Stories tagged with "national hurricane center"

Where Are the Hurricanes?

Posted by Dave Cohen on August 24, 2006 - 2:40pm
Topic: Miscellaneous
Tags: hurricanes, national hurricane center, typhoons [list all tags]

[Update by Dave Cohen on 08/24/06 at 12:06 PM EDT] You can read the latest on the hurricanes and climate debate at realclimate.org—Fact, Fiction, and Friction in the Hurricane Debate. The story is by two distinguished climate scientists, Gavin Schmidt and Michael Mann.

What a difference a year makes. Last year at this time, Katrina was bearing down on the Gulf of Mexico and Rita was still in the future. The Oil Drum's traffic was way up as our editors and commentors provided up to the minute coverage.

Today, the National Hurricane Center is tracking Debbie, the 4th named storm of 2006. When Katrina hit, it was "the eleventh named storm, fifth hurricane, third major hurricane, and second Category 5 hurricane of the 2005 Atlantic season."

Where are the hurricanes?

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Checking in on SSTs

Posted by Stuart Staniford on April 30, 2006 - 12:45am
Topic: Environment/Sustainability
Tags: climate change, hurricanes, national hurricane center, peak oil, sst [list all tags]

Sea Surface Temperatures, and anomaly from climatic averages. Source: NOAA.

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National Hurricane Center and the Likelihood of Hurricanes

Posted by Stuart Staniford on March 14, 2006 - 9:36pm
Topic: Environment/Sustainability
Tags: climate change, hurricanes, national hurricane center, peak oil [list all tags]

Consider that in their December 2004 forecast, the NHC reported a 69% chance of a major (Category 3-4-5) hurricane hitting the US, but said of 2005:
We do not, however, expect anything close to the U.S. landfalling hurricane activity of 2004.
Well, they got that wrong...

This begs the question of how likely were the 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons given the NHC forecasts? I'm going to argue that they were quite unlikely, suggesting the NHC, at least in recent years, is systematically underestimating the seriousness of the problem.

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