Stories tagged with "jet fuel"

Jatropha: Possible Jet Fuel but Difficult to Scale Up


If you had not gathered this before, then you should know that I have been favorably impressed with the potential of algae as a future source of biofuels. However I recognize that there is a considerable amount of research and business development and growth that will have to occur before such fuel makes a significant impact in the market place.

Of the other alternative biofuel sources, I was also considerate of jatropha, which seemed to have some significant potential. The fuel comes from the nuts which the shrub produces, and since it can be grown on quite poor land, and in some countries is already in use a fencing plant I anticipated that its potential would be increasingly recognized. Well, it has not quite turned out the way that I thought it would, at least not yet.

How Much Will Gustav and Ike Affect Gas Supplies? An Update.

Shortly after Hurricane Ike hit, I wrote an article called Implications of a Ten-Day Refinery Outage. It is a few days later, and we know a little more. The purpose of this article is to give an update on the situation.

Based on what I am seeing now, we are likely to see significant gasoline outages in the next few weeks. These may not be as long-lasting as those with Katrina, but they may temporarily be more severe, at least in some parts of the country. Diesel may or may not be a problem. We are an exporter of diesel, so can theoretically reduce exports if need be. Also distillate (used for diesel) supplies are currently at a more adequate level than are gasoline supplies. Jet fuel stocks seem to be at a relatively adequate level, so shortages may not be a problem.


Figure 1. EIA Weekly Gasoline Stocks (includes blending stocks)

As one can see from Figure 1, EIA weekly gasoline stocks are diving, on a path to 180 million barrels of gasoline or less, in the next week. Weekly gasoline supplies when Katrina hit in 2005 declined, but not nearly to the extent we are seeing today.

Implications of a Ten Day Refinery Outage

Where is our gasoline and diesel supply headed? Even before Ike hit, quite a few areas of the US were starting to see gasoline shortages. The impact of Ike can only make shortages worse. Most likely, it will take refineries at least a week or two to get production back to normal levels after a storm of this type, considering the impacts of electrical outages and flooding. In this article, I will examine some of the issues that seem to be involved. Based on my analysis, fuel supply shortages are likely to last well into October, and are likely to get considerably worse before they get better.

Insight 1. Even before Hurricane Ike hit, inventories were very low.


FIgure 1. EIA Graph of Gasoline Inventories

According to EIA data, gasoline inventories the week that Hurricane Gustav hit were the lowest that they had been since 2000, amounting to 187.9 million barrels, or about 21 days supply. Quite a bit of this inventory is needed just to keep the pipelines filled. EIA does not publish information as to how far inventories need to drop before we start seeing outages, but it is clear that we have now reached the point where shortages are developing.

A Growing Military Concern...

One of the most critical aspects of military operations is the reliance on fuel. I was struck by that as I am currently half-way through the video series based on Daniel Yergin's "The Prize" and have just watched the segment on the Second World War. Access to oil was critical to success. Assuring that access has, as a result, been a critical part of military preparedness. It is therefore interesting to see, courtesy of Leanan and the Energy Bulletin (pdf available at that site), that the one-time general in charge of the U.S. Army Material Command, is now, as a scholar at West Point, concerned enough about oil supply to write a paper. The paper begins
Without ready alternatives to replace ever more costly and scarce oil, we are entering an age of uncertainty and insecurity unlike any other that could include economic stagnation or even reversal. Although the military will always have access to the fuel required for national security missions, the costs will rise substantially in the near future and require the reallocation of resources from other critical mission elements and programs.