The Oil Drum

By now most people know that by this weekend there will likely be a hurricane spinning its way somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. There are possibly three more storms behind it. Below is an aggregate resource thread including updates by Chuck Watson/KAC/UCF--click through for models.

(Please deposit new relevant links, graphs, and comments in this new thread...we have updated the resources part of this post with new maps and some more old maps and articles from Katrina on the LOOP and Port Fourchon--important parts of the infrastructure, as we learned about three years ago, as well as with some new materials from Simmons & Co (Thanks Matt!))

Click to go to WUnderground

Tropical storm Edouard continues westward towards Texas. While likley not even a 'cane, there is still uncertainty regarding impact. Though it never reached hurricane level in the Gulf, there is potential for refinery flooding but this is currently being offset by futures contract flooding...;-) Below the fold is the latest estimates on the storms potential impact on shut-in production and refineries.

UPDATE: NEW UPDATED POST ON TOP OF FRONT PAGE AS OF 1:20am EDT, 8/21

This post is a collection of different Google Earth based mashups of various weather data, oil infrastructure overlays and excellent impact maps established by Chuck Watson (see also PG's post for a list of resources on Mexico oil infrastructure). The list of Google Earth files (kml/kmz files) used in this post can be find on my blog. There is now a good likelihood that Dean will impact significantly the Cantarell and the KMZ oil complex which constitute the backbone of the Mexican production.

I will try to update this post during the day as soon as new forecasts are available.

[Update by Dave Cohen on 08/24/06 at 12:06 PM EDT] You can read the latest on the hurricanes and climate debate at realclimate.org—Fact, Fiction, and Friction in the Hurricane Debate. The story is by two distinguished climate scientists, Gavin Schmidt and Michael Mann.

What a difference a year makes. Last year at this time, Katrina was bearing down on the Gulf of Mexico and Rita was still in the future. The Oil Drum's traffic was way up as our editors and commentors provided up to the minute coverage.

Today, the National Hurricane Center is tracking Debbie, the 4th named storm of 2006. When Katrina hit, it was "the eleventh named storm, fifth hurricane, third major hurricane, and second Category 5 hurricane of the 2005 Atlantic season."

Where are the hurricanes?

Just to bring Stuart's information back to the top. The National Hurricane Center has changed the forecast for Alberto.

...AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS ALBERTO LOCATED FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST AND STRONGER...

AT 10 AM CDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA FROM LONGBOAT KEY TO THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO ENGLEWOOD...AND WEST OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO INDIAN PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

The path remains fairly similar to that shown by Stuart, but for 5-days it looks like this:

Now that the hurricane season had started, I wanted to know if there's much chance of one in June. Not really, it turns out:

Average number of storm tracks (any category) on a given day in each month over the period 1851-2005. Source: NOAA NHC.

Update [2006-6-10 13:36:2 by Stuart Staniford]: Well, what do you know - here's Tropical Depression One:

Update [2006-6-11 18:12:55 by Stuart Staniford]: Now Tropical Storm Alberto.

Projected three day track of tropical depression ONE. Source: NOAA NHC.

Update [2006-6-12 12:48:38 by Stuart Staniford]: "ALBERTO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS."

The EIA has come out with quite a thoughtful piece on likely hurricane damage which includes an attempted prediction of the impact that this coming storm season might have on refinery output in the Gulf. They have plotted previous years effects, to show how unusual last year was. Note that PADD 3 is the area that includes the Gulf Coast.

At present they are accepting the NOAA forecast that this year will be above normal, but not as bad as last year, however, as they note:

Based on NOAA's May 2006 projections for the 2006 hurricane season and the historical relationship between tropical storm activity and production disruptions between 1960 and 2005, total reductions in crude oil and natural gas production from the Gulf of Mexico OCS due to tropical storm activity in 2006 are expected to range from 0 to 35 million barrels and 0 to 206 billion cubic feet, respectively. NOAA emphasizes that its May hurricane outlook is based on climatological conditions that are still evolving. An updated hurricane outlook will be issued in August, when conditions favorable for hurricanes are more predictable. There is a possibility that NOAA could substantially revise its projections for seasonal hurricane activity, as in 2005, when the May outlook, projecting hurricane activity for 2005 somewhat lower than what is currently projected for 2006, was revised upward substantially in August, prior to Hurricane Katrina. Actual storm activity in 2005 then ended up close to the upper bound of the revised range. If a similar situation occurs in 2006, EIA estimates of shut-in crude oil and natural gas production due to tropical storm activity would be significantly higher.

Having just dropped back home to change suitcase contents again, after, this time, watching joints being made and unmade (of the tubular variety) for a couple of days, I have been relying on hotel newspapers for news (some hotel internets don't work) and so was reminded that this is National Hurricane Preparedness Week and that the forecast is for up to 16 named storms and 10 hurricanes, down from the 28 named storms and 15 hurricanes last year. However we can still expect some 6 major hurricanes, down from 7 last year, which is a critical number and really not that much different from last year. The major question of where will, unfortunately, not be known for a while, and remember that hurricanes in the Southern GOMEX also can cause severe casualties, and can, less directly, but nevertheless significantly, impact our oil availability.

Sea Surface Temperatures, and anomaly from climatic averages. Source: NOAA.

Consider that in their December 2004 forecast, the NHC reported a 69% chance of a major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane hitting the US, but said of 2005:

We do not, however, expect anything close to the U.S. landfalling hurricane activity of 2004.

Well, they got that wrong...

This begs the question of how likely were the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons given the NHC forecasts? I'm going to argue that they were quite unlikely, suggesting the NHC, at least in recent years, is systematically underestimating the seriousness of the problem.