The Oil Drum

OECD European gas production looks set to peak in 2008. After that, falling production combined with rising demand will see OECD European gas imports wanting to rise from current 197 BCM per annum to 442 BCM per annum by 2020. Where will this gas come from and how will rising European imports affect N America and the rest of the world?

Figure 1 OECD Europe gas production and conceptual forecast. Click all charts to enlarge

This post examines the impact of delaying oil field developments and producing at below capacity upon reserves estimates made using Hubbert Linearisation. Robert Rapier had a similar post some months back using synthetic data. This post uses real data from Norway and three different story lines are described and analysed.

1. Norway
2. Fjordland – same as Norway but with 4 fields allowed to lie fallow and 20% of production withheld from 1981 to the present day
3. Fjelland – same as Fjordland but with the 4 fallow fields developed in 2001-2004 and full production reinstated from 2002.

The significance for predicting national and global oil reserves and peak oil are discussed.

Resolved: World Net Oil Export Capacity is Now Declining Because of Involuntary Reductions in Production and/or Because of Increases in Domestic Consumption in Major Oil Exporting Countries

Robert Rapier suggested that we debate this topic, and I agreed. In reality, there are only shades of gray difference between us regarding the timing of Peak Oil and Peak Exports. I believe that the crisis has hit, while Robert believes that the worst won't be upon us until some time shortly after 2010. Robert will file his rejoinder about a week from today.

These forecasts have a significant impact upon forecast trade balance, particularly in the UK which has just turned net oil importer. So lets see how the UK and Norway are going to pull off this gravity defying, Hubbert denying stunt.

This article is a first simplistic (but comprehensive) assessment of World Oil Exports, here defined has the total amount of liquid hydrocarbons that are surpluses in producing countries. This assessment is made by projecting in to the future fixed change rates that reflect current trends in liquids production and consumption in countries where presently the difference between the two is positive. The outcome of this assessment is worrisome.

Let's assume that we have a world where all oil production is from one country--Export Land--that produces 20 mbpd, consumes 10 mbpd, and exports 10 mbpd to oil consuming countries around the world.

Export Land hits the 50% of Qt (URR) point, and over a five year period production drops by 25%.   Over the same time period, Export Land's consumption increases by 20% to 12 mbpd.  This causes Export Land's net exports over the five year period to fall from 10 mbpd to 3 mbpd, a decrease of 70%--resulting from a combination of increasing domestic consumption in Export Land and a 25% drop in production.

Let's look at real world production with our hypothetical Export Land as a model.