The Oil Drum

When I read James Howard Kunstler's (JHK) book The Long Emergency, it had a profound impact on me. I had been aware for many years that "running out of oil" was a serious matter. After all, I took on the challenge of peak oil in my graduate thesis in 1995. But my focus was more on finding a source that could replace oil as it ran out. Reading The Long Emergency was the first time it really hit me that I was missing a lot of key pieces of the picture.

Short video from CNBC with John Hofmeister explaining why peak oil isn't a problem, and where Matt Simmons went wrong. They also get in a dig about the "religion" of climate change at the end.

And here's Matt's response (text not video): http://www.cnbc.com/id/23728987

Matt Simmons was on Fast Money (on CNBC) Friday afternoon. Here's the clip.

moved under the fold to decrease load times...click "there's more."

Aberdeen, often promoted as the oil capital of Europe, has a local newspaper called the Press and Journal that serves the city and Northern Scotland. Once a month, they publish a business supplement called “Energy” that is edited by Jeremy Cresswell.

The impression I have had for a number of years (rightly or wrongly) is that “Energy” has favoured a fairly upbeat and optimistic editorial line on our energy future – though the editor assures me they have tried to carry a balanced perspective. In the November issue published yesterday, three prominent stories caught my eye:

All peaked out and no place else to go but do-o-o-wn

Will the wheels drop off the biofuels wagon?

Simmons spells it out – but when will the ostriches get their heads out of the sand?

Regular readers of The Oil Drum will be familiar with these stories. The point here is that these are published in the mainstream business press. There are excerpts below the fold plus links to the original articles on line. This is good Oil Drum fare, and the article on biofuels, in particular is worth reading.

CNBC had a lot of peak oil coverage Friday (November 2, 2007). Included were interviews with Matt Simmons (author of Twilight In the Desert) and Vijay Vaitheeswaran (author of Zoom!), which is under the fold.

Crude Realities

Here's some peak oil media for the folks who haven't seen them. The first is an oldie, but a goodie by Albert Bartlett. Also under the fold are links to recent media appearances by Matt Simmons and Jim Kunstler.

It has always seemed to me that one of the keys to the puzzle of why people don't understand the problems that peak oil and other sustainability issues present is a lack of understanding of measurement, pure innumeracy and/or a lack of understanding spatial/change functions--namely the meaning and implications of constant growth.

Here's the best lecture that I can find as a primer (linked over at GPM here) by Dr. Albert Bartlett. Dr. Bartlett professes physics at the University of Colorado. He knows what he's talking about--that much I can vouch for.

If you need me to sell it to you so you'll watch it, that's under the fold, as well as links to the Simmons and Kunstler pieces. (Feel free to link to other peak oil media pieces in the comments.)

On June 26, I posted an article titled Peak Oil Overview - June 2006. A number of you made comments. In this post, I take the initial steps toward expanding the June 26 post into a booklet that could be available with links on TOD, as a PDF, and also could be self-published. I say self-published, because I doubt that a regular publisher would want to publish something that is available without charge on the web. Also, I think there would be a long time-delay in getting it published by a regular publisher. The Appendices would provide supplementary material if the booklet is used is a classroom situation, or if a person wants more background.

This post includes a proposed Introduction and Chapter 1: What Is Peak Oil? I would be interested in hearing people's comments and suggestions. A PDF of Chapter 1 is included at the end of this story.

Introduction to Peak Oil

by Gail Tverberg

Introduction

Chapter 1: What Is Peak Oil?
Chapter 2: Is This a False Alarm?
Chapter 3: What's Ahead?
Chapter 4: What Should We Do Now?
Chapter 5: Where Can We Get Reliable Information?

Appendices:

Appendix A: How Oil Is Produced and Traded
Appendix B: Countries Already Reporting Energy Shortages
Appendix C: Rear Admiral Hyman Rickover's 1957 Speech "Energy and Our Future"
Appendix D: Discussion Questions for Classroom Use

Booklet draft begins below the fold

I wrote this article to put together answers to questions someone new to peak oil might have and to directly counter some common misunderstandings. One topic I talk about is CERA estimates. While there is a little overlap with Oil Quiz-Test Your Knowledge, most of it is different. Pass along a link or a PDF (available below) to your friends.

The message that "peak oil" may be a problem is now reaching respected publications like Business Week. But how can a person learn more? Information about peak oil is often fragmented, and the quality of the sources is questionable. The purpose of this article is to document some of what is known about peak oil, so that readers have a better framework for understanding our current situation. Many links are provided, so that readers can dig deeper if they like.

1. What is peak oil?

"Peak oil" is the term used to describe the situation when the amount of oil that can be extracted from the earth in a given year begins to decline, because geological limitations are reached. Extracting oil becomes more and more difficult, so that costs escalate and the amount of oil produced begins to decline. The term peak oil generally relates to worldwide production, but a similar phenomenon exists for individual countries and other smaller areas.

2. Why would oil production begin to decline? Can't we extract oil as fast as we want to, until it finally runs out, many years from now?

Here's three four pieces of media that you can send to folks to explain the basic arguments regarding peak oil. First is Matt Simmons on CNBC a month ago talking about the GAO report (7 mins), then under the fold a link to Jim Kunstler's latest talk (which is great), a piece by ABC Radio of Australia on the GAO report and peak oil, and Boone Pickens on the issue as well.

"The GAO report found no focussed coordinated government plans to prepare for peak oil or other supply disruptions."
"We are on the verge of replacing the term 'global warming' with the term 'peak oil.'"
"The best new oil basin we will ever find is the one called 'conservation.'"