The Oil Drum

I have given a lot of thought to the issue of opening up new areas for drilling in the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) and in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR). My position has always been to leave that oil in place for a very rainy day. I wanted to see major conservation efforts in place before we considered tapping that oil. Opening those areas when oil was $20 a barrel would have meant that much of it would have been used frivolously.

Now that oil is over $100 - and in my opinion will be much higher in 5 or 10 years (T. Boone Pickens predicts $300/bbl in 10 years) - we will have tightened our belts a good deal by the time any of this oil could actually reach the market. Therefore, I think now is the time for Congressional hearings on opening up these areas. Let's have an open debate on the issue. However, if these areas are opened for drilling, I have a compromise that should be very attractive to those in opposition.

The SMH has an article on a "Plan to drill for oil off NSW coast", with the would be explorers hoping to have a drilling rig exploring the area in May next year and touting estimates of 1 billion barrel find.

An Australian joint venture is planning to drill off the NSW coast in search of oil and gas in a move that has outraged green groups. The venture says the skyrocketing world oil price has made it feasible to establish a drilling rig 22 kilometres offshore between the Central Coast and Newcastle, The Sunday Telegraph newspaper reports.

One of the firms, Perth-based MEC Resources, says air surveys indicate there is petroleum at the target site. The listed company told the Australian Stock Exchange on Friday: "MEC was reviewing new data from an airborne survey conducted east of Newcastle which detected evidence of petroleum seeps on the sea surface." ... The MEC report estimates undersea reserves of up to 1 billion barrels of oil and enough gas to meet Sydney's needs for a decade. It is seeking shareholder approval to restructure its oil and gas assets to improve access to capital for exploration.

Well, just in case you thought that the worsening tropical storm situation was confined to the US Gulf, we have another warning that this year might continue with the same intensity that has already been suggested by the storms hitting Australia. Now there is this.

Typhoon Chanchu, which means "pearl" in Chinese, was about 600 kilometers (372 miles) south of Hong Kong early Tuesday, the observatory said. It was moving at 16 kph (10 mph) and packing maximum sustained winds of 170 kph (105 mph), the observatory said.

Chanchu was the strongest typhoon on record to enter the South China Sea in May, the observatory said.

The storm roared towards Hong Kong after whirling over the Philippines last weekend, killing at least 37 people and leaving thousands homeless..

Looking back on the plus or minus 15 billion dollars (my estimate from studying Wood MacKenzie and other data) that publicly-traded companies spent on exploration in 2005, what did they get for their investment, and what are the themes that emerge?  Who were the winners and who were the losers?  Where is the action and where have these companies given up on?

First of all, my reading of the data, plus my own personal experience leads me to discern the following themes: Deeper water, deeper reservoirs, smaller discoveries, more gas, less oil.