by pipeline or tanker.

In looking to see how restoration was progressing around New Orleans (where I had hoped to meet the inside contact, that Prof G just mentioned, but she could not get to Venice that day) it is important to note that not all the wells that were damaged were in relatively deep water.  As Platts noted

From One of Our Insiders: Some Thoughts and Data about Prices and Exploration

I know the argument is consistently made that higher prices ALWAYS bring on increased exploration.  It is also argued that higher prices make things more economical.