Stories tagged with "NYMEX"

Oil: the Market is the Manipulation

This is a guest post by Chris Cook. Chris is Former Director of the International Petroleum Exchange, and is now a Strategic Market Consultant and commentator.

Clearly manipulation has been going on in the global market in oil – there's nothing new about that – it's what intermediaries who transact for profit do and have always done. Indeed, some market wags say that trading could be defined as “acceptable market manipulation”. But until the last few years what consenting adults were doing among themselves in the oil market didn't really affect the man in the street.

But things have changed. We have now reached the culmination of a process of financialisation of the oil market to a degree where the market has become entirely sociopathic. It now operates to the detriment of consumers and producers alike and for the benefit of the intermediaries who control the market.

How did we get here? Who's doing it? How are they doing it? And what can be done about it?

Are We in a Speculative Bubble with Regard to Oil Prices?

Maybe the two most common explanations (or myths) about high oil prices are:
  1. oil companies are manipulating prices
  2. speculators are driving prices up
Of course, these two explanations are satisfying our natural impulse to find scapegoats rather than facing the depressing facts of fossil fuel depletion. Robert Rapier already debunked the first allegation, the second one is much more nebulous and has always troubled me since I got interested in peak oil. Stuart Staniford looked also at this problem (Is Oil in a Price Bubble?) by noting that price were following a clean exponential rise (at least until the beginning of this year) and not an upward quadratic model which has been observed in the real estate bubble. Last year, the Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations has published a report supporting the speculative theory. Yesterday, the Qatari Energy Minister, Abdullah bin Hamad al-Attiyah declared:
"To increase by 500,000 or one million barrels, do you believe today it will bring back the price?" Attiyah asked. "I don't think so," he said, emphasizing his view that the price of oil had become almost wholly decoupled from supplies. Financial players "lost a lot of money on real estate, shares and bonds, and then they jumped to commodities," including oil, Attiyah said.
Herald Tribune