Many people believe that the Logistic equation adequately models the Hubbert peak. This comes about for a few reasons:

1. We can (often/occasionally) get an adequate heuristic fit to the shape of the production data by matching it to a logistic sigmoid curve.
2. The logistic-growth formula dU/dt = U(U₀-U) carries some sort of physical significance.
3. The logistic has hung around for a long time, in modern terms, therefore it must have some practical value.

An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts. This post is dedicated to the memory of Dr. Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari who passed away last October.

World oil production (EIA Monthly) for crude oil + NGL. The median forecast is calculated from 13 models that are predicting a peak before 2020 (Bakhtiari, Smith, Staniford, Loglets, Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45], Robelius Low/High, HSM). 95% of the predictions  sees a production peak between 2008 and 2010 at 77.5 - 85.0 mbpd (The 95% confidence interval is computed using a bootstrap technique). Click to Enlarge. 

An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts.

World oil production (EIA Monthly) for crude oil + NGL. The median forecast is calculated from 12 models that are predicting a peak before 2020 (Bakhiarti, Smith, Staniford, Loglets, Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45], Robelius Low/High, HSM). 95% of the predictions  sees a production peak between 2009 and 2011 at 78.23 - 87.12 mbpd (The 95% confidence interval is computed using a bootstrap technique). Click to Enlarge. 

Executive Summary:

1. Monthly production records are unchanged except for NGPL: 
1. All Liquids: the peak is still July 2006 at 85.43 mbpd, the year to date average production in 2007 (2 months) is  84.26 mbpd, up 0.2 mbpd from 2006.
2. Crude Oil + NGL: the peak date remains May 2005 at 82.08 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2007 (2 months) is  81.24 mbpd, down 0.06 mbpd from 2006.
3. Crude Oil + Condensate: the peak date remains May 2005 at 74.15 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2007 (2 months) is 73.09 mbpd, down 0.25 mbpd from 2006.
4. NGPL: the peak date is now February 2007 at 8.24 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2007 (2 months) is  8.15 mbpd, up 0.19 mbpd from 2006.
2. Decline in crude oil + condensate continues: February 2007 estimate for crude oil + condensate is 73.35 mbpd compared to 73.47 mbpd one year ago.
3. New forecasts added: Projections from Frederik Robelius and the Hybrid Shock Model.
4. Average forecast: the average forecast for crude oil + NGL based on 12 different projections is showing a kind of production plateau around 83 +/- 4 mbpd with a decline after 2010 +/- 1 year.

An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts.

World oil production (EIA Monthly) for crude oil + NGL. The median forecast is calculated from 9 models that are predicting a peak before 2020 (Bakhiarti, Smith, Staniford, Loglets,  Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45]). Click to Enlarge.

Executive Summary:

1. Monthly production records are unchanged: 
1. All Liquids: the peak is still July 2006 at 85.47 mbpd, the year to date average production in 2006 (11 months) is  84.59 mbpd, up 0.01 mbpd from 2005.
2. Crude Oil + NGL: the peak date remains May 2005 at 82.08 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2006 (11 months) is  81.40 mbpd, down 0.03 mbpd from 2005 (11 months).
3. Crude Oil + Condensate: the peak date remains May 2005 at 74.15 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2006 (11 months) is 73.48 mbpd, down 0.09 mbpd from 2005 (11 months).
4. NGPL: the peak date remains February 2005 at 8.05 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2006 (11 months) is  7.92 mbpd, up 0.06 mbpd from 2005 (11 months).
2. No major revisions on the previous monthly estimates in this month release. 
3. Weak growth continues: November 2006 estimate for crude oil + condensate is 73.41 mbpd compared to 74.11 mbpd one year ago.

A French version is also available on TOD:Canada here