Stories tagged with "metals"
Mining the Technosphere: Solutions for Industrial Ecosystems
Posted by Rembrandt on August 16, 2009 - 10:15am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: ecosystems, empa, industrial ecosystems, material flows, materials, metals, minerals, mining, recycling, technosphere [list all tags]
Book Review: On Borrowed Time? Assessing the Threat of Mineral Depletion
Posted by Rembrandt on May 15, 2009 - 10:25am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Economics/Finance
Tags: economic rent, metals, mineral depletion, peak minerals, scarcity [list all tags]
For the last couple of weeks, I have been reading about the issue of mineral depletion, since I want to do some research on this topic. The basic question is whether we can keep relying on producing (rare) metals from the earth to (re-) build our society in the foreseeable future.
The only recent book that I could find on the topic was On Borrowed Time? Assessing the Threat of Mineral Depletion, published in 2002. It was written by John E. Tilton, who is an Emeritus Professor in Mineral Economics at the Colorado School of Mines. He has studied the topic for over 30 years.
I can recommend this book to non-experts as it gives a good concise overview on the thinking on mineral depletion. The text is less than 140 pages long and is presented in an accessible non-technical manner. This made it possible for me to read the book in less than 3 hours.
One major drawback to the book, in my opinion, is a pervasive bias regarding how impending scarcity is assessed. Because of the author's background, he believes that price change is the best way to foresee whether mineral scarcity is approaching. Nonetheless, John E. Tilton is honest in stating his views and has done his best to provide an objective text by incorporating other views critical of his own. These views include arguments raised by Ecological Economists, something which in my experience is rare in books written by economists of the traditional school.
Back-to-the-Future Look at Oil Prices--Will Higher Prices Bring More Supplies?
Posted by Prof. Goose on July 10, 2007 - 10:45am
Topic: Economics/Finance
Tags: history, metals, non-renewable, oil, oil prices, peak oil [list all tags]
In 1982, I had a fascinating lunch with my boss's boss's boss, Arco's VP of the Southern Region, Tom Neal. This was at the height of the last oil boom. The price of oil was $32/bbl headed to $100 (everybody knew). I was a 30 something oilman wannabe, Neal had achieved significant success. He taught me about economics that day. He and the VP of the Northern Region, Tom Wilkinson (one had to be a Tom to be a VP in those days), had had a meeting with Peter Drucker. At the time of the meeting, oil had just begun to show some signs of weakness and people were expecting a slight near-term decline in the price of oil. Drucker had asked these two very savvy VP's how low the price of oil would go. Both had mentioned numbers in the low $30s. Neal then told me that Drucker asked them to tell him their worst case scenario. What is the absolute worst that could happen to the price of oil? Neal said he responded with a value of $28 as the absolute worst. Drucker told them that he thought the price would drop to $14, which is about what the price was when the oil boom started in the mid-1970s. Both VPs were aghast, but disbelieving. But by the time of my lunch with Neal, he was beginning to think Drucker was correct.
Jubak: More Peak Everything! (and an open thread)
Posted by Prof. Goose on April 18, 2006 - 6:16pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: everything, metals, minerals, oil, peak oil [list all tags]
Call the theory Peak Metal. The price of gold and other metals, and related stocks, will keep rising as finding new sources gets harder and more expensive.[...]But I find the mechanisms that Peak Oil theory has developed to explain the direction of oil prices and the operation of the oil market immediately applicable to the metals sector.


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