The Oil Drum

This past week Exxon Mobil announced the closure of their operating coal mine in Illinois, and their departure from the coal business. For those who worry most about greenhouse gas emissions this might seem to be a step forward, and, while I will likely write about that issue some other time, I would rather express a different concern today. Electric power is a fundamental part of our everyday life. Outside of the impact of the occasional storm, we expect that when we flip a light switch, the light will go on. Yet few give much thought to the power station that is generating that power. In recent years the new power stations that have been built have largely got their power from natural gas. But if the world oil is within that zone that we will, in future years, refer to as the peak plateau, the state of US Natural Gas is in a much more perilous position.

The National Research Council, as Leanan reported earlier, has just issued a report Coal: Research and Development to Support National Energy Policy dealing with both current reserves and needed research. While I haven’t had a chance to read it in detail yet, there was one paragraph I thought worth mentioning before I write a longer review, and it is this one.

Despite significant uncertainties in existing reserve estimates, it is clear that there is sufficient coal at current levels of production to meet anticipated needs through 2030. Looking further into the future, there is probably sufficient coal to meet the nation’s needs for more than 100 years at current rates of consumption. However it is not possible to confirm the often-quoted assertion that there is a sufficient supply of coal for the next 250 years.

I had written in the non-too-distant past about why coal reserves can be smaller than those anticipated. There is, however, a current part of the in-situ deposits that are not considered, and to illustrate what I mean, I thought I would use the example of the Prairie State Energy Campus that is being developed in Southern Illinois. This is a 1,600 megawatt power plant that will serve customers in Illinois, Missouri, Indiana and Kentucky. It will be served by a dedicated adjacent underground coal mine. It is one aspect of this mine that I thought I would address here.

Along with most who have read it, I was much impressed with the Chicago Tribune special segment on oil this weekend, and, if you have the time, would highly recommend that you both read the articles and watch the video (which takes about an hour). It does not have the fictionalized aspects that we have seen in other coverage from the BBC through Fox, and CNN about the problem, but rather, in a series of facts, lays out the situation. For those who don't have the opportunity, I thought I would give a summary, with some comments.