It is clear there are limits to the pollution a given ecosystem can absorb, the level of resources that can be depleted, and debt that can be incurred. Despite concerns of many about these limits we are far from tackling any of these problems on a meaningful scale. The question is why this is the case and if we (the Human Race) have the knowledge and capability to live within such limits on Planet Earth?

In this post, different modeling approaches to gain insights into sustainability will be discussed. We hope that readers will contribute their thinking of what a sustainable ecosystem would look like, and how to map the road towards it. One of the parts of this post is the initial outline of a project to model a human ecosystem from cradle to grave. This project will be carried out by the Institute for Integrated Economic Research (IIER), an institute in which Nate Hagens and myself are involved. Also IIER is looking for individuals to participate in this project, and encourages anyone with a passion for working on resources and energy consumption to take a look at our job advert and contact us via recruiting at iier dot ch.

This is a letter I received from a reader (with the name changed). Below the fold is an expanded version of my answer to him. I would be interested in what other people's thoughts are on this subject as well.

Hello,

My name is John Smith. I have been following the peak oil situation since about 2005. A few years back I thought I had a handle on what I could expect from peak oil. Then, the recession hit, and changed (delayed) everything.

My problem is, I have not seen an rigorous peak oil studies/projections that take recent events into account on peak oil projections going forward. As an expert on the subject, could you please point me to some literature that would be of help?

I do not know what the future holds, but it is clear to me that realities have changed, and with it, the timeline of peak oil.

Regards,
John

Quite a few of us are familiar with the work Dave Rutledge and the Energy Watch Group have done looking at whether the production of coal will peak and when. Steve H. Mohr and G. M. Evans from Australia have been kind enough to offer us a copy of new paper they have written, that has been accepted for publication in the journal Fuel (DOI: 10.1016/j.fuel.2009.01.032) (Link http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00162361 ) This new paper explores the issue further. It develops a wider range of peak dates and emphasizes the need for better coal reserve data. The authors have indicated that they would like our feedback on their approach and how to improve it.

The paper is under the fold. We have tried to render the article in HTML, but it is difficult to make the formatting as perfect as when it is typeset. Please accept our apologies. A PDF version of the article can be downloaded here, if you prefer that format.

Seven am breakfasts in O’Hare are not a habit I plan on developing but there was I, for the second day running, at the same table even at Wolfgang Pucks.. But all in a good cause, as I headed off to Houston for ASPO. Going to the hotel - very new and needed, as the cabby proudly told me,– he asked which Convention I was here for (there is an Olympics meeting of some sort down the hall). I explained about Peak Oil and though initially he had not heard about it, he then mentioned a Houston City Council effort to have the cab companies use hybrids. This is now on hold, since it did not appear to be a well-received suggestion. Concerns that he brought up included the small size of the cars, that they were only 4-cylinder and would not stand the wear that a cab life would impose, and that the cabbies, who have to buy the cabs, could not afford the $3,000 to replace the batteries. Apparently the cab companies had suggested that they would comply right after the police Department bought theirs. Talking at an ASPO break about this, apparently Denver are experimenting with the process, but have only just introduced it with a few cabs., and a quick Google shows that a number of cities have already bitten that bullet.

With getting here a little late I walked into the first joint sessions after they had started, and, as with the ASPO in Cork, the atmosphere immediately conveyed that the meeting would be a success. (Though the initial judgment was made because I had to drop my bag and lean against the wall since there were no free seats, and when more were brought they were still not enough). The audience was obviously knowledgeable and the questions were technical, as were the answers. For the first “Workshop” day the sessions were divided, with TOD stalwarts Stuart Staniford and Euan Mearns giving the story of their incredible detective work in, as an audience member put it, developing the story of Saudi oil with virtually none of the resources or computing power of Aramco, and yet coming very close to what has to be the real story. Stuart explained how the numbers that he, and others at TOD, had put together and painted the picture of Ghawar depletion, (which is in the citation so I won’t repeat it) and Euan put this in the broader context of Saudi Arabia in general. Gail Tverberg acted as moderator to the session and the discussion. Perhaps the crux of the issue is that the authors do not think that Saudi Aramco can produce the volumes that they claim for Ghawar since, in part they assume a higher recovery factor that has been historically true for this type of rock, and with around half the production gone, things are not looking all that good. Reference was made in questions to other papers coming in the meeting that will bring further light to the topic, including such a comment from Matt Simmons.