The Oil Drum

While I intend to write a post covering the top energy stories of 2007, Platts is asking for reader input on the top oil industry stories of 2007:

The top 10 oil industry stories of 2007

A lot of the listed stories would make both lists. I list my Top 10 below that I submitted to Platts. The first few were easy, but I had a hard time picking between the last three or four.

So! Going to Cork was not a cheap experience, with at least a day of travel each way, not to mention the energy cost – so was it worth it? And to define whether it was worth it, what did I learn? What follows is purely my set of opinions and recollections, and given the number of TOD folk there – do please chip in with your own comments. And let me begin by stating that I am definitely glad I went, and, even though a fair amount of what we heard reflects posts on different topics that have appeared here over the past year or so, the information was largely more up-to-date, the speakers were highly qualified, and the conversations outside the formal presentations could not have been reproduced in any other way. (And if you want to consider that a hint about the value of going to the Houston ASPO Conference , you’d be right).

Putting together the papers on Supply, there are perhaps two or three significant thoughts that have hardened based on what I have heard. The first is in regard to the actual peak volume of oil and associated liquids that will mark the peak. Numbers at the conference floated up around 100 mbdoe, but I think it is now likely to be closer to 90. The second is in regard to how much of this will be exported. Westexas points on the decreasing amounts that will flow from producing countries were validated by the growth numbers that we heard for the indigenous economies of the producers. This reduction in export volumes will likely advance the arrival of an apparent peak to oil-importing nations to a time in advance of the real peak in production, with an even earlier significant economic impact above that seen to date. My sense for that timing is about two years, with the potential that, given the sensitivity of the issue, volumes might be adjusted prior to that in order to influence the next Presidential election. And in regard to how much of the export volumes the OECD can anticipate – well probably less than they are currently expecting. The way in which China, with foresight, has sought out future supplies and lined up commitments is likely to make the available supply significantly less for the rest of us, and the earlier optimistic projections from the majors that they had enough for us not to worry is being increasingly made irrelevant, as they get displaced from country after country. And, finally, as sort of a combination of these, I worry that the post-peak supplies may decline faster than the long plateau that currently keeps us complacent, and which does not reflect the bell-shaped curve that some of us use when talking about the subject. I am significantly more pessimistic.