The Oil Drum

The June 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.42 MB, 21 pp).

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

The May 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.15 MB, 21 pp).

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

The April 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.65 MB, 21 pp).

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

The March 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.6 MB, 21 pp).

A summary, latest graphics and an explanatory note regarding a few errors I made last time and the data used below the fold.

The December edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.6 MB, 21 pp).

The November edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.5 MB, 21 pp). At the time of writing the latest IEA oil market report had not yet been published which has therefore not been incorporated in the PDF, but it is included in the figures and charts below.

Latest Developments (these include the IEA report which has not been published):

1) Crude Oil - Latest available figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil production including lease condensates decreased by 706,000 b/d from July to August. Total production in August was estimated at 72.51 million b/d, which is 1.79 million b/d lower than the all time high crude oil production of 74.30 million b/d reached in May 2005.

2) Total liquids - In October world production of total liquids increased by 1.4 million barrels per day from September according to the latest figures of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Resulting in total world liquids production of 86.5 million b/d, which is the all time high maximum liquids production.

The October edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.48 MB, 21 pp).

Latest Developments:

1) Crude oil - Latest available figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) show that crude oil production including lease condensates increased by 455,000 b/d from June to July. Total production in July was estimated at 73.28 million b/d, which is 1.01 million b/d lower than the all time high crude oil production of 74.30 million b/d reached in May 2005.

2) Total liquids - In September world production of total liquids increased by 450,000 barrels per day from August according to the latest figures of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Resulting in total world liquids production of 85.10 million b/d, which is 1.03 million b/d lower than the all time maximum liquids production of 86.13 million b/d reached in July 2006.

3) Status of the production plateau - Both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and Energy Information Administration (EIA) figures show that global liquids production has been on a plateau since 2005. The IEA figures result in an average global production in 2007 up to September of 85.03 million b/d, almost to the same as the average 2006 production of 85.00 million b/d and higher than the average 2005 production of 84.10 million b/d. The EIA puts the average global 2007 production up to July at 84.40 million b/d, slightly lower than the average 2006 production of 84.60 million b/d and the average 2005 production of 84.63 million b/d.

Cork, so the Deputy Lord Mayor told us, is the port that the Titanic sailed from. It is also the place that took delivery of 57 Steinways for its new school of music, and so it was appropriate that we were entertained with song and dance this evening. It should have been a celebration.

As Dr. James Schlesinger, the first Secretary of Energy, said in his Opening Address, the battle is over, Peak Oil is now accepted as inevitable, and the debate only becomes as to when. We have “won” and need to learn to take Yes! as an answer. He spoke mainly of three things – the arrival of the Peak and the recognition that is starting to grow, and to mean that we are no longer lone voices crying in the Wilderness. Trade and government publications are already acceding with back-door concessions that we are facing a moment of truth. He paid tribute to Colin Campbell’s dictum that “before you produce it, you have to develop it”, and reminded us of the gap in matching discoveries as the old fields die out. Having been there, he told of the oil industry laughing when President Carter discussed renewable energy back in 1979. Back then “conservation was not the American way, production was the American way.” But now, to sustain production we need to find 4 or 5 fields the size of all those in Saudi Arabia. It is not going to happen, but before we celebrate, remember that there are political and technical realities. And, as the day wore on, the mercilessness of the numbers began to be apparent.

The September edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.50 MB, 19 pp).

Latest developments:

1) OPEC Demand - In 2002 OPEC-11 (excluding Iraq) consumed 4.63 million b/d according to the JODI database. Since then, demand has increased by 1.1 million b/d to 5.69 million b/d in 2006. The increase was mainly caused by higher consumption in Iran and Saudi Arabia, which increased by 234,000 and 418,000 b/d between 2002 and 2006 respectively. 2007 shows an acceleration of this trend in both countries. In Saudi Arabia, liquids consumption in the first half of 2007 reached 1.46 million b/d. An increase of 128,000 b/d compared to the consumption level of 1.33 million b/d in the first half of 2006. In Iran consumption increased by 100,000 b/d to 1.57 million b/d in the first half of 2007, compared to 1.47 million b/d in the first half of 2006.

2) Crude oil - As of the time of writing the latest numbers from the EIA's International Petroleum Monthly were not yet available.

3) Total Liquids - In August world production of total liquids decreased by 430,000 barrels per day from July according to the latest figures of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Resulting in total world liquids production of 84.60 million b/d, which is 854,000 b/d lower year on year from August 2006 to August 2007 and 1.53 million b/d lower than all time maximum liquids production of 86.13 million b/d reached in July 2006. The average production in 2007 up to August has been 85.05 million b/d, comparable to the average 2006 production of 85.00 million b/d.

4) OPEC - Total crude oil production of the OPEC cartel decreased by 80,000 b/d to a level of 30.16 million b/d, from July to August, according to the latest estimates of the IEA. Natural Gas Liquids production increased with 20.000 b/d to 4.82 million b/d, from June to July, according to the IEA. The average total liquids production in 2007 up to August has been 35.12 million b/d, which is 593,000 b/d lower than average 2006 production of 35.71 million b/d.

The August edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.40 MB, 19 pp). New are historical charts portraying production back to 1930, shown next to the production developments from 2002 - present.

Latest developments:

1) Crude oil - Production of crude oil decreased by 503,000 b/d from April to May. Total production in May was estimated at 73.06 million b/d by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), which is 1.21 million b/d lower than all time high crude oil production of 74.27 million b/d reached in May 2005.

2) Total Liquids- Production of all Liquid fuels decreased by 550,000 barrels per day from May to June, according to the latest figures of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Resulting in total world liquids production of 84.28 million b/d, which is 564,000 b/d lower year on year from June 2006 to June 2007 and 1.85 million b/d lower than all time maximum liquids production of 86.13 million b/d reached in July 2006.

3) OPEC - Total crude oil production of the OPEC cartel decreased by 50,000 b/d to a level of 30.16 million b/d from May to June, according to the latest estimates of the IEA. Preliminary figures from the EIA show an increase of 370,000 b/d from June to July resulting in OPEC crude production of 30.37 million b/d.

4) Non-OPEC - Total liquids production of non-OPEC decreased by 460,000 b/d from May to June, according to the latest figures of the IEA. Production has dropped from 50.57 million b/d in February to 49.31 million b/d in June. The overall production decrease in June resulted mainly from declining production in Canada (130,000 b/d), the United Kingdom (140,000 b/d) and Norway (370,000 b/d). Mexican production increased with 30,000 b/d in June.