The Oil Drum

For the past week I have been in the United Kingdom, beginning in South-West Scotland, where the weather was not kind. I was struck, driving along beside the dams of the Galloway Hydro Scheme with the central dam spilling, and rain sheeting down, by the limits that there are on some forms of renewable power. Here, with fields flooded (all the way down to the Pennines) the limited capacity of the system to store energy above a certain point is a bound that is also found in systems such as wind farms which generally produce power between two limiting wind conditions. Seeking options in a Glasgow hotel for things to do, the front desk suggested either the bar or a movie in one's room. And while this is really the best of seasons for Hunting the Haggis we chose, instead to take a day in Edinburgh before taking the, surprisingly un-crowded, train down to London. Our train was only slightly delayed by track-work to repair weather-related problems, which were not as bad as elsewhere.

The vast numbers of folk trying to move through London's airports this weekend were providing a good reason to show up at least two hours before departure, and though we were ready for the shuttle two-and-a-half hours before departure at the local hotel, the problems the shuttle had with traffic made it just barely possible for us to catch our plane. As we headed across the waiting lounge, however, the thought of a ten-hour flight caused me to stop and snatch a copy of the recent Special Edition of Newsweek, dealing with the Energy Issue. Since I just got back, I am not quite sure how much of this has already been covered, but perhaps I can provide comment to some of the articles in the issue.

It may seem strange, in a week where traders were actually paying folk to buy their natural gas, but I am still a little disquieted about our medium term natural gas situation. (I was going to say long-term but 2010 isn't that far away any longer).

The feeling was regenerated when a reader directed us to Robert Amsterdam's site. Currently he is posting about the story in today's NYT dealing with the construction of the new LNG port at Sabine Pass, LA.. The port is one of several that is being built to bring foreign natural gas to help with the coming shortage in the US. To quote CERA, as the article does:

Liquefied natural gas represents only a 3 percent share of total American natural gas consumption, which is mostly used for industrial purposes and home heating. Cambridge Energy Research Associates estimates that imported liquefied natural gas will account for 10 percent of American use by 2010, and potentially as much as 25 percent by 2020.

Bob Amsterdam believes that by 2010 this 10% will largely come from Russia in general, and our friends in Gazprom in particular, with the projected source of supply likely being Shtokman.