The Oil Drum

I thought that, with the indulgence of the more technically qualified of the commentators, I might take a little time to explain in my own way, some of the many issues that were debated here at TOD over the past week. So, this post is going to be a little bit of a simplified technical explanation of some of those issues--and I will try to bring in some of the comments explaining the issues that appeared somewhat far down the list in our comment threads as well.

But first there was an interesting piece of data that I hadn’t seriously noted until I saw the article. It relates to the actual size of the reserves that remain in Saudi Arabia, a subject I usually shy away from since production rates are more interesting. However, given the numbers it is worth consideration and debate as to what these particular values mean.

On November 7th, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released its World Energy Outlook 2006. At a press conference announcing the new report, the agency's Executive Director was quoted as follows:

"The key word is urgency," IEA director Claude Mandil told a press conference in London following release of the study. "Urgency for immediate policies and measures to promote energy efficiency and facilitate technology development ...

"On current trends, we are on course for an expensive and dirty energy system that will go from crisis to crisis. It can mean more supply disruptions, meteorological disasters or both. This energy future is not only unsustainable, but it is doomed to failure.

"Governments can either accept such a future, or they can decide to come together to change course."

Had the IEA changed its tune? A closer look at the report's conclusions sends a mixed message.