Articles tagged with "natural gas peak"
Steve Mohr is a young man who recently received his Ph. D. in Chemical Engineering at the University of Newcastle in Australia. His Ph. D. thesis is titled Projection of World Fossil Fuel Production with Supply and Demand Interactions. We published an article of Steve's earlier, called Forecasting Coal Production Until 2010.
In his thesis, Steve makes projections of future oil, coal, and natural gas production, using approaches he developed that consider both supply and demand for each of these three fuels. He makes these estimates assuming three levels of reserves: low estimate, best estimate, and high estimate. In his analysis, natural gas is the fuel that offers the biggest future potential for energy supply, not coal.
Below the fold, Steve provides a summary of his thesis.
Canadian natural gas is important in a number of ways: It provides 17% of total US NG consumption and today contributes roughly 11% [see calc at bottom] of the energy content in a barrel of tar sands oil (which will only increase with in-situ recovery growth). By no means (conventional or unconventional), can Canada be considered to have lots of natural gas, yet, we produce more than our fair share. Accurately predicting Canadian NG supply is, of course, important for all the usual North American energy security reasons and, among others: It would be nice to know if Canadians will have NG for things other than tar sands and exports to the US. Half of all Canadian homes are heated primarily by natural gas and about 6% of Canada's electricity sector relies on natural gas, a lot of which is used as peak electricity generation.
It’s well known that Canadian conventional gas peaked around 2001, but according to a continuing trends prediction case from the National Energy Board, it doesn’t appear as if unconventional gas will be playing a big part, at least compared against 2001 peak production levels. Below I summarize some predictions for future production of Canadian natural gas and try to estimate how much of Canada's natural gas will be left over for regular Canadian citizens.
We need to declare a national crisis," Andrew N. Liveris, the chief executive of the Dow Chemical Company, said in recent testimony before the Senate. Dow, the nation's largest chemical maker, has shut 23 plants in the United States in the last three years in places like Somerset, N.J.; South Charleston, W.Va.; and Elizabethtown, Ky., as it shifted production to Kuwait, Argentina, Malaysia and Germany, where natural gas is cheaper.And while the article suggests that some of the problem arises from the loss of production in the Gulf, there are other causes.
"Call it demand destruction," Mr. Liveris said. "Dozens of plants around the country have closed their doors and gone away, and are never coming back."