Stories tagged with "oil exports"

The Changing Oil Supply Perspective - Opening Lecture Class Note Changes

Posted by Heading Out on August 26, 2009 - 10:16am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: camelina oil, canada, export land model, mexico, oil exports, russia, samotlor, saudi arabia [list all tags]

It’s the start of a new Semester, and at the beginning of my Power class I spend the first lecture reviewing where I think we stand on the Energy supply to the United States. This has changed a bit since last year and so I thought I would run through some of the changes that I made to my lecture this year, in the same way as I did last September. Since the greatest impact is likely to come from the changing sources of supply that the US has had to go to, with the change in levels of production, I began with this slide:


Sources of Oil imported to the US in May 2009 (EIA)

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World Oil Exports; US Oil Imports; and a Few Thoughts on Canada

Posted by Gail the Actuary on August 13, 2009 - 10:15am
Topic: Demand/Consumption
Tags: canada, oil exports, oil imports, oil sands, tar sands [list all tags]

Matt Mushalik from Australia was good enough to send me this graph of world oil exports, calculated from new oil data provided by the EIA.


Figure 1. World net exports, based on EIA data

This inspired me to put together a few other somewhat related graphs, relating to oil exports and US imports. Since Canada is such a tiny piece of world exports, but seems to be mentioned as a possible major source of future US imports, I have looked at it separately as well.

The likelihood of a huge ramp up in imports from Canada seems remote. Canadian exports to the US require continued imports to the East Coast of Canada. If imports of oil to Canada decline as world exports decline, US oil imports from Canada may also decline, because ramped up production from oil sands may not be enough to offset declines in production and imports elsewhere.

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World Oil Exports [02] Libya

Posted by Luis de Sousa on September 18, 2008 - 10:10am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: colin campbell, exports, jean laherrère, libya, muammar al-gaddafi, oil exports, original, richard duncan, walter youngquist, woe, world oil exports [list all tags]



Where are Libya's oil exports headed?

Libya is a relatively new country, having declared independence in 1951. For the last 39 years, the country has been ruled by a single man, Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi. Over the years, the identity of this leader and his exquisite sense of style have mingled with the identity of the country itself.

Libya joined OPEC right after its creation, and played a pivotal role in the 1973 oil crisis. For the next three decades, Libya endured tense (and sometimes belligerent) relations with western countries. In recent years, as international oil prices have been rising, Libya has been able to re-institute itself as a reliable partner to the West, taking full advantage of the wealth promised by its still considerable oil resources.

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World Oil Exports [01] Angola

Posted by Luis de Sousa on July 1, 2008 - 10:00am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: angola, exports, oil exports, original, woe, world oil exports [list all tags]

Angola is one of the few oil producing countries with a bright future ahead. Decades of war prevented the country from developing it's energy resources properly, but is now becoming one of the largest world oil exporters in a period of rampant prices. Just as if Fortune decided to compensate Angola for its misfortunes during the XX century.

Becoming an OPEC member just recently, Angola is set to build one of the strongest economies in Africa, with its GDP growing over 30% 15% annually (numbers here), one of the highest rates in the world. Hopefully Oil will be just the trigger of a golden era in a country that possesses other important natural resources.
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World Oil Exports [00] Introduction

Posted by Luis de Sousa on June 27, 2008 - 9:55am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Miscellaneous
Tags: export land model, exports, oil exports, original, woe, world oil exports [list all tags]


World Oil Exports model as of November 2006.
Click to enlarge.

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Energy Export Databrowser

Posted by Robert Rapier on June 10, 2008 - 9:50am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: natural gas, oil consumption, oil exports, oil imports, oil production [list all tags]

Jonathan Callahan, a Ph.D. chemist who spent 12 years working for NOAA, has created a very useful databrowser for exploring the supply/demand situation in various countries around the world. Based on BP's 2007 Statistical Review, it provides a quick and easy way to see the trends for whether countries are consuming or producing, importing or exporting crude oil and natural gas. The tool may be found at Energy Export Databrowser.

How useful is this tool? It took me about 5 seconds to pull up the following graphic for crude oil trends in the U.S.:

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U.S. Oil and Gasoline Import Statistics

Posted by Robert Rapier on April 25, 2008 - 10:01am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: eia, gasoline imports, investing, oil exports, oil imports, oil production [list all tags]

I actually started on this post about a year ago, and forgot about it until recently. Here I provide 2007 numbers on the sources for oil and gasoline imports into the U.S., courtesy of the Energy Information Administration.

For 2007, the Top 10 exporters of finished gasoline to the U.S. in million barrels were:

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Declining net oil exports--a temporary decline or a long term trend?

Posted by Sam Foucher on September 27, 2007 - 10:00am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: export land model, indonesia, oil exports, original, united kingdom [list all tags]

This is a post coauthored by myself and by Friend of TOD Jeffrey J. Brown (westexas), an independent petroleum geologist in the Dallas, Texas area.
To answer the question in the title of this paper, we believe, for reasons outlined below, that the current decline in world net oil exports is probably the start of a long term trend, as a result of declining production and/or increasing consumption in key exporting countries.

EIA data show a small decline in world net oil exports from 2005 to 2006, led by a 3.3% per year decline rate in net exports from the top three net oil exporters--Saudi Arabia, Russia and Norway. Furthermore, recent data suggest that the net export decline is continuing, and probably accelerating.
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Net Oil Exports and the "Iron Triangle"

Posted by Sam Foucher on July 13, 2007 - 10:00am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: export land model, oil exports [list all tags]

This is a post by Jeffrey J. Brown, an independent petroleum geologist in the Dallas, Texas area.

As Matt Simmons pointed out several years ago, the critical problem with post-peak exporting regions is that we would have two exponential functions (declining production and generally increasing consumption) working against net exports. From the point of view of importers, it is quite likely that we are facing a crash in oil supplies. In my opinion, what I have described as the “Iron Triangle” is doing everything possible to keep this message from reaching consumers.

In an essay posted on The Oil Drum blog in January 2006, I warned of an impending net oil export crisis, and I used what I called the Export Land Model (ELM) to illustrate the detrimental effect on net oil exports of declining production and increasing consumption. Figure One is a simple graph that illustrates the ELM.


Figure One
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Russian Car Sales & Net Oil Exports

Posted by Sam Foucher on June 9, 2007 - 10:46am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: car sales, oil exports, russia [list all tags]

This a guest post by Jeffrey J. Brown (westexas)

The following story about booming Russian car sales is a perfect example of the “Export Land” Model, where rising domestic consumption in exporting countries can overwhelm increases in oil production, resulting in lower net oil exports.

As I warned in January, 2006 (see my article, “Net Oil Exports Revisited”), net oil exports by all of the top three net oil exporters (Saudi Arabia, Russia and Norway) fell from 2005 to 2006 (EIA data). Based on the following article, since 2002, foreign car sales in Russia have been increasing at the rate of about 50% per year (doubling about every 1.4 years). I wonder what effect this is having on gasoline consumption in Russia?

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