The Oil Drum

Executive Summary

1. World total liquids production (Fig 1) remains on a peak plateau since 2006 and is forecast to fall off this peak plateau in 2009. Increasing numbers of oil experts are forecasting impending peak production plateaus. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the current peak production of 87.2 mbd occurred on January 2008. As long as demand continues increasing then prices will continue increasing.
   

2. Forecast world crude oil and lease condensate (C&C) production retains its 2005 peak (Fig 2). The forecast to 2100 shows declining C&C production, using a bottom up forecast to 2012 (Fig 3). The forecast to 2012 shows a slight decline to 2009, followed by a 3%/yr decline rate to 2012.
   

3. World oil discovery rates peaked in 1965 (Fig 4) and production has exceeded discovery for every year since the mid 1980s. Discoverable reserves in giant fields also peaked during the mid 1960s (Fig 5). The time lag between world peak discovery in 1965 and world peak production in 2005 of 40 years is similar to the time lag of 42 years for the USA Lower 48 (Fig 6).
   

4. World C&C year on year production changes to October 2007 and November 2007 (Figs 7 and 8) show significant declines for Mexico, North Sea and Saudi Arabia and significant increases for Russia, Azerbaijan and Angola. As Russia is likely to be on a production plateau and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE have probably passed peak production, the world C&C production will continue to decline slowly.
   

5. Saudi Arabia retains its 2005 C&C peak (Fig 10), which is the same as the peak year for world C&C (Fig 2). Saudi Arabia C&C production has dropped to 9.0 mbd which is 0.6 mbd less than its peak in 2005. It is now almost a certainty that Saudi Arabia passed peak C&C production of 9.6 mbd in 2005 (Figs 9 and 10).
   

6. Kuwait retains its 2006 minor C&C peak (Fig 12). Kuwait C&C production has now dropped to 2.5 mbd which is less than its peak in 2006. There is a strong likelihood that Kuwait has passed its minor 2006 peak (Figs 11 and 12). Kuwait’s major peak was 3.3 mbd in 1972.
   

7. UAE retains its 2006 C&C peak (Fig 14). UAE C&C production has now dropped to 2.6 mbd, adjusted for maintenance, which is just less than its peak in 2006. There is a reasonable likelihood that UAE passed its 2006 peak (Figs 13 and 14).
   

8. World natural gas plant liquids is forecast to increase due mainly to new OPEC projects (Fig 15). World ethanol and XTL production is forecast to almost double by 2012 (Fig 16). World processing gains are forecast to decline slowly to 2012 (Fig 17).

PLEASE NOTE: click on the link below for the most recent oil forecast update
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3623 which includes forecasts for Kuwait and the UAE.

Executive Summary

1. World total liquids production (Fig 1) remains on a peak plateau since 2006 and is forecast to fall off this peak plateau in the middle of 2009. According to the IEA, the current peak production of 86.13 mbd occurred on July 2006 and only one year later, June 2007 total liquids production fell to an unexpectedly low 84.50 mbd. A good increase up to 85.10 mbd occurred for September 2007. As long as demand continues increasing then prices will also continue increasing.
   

2. Forecast world crude oil and lease condensate (C&C) production retains its 2005 peak (Fig 2). The forecast to 2100 shows declining C&C production, using a bottom up forecast to 2012 (Fig 3). The forecast to 2012 shows a 1%/yr decline rate to 2009, followed by a 4%/yr decline rate to 2012.
   

3. World oil discovery rates peaked in 1965 (Fig 4) and production has exceeded discovery for every year since the mid 1980s. Discoverable reserves in giant fields also peaked during the mid 1960s (Fig 5). The time lag between world peak discovery in 1965 and world peak production in 2005 of 40 years is similar to the time lag of 42 years for the USA Lower 48 (Fig 6).
   

4. World C&C year on year production changes to June 2007 and July 2007 (Figs 7,8) show significant declines for Mexico, North Sea and Saudi Arabia and significant increases for Russia, Azerbaijan and Angola. As Russia is likely to be on a production plateau and Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE have probably passed peak production, the world C&C production will continue to decline slowly.
   

5. Saudi Arabia retains its 2005 C&C peak (Fig 10), which is the same as the peak year for world C&C (Fig 2). Saudi Arabia C&C production has dropped to 8.6 mbd which is 1 mbd less than its peak in 2005. It is now almost a certainty that Saudi Arabia passed peak C&C production of 9.6 mbd in 2005 (Figs 9,10).
   

6. Kuwait retains its 2006 minor C&C peak (Fig 12). Kuwait C&C production has now dropped to 2.5 mbd which is less than its peak in 2006. There is a strong likelihood that Kuwait has passed its minor 2006 peak (Figs 11,12). Kuwait’s major peak was 3.3 mbd in 1972.
   

7. UAE retains its 2006 C&C peak (Fig 14). UAE C&C production has now dropped to 2.6 mbd which is just less than its peak in 2006. Once again, there is a strong likelihood that UAE passed its 2006 peak (Figs 13,14).
   

8. World natural gas plant liquids is forecast to increase due to new OPEC projects (Fig 15). World ethanol and XTL production is forecast to double by 2012 (Fig 16). World processing gains are forecast to decline slowly to 2012 (Fig 17).

As we start off 2007, it seemed helpful to list the oil producing countries that Oil Drum readers might keep an eye on, both in this and future years. Often, the global production curve is presented in an undifferentiated way or is divided between OPEC and non-OPEC countries (as with the EIA). Other standard data sources such as the IEA, BP, Oil & Gas Journal, etc. usually break out production by region.

Taking a different approach, I decided to single out those countries that have made significant production increases in recent years — defined as any producer nation that has contributed an additional 0.5% to the current global liquids supply from fossil fuels (crude oil, condensates + natural gas liquids) since the year 2000. The result is shown in Figure 1.

Countries contributing at least a 0.5% increase since 2000 in world production of liquids fromfossil fuels (grey) versus the rest of world (blue). Does not include CTL or GTL. Data from BP — Figure 1

Will these difference makers deliver us from the turbulence & chaos of economic contraction and provide peak oil salvation?

At the Oil Depletion conference (hosted by the Energy Institute) held in London on 7th November, Dr Kenneth Chew, a Vice President of IHS Energy reported proved and probable reserves (2P) for Kuwait of around 52 billion barrels (read from chart). This is approximately 51% of the proved reserves reported in the BP statistical review that stand at 101.5 billion barrels. This tends to support recent reports of Kuwaiti reserves being substantially overstated.

Ken Chew also presented data indicating global remaining discovered proved plus probable (2P) liquid resources of some 1,250 billion barrels. This implies global proved liquid reserves (1P) of around 950 billion barrels (based on an assumption that 1P is approximately 75% of 2P). This is substantially lower than estimates provided by BP, Oil & Gas Journal and World Oil.

[editor's note, by Prof. Goose] This is a guest post by lads.

This article is a first simplistic (but comprehensive) assessment of World Oil Exports, here defined has the total amount of liquid hydrocarbons that are surpluses in producing countries. This assessment is made by projecting in to the future fixed change rates that reflect current trends in liquids production and consumption in countries where presently the difference between the two is positive. The outcome of this assessment is worrisome.

The corrupted phrase from the ever popular Swedish Chef from the Muppets of long ago (geesh, I sure am old) aside, the proposed Iranian Oil Bourse is a hot topic in the blogosphere.  

First, we have our colleague James Hamilton over at Econbrowser basically saying "No worries, money is all fluid," versus Kassimir Petrov who has serious concerns about the US economy if the Iranian bourse becomes reality.  My thoughts under the fold...

Just to give you a little puzzle for the vacation, I am adding the table that shows the number of new wells, the number of producing wells and the crude oil production for the OPEC countries, below the fold. This should be read in conjuncture with the table on oil produced per well, that is posted below.

I do this in part, so that you can have those numbers when reading the predictions being made for Saudi Aramco production, and how they are going to get it (thanks to Energy Bulletin for the pointer).

When you take this with the average amount of oil each well adds, then you can see how much, without that addition, the production from each country would have been.  Which should give some idea of the rates at which production would otherwise be declining.  That was the basic theory, but since you have to allow for when wells came on stream, and such factors, it did not prove the easy task I thought it might be.  But if you are looking for something to do . . . .

Alternatively, I could have called this story "Back to Basics, What I Learned at ASPO USA, Part I".

To convince us all that peak oil is not just on the horizon, the IEA speaks of huge proven or potential reserve numbers or, even worse, undiscovered resources that will soon become producible reserves. In his ASPO USA talk, Matt Simmons (ppt) called this reserve appreciation and sarcastically referred to these as "conceptual reserves". As Chris Skrebowski (ppt) pointed out (Slide 8), what is relevant to peak oil is not reserves but diminishing incremental flows. The history of Kuwaiti reserve numbers and the recent revelation that the Greater Burgan field, the world's second largest in terms of reserves, is now "exhausted", make these distinctions clear.

The news that Matt Simmons announced to the World Oil Conference, that the Burgan field is apparently in trouble, is  beginning to reach a wider audience. (Thanks Greyzone).

The recent IEA outlook on the Middle East has this to say of relevance

Kuwait has four major oil producing areas, north Kuwait, west Kuwait, south-east Kuwait and the Neutral Zone.   . . . North Kuwait consists of two major fields, Raudhatain and Sabriyah, and currently produces around 600 kbd. West Kuwait contains several minor fields that make up the two major fields, Minagish and Umm Gudair, and produces around 400 kbd.  South-east Kuwait contains the multi-reservoir Greater Burgan field that is producing around 1.4 mbd Kuwaits's share of production from the Neutral Zone is currently around 300 kbd.