The Oil Drum

In this post, I collaborate with Matt Mushalik from Sydney, Australia. Matt is a civil engineer, town and regional planner, peak oil advisor, and member of ASPO Australia. Most of the ideas in the post are Matt's. I have added a little to the analysis, particularly in the area of the Katrina impact.

In this post, we use a graphical approach for analyzing oil production since 2001. This analysis shows that more and more countries are showing declining oil production, and that this decline in production is not being offset by increases in production elsewhere. If this pattern continues, this analysis suggests that we may already be past the peak in world oil production.

We also look at the question of whether the impact of Hurricane Katrina may have hidden the real peak in world oil production. We find that if an adjustment is made for hurricane impacts, the peak month of production seems to be December 2005 on a crude and condensate basis, and September 2005 on an all liquids basis. The higher adjusted peaks, and greater declines since the adjusted peaks, further suggest that we may be post-peak.

Under the fold is a discussion we had last year with our friends at KAC/UCF (a site we'll probably be seeing a lot of if trends continue--and here is a link to their "Hurricane Impacts on Gulf of Mexico Oil Production" (.pdf warning)). The discussion was regarding the structural standards to which offshore rigs are built and their wind tolerances...interesting stuff.

When it came time to draw up a plan for Biloxi and surrounding towns, the people in charge decided to call on the Congress for New Urbanism. What happened then was a real study in how American values can clash.

Much of the oil and natural gas production still shut-in after last year's hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico will stay offline because it would not be economical for companies to rebuild the production platforms, Energy Secretary Sam Bodman told Congress today.

I've excerpted some of the key slides and figures below the fold. Do their ideas have merit? Will they ever get implemented?

State oil firm Zarubezhneft has recently struck Russia's first oil deal with OPEC-member Nigeria to explore two offshore blocks in the Gulf of Guinea, the Energy Ministry said on Tuesday.

Russian oil majors are expanding abroad from Iran and Saudi Arabia to Venezuela and Colombia as record revenues from high oil prices allow them to invest in reserves outside Russia

In a related development, China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC), the country's biggest offshore oil and gas producer, on Monday signed a framework agreement with a Vietnamese oil firm to jointly explore oil and gas in the Beibu Bay.

In looking to see how restoration was progressing around New Orleans (where I had hoped to meet the inside contact, that Prof G just mentioned, but she could not get to Venice that day) it is important to note that not all the wells that were damaged were in relatively deep water.  As Platts noted