Stories tagged with "metals"

Mining the Technosphere: Solutions for Industrial Ecosystems

This is a slide video of the presentation given by Rolf Widmer and David Rochat at the Oil Drum/ASPO Conference at Alcatraz, Italy in June 2009. Rolf and David work at EMPA and SOFIES on more efficient material management for industrial society. Their talk is about the flows, availability, and recycling of minerals in industrial ecosystems, called Mining the Technosphere: a Solution for the Industrial Ecosystem (Presentation PDF no.1 no.2, 1.8 MB each).

Book Review: On Borrowed Time? Assessing the Threat of Mineral Depletion

For the last couple of weeks, I have been reading about the issue of mineral depletion, since I want to do some research on this topic. The basic question is whether we can keep relying on producing (rare) metals from the earth to (re-) build our society in the foreseeable future.

The only recent book that I could find on the topic was On Borrowed Time? Assessing the Threat of Mineral Depletion, published in 2002. It was written by John E. Tilton, who is an Emeritus Professor in Mineral Economics at the Colorado School of Mines. He has studied the topic for over 30 years.

I can recommend this book to non-experts as it gives a good concise overview on the thinking on mineral depletion. The text is less than 140 pages long and is presented in an accessible non-technical manner. This made it possible for me to read the book in less than 3 hours.

One major drawback to the book, in my opinion, is a pervasive bias regarding how impending scarcity is assessed. Because of the author's background, he believes that price change is the best way to foresee whether mineral scarcity is approaching. Nonetheless, John E. Tilton is honest in stating his views and has done his best to provide an objective text by incorporating other views critical of his own. These views include arguments raised by Ecological Economists, something which in my experience is rare in books written by economists of the traditional school.

Back-to-the-Future Look at Oil Prices--Will Higher Prices Bring More Supplies?

This is a guest post by Glenn Morton, a geophysicist in the oil industry. For Kerr-McGee Oil and Gas Corp., Glenn served as Geophysical Mgr Gulf of Mexico, Geophysical Mgr for the North Sea, Dir. Of Technology and as Exploration Director of China. Currently he is an independent consulting geophysicist.

In 1982, I had a fascinating lunch with my boss's boss's boss, Arco's VP of the Southern Region, Tom Neal. This was at the height of the last oil boom. The price of oil was $32/bbl headed to $100 (everybody knew). I was a 30 something oilman wannabe, Neal had achieved significant success. He taught me about economics that day. He and the VP of the Northern Region, Tom Wilkinson (one had to be a Tom to be a VP in those days), had had a meeting with Peter Drucker. At the time of the meeting, oil had just begun to show some signs of weakness and people were expecting a slight near-term decline in the price of oil. Drucker had asked these two very savvy VP's how low the price of oil would go. Both had mentioned numbers in the low $30s. Neal then told me that Drucker asked them to tell him their worst case scenario. What is the absolute worst that could happen to the price of oil? Neal said he responded with a value of $28 as the absolute worst. Drucker told them that he thought the price would drop to $14, which is about what the price was when the oil boom started in the mid-1970s. Both VPs were aghast, but disbelieving. But by the time of my lunch with Neal, he was beginning to think Drucker was correct.

Jubak: More Peak Everything! (and an open thread)

Jubak uses a nice discussion of peak oil to explain "peak metals" in this article:
Call the theory Peak Metal. The price of gold and other metals, and related stocks, will keep rising as finding new sources gets harder and more expensive.[...]But I find the mechanisms that Peak Oil theory has developed to explain the direction of oil prices and the operation of the oil market immediately applicable to the metals sector.