Stories tagged with "oil production"
Time and the Latest CERA Report: Why 2030 for the Peak?
Posted by Heading Out on November 18, 2009 - 10:21am
Topic: Miscellaneous
Tags: cera, oil production, peak oil [list all tags]
One of the features of many models that are used to predict future events is that they focus on target years. Decadal years are the most common target years, so that whether talking of climate or the amount of oil or natural gas available, models focus on, for example, the amount that will be available in 2030. The problem with this approach is that it leaves the public to think that a problem is not yet serious. For example if the prediction is that the production of oil will only be 75 mbd, in 2030 then there is an implication that until 2030 that the situation will remain fine.
However the world does not reach those levels by continuing in the business as usual mode for the next 21 years, and then suddenly have production drop off a cliff one Friday night. Rather it is a problem that inexorably will grow, year on year, between now and then. I was struck by this thought as I looked through the latest comments from CERA/IHS on their view of the future of oil supply. Their view, as we have come to expect, is an optimistic one, and though we are not still living in the days of $30 oil that they had, at one time predicted, it is worth looking into so as to provide some explanation of the difference between their view and mine.
Oil Production is Reaching its Limit: The Basics of What This Means
Posted by Gail the Actuary on November 16, 2009 - 5:35pm
Topic: Economics/Finance
Tags: oil production, overview, peak oil [list all tags]
I decided to write another rather basic level article because there are so many people I meet who have heard a bit about the oil situation, and it is hard to point to one single article to give an overview of some of the current issues. Regular readers will find many repeats of graphs. There are some new ones, as well, from the Denver ASPO-USA conference. Because there is so much to tell, the story gets a little long.
We live in a finite world. It is clear that at some point, we will eventually start hitting limits—we won’t be able to extract as much oil, or we won’t be able to mine as much silver or platinum, or fresh-water aquifers that have built up over millions of years will run dry.
We are reaching limits in several areas, but the one I would like to talk about here is oil production. Oil is essential, because nearly all transportation depends on oil, and because a huge number of goods use oil in their manufacture (including textiles, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, asphalt, plastics, lubricating oils, and computers). Oil is also essential for our current agricultural system--growing food and transporting it to market.
Insights Regarding Future World Oil Production Based on ASPO Denver Presentations
Posted by Rembrandt on October 26, 2009 - 10:27am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Demand/Consumption
Tags: aspo, aspo denver, aspo-8, aspo-usa, oil production, peak oil [list all tags]
"Peak oil can be a very tricky topic, the way I talk about it and deal with it at the end of the day is: We need to revolutionize the way we consume and produce energy... We need to really be the leaders in saying: the future for our children and our grandchildren as far as energy consumption and as far as production, it looks like this" with those words Colorado Governor Bill Ritter started his closing speech at the ASPO conference in Denver that took place from 10 to 12 October 2009.
Telling our children and grandchildren where they will draw their heat, electricity and liquid fuels from was not a topic of discussion in Denver. Nonetheless, much information was conveyed on the relationship between the economics crisis and the future of oil. This post is an attempt to summarize the main points on oil and the economy from the conference presentations--concluding that there are three distinct future trajectories as we go forward.
At the Denver conference, world oil production was discussed from both the supply side (what flow rate can be reached) and the demand side (how much can the economy afford). It is really the combination of the two that is important--so I bring together both in this post.
Reserves and Production: A Simple Example (based on Abqaiq in Saudi Arabia)
Posted by Heading Out on October 18, 2009 - 10:48am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: abqaiq, oil production, tech talk, water flood [list all tags]
So far in this series of technical talks, I have tried to explain some of the pieces that have to be put together to get crude oil or natural gas out of the ground. I intend to go on with the series in the coming weeks, but thought that today I would put some of the different thoughts that I have talked about recently together. So I am going to talk a little about reserve calculations and production and will use an example to show how the numbers are derived. And again, let me stress that this is a very simplified example. It is also only somewhat fictionalized, as I shall comment at the end.
Let me start by assuming that I have a layer of rock that is 300 ft thick, five miles wide and thirty miles long.
Where we really stand with respect to oil and natural gas supplies
Posted by Heading Out on September 29, 2009 - 10:39am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: natural gas production, oil production [list all tags]
A few days ago, I gave a presentation in Poland that talks about how much difficulty the world is having maintaining its oil production. The presentation was not set up to be a response to Jad Mouawad's recent New York Times article, Oil Industry Sets a Brisk Pace of New Discoveries, but in many ways it is one. Our recent discoveries really have not been enough to make up for our many production problems elsewhere. We are having problems not only with oil, but with natural gas. The solution the financially distressed world is increasingly considering is . . . well, read the story to see.
Book Review - Crude World: The Violent Twilight of Oil
Posted by Robert Rapier on September 22, 2009 - 2:00pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: book review, matthew simmons, oil companies, oil consumption, oil exploration, oil production, peter maass [list all tags]
Introduction
It succors and drowns human life. And for the last eight years, oil — and the people and places that make it — was my obsession. - Peter Maass
Today a new book by Peter Maass was released. The book is called Crude World: The Violent Twilight of Oil. Peter Maass is a name you may know from a 2005 article that he wrote for the New York Times called The Breaking Point. The story was a comprehensive look at where he thought oil production/prices were headed - and what the implications might be. Maass focused on Saudi Arabia in the article, and spent a lot of time covering Matt Simmons' viewpoints. It was after reading this story that New York Times columnist John Tierney offered to bet Simmons on the future direction of oil prices. Thus arose the Simmons-Tierney bet.
I thought Maass' 2005 article was well-researched, and it was a captivating read. So when Mr. Maass e-mailed and asked if I would like a copy of his new book, I thought it would probably be a book I would enjoy. I still have a stack of books that have been sent to me to review, but I jumped this one to the front of the queue. I hadn't really intended to, as I am working on two other books right now*, and would normally finish those before starting another. But once I picked this book up and started thumbing through it, I couldn't put it down.
Report: The Interplay between Climate Change and Peak Oil
Posted by Rembrandt on May 5, 2009 - 9:54am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: climate change, oil production, peak oil, unconventional oil [list all tags]
Changes in the oil market and climate change are generally seen as separate phenomena. Although it is common knowledge that fossil fuels are the predominant source of CO2 emissions, the interplay between these emissions and fossil fuel scarcity is a topic that has scarcely been researched.
A new report from ASPO Netherlands provides a focused view of the interplay between these two themes. The report indicates that while the peaking of oil production would by itself have a favorable impact on carbon dioxide emission, this beneficial effect may be mostly offset by increased emissions from unconventional oil production. The report can be downloaded here (PDF, 2.4 MB, 56 pp) and a summary can be found below the fold.
Book Review: Oil 101
Posted by Robert Rapier on April 28, 2009 - 2:00pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: book review, morgan downey, oil market, oil production, refineries [list all tags]

It doesn't matter if you are a complete novice or already know quite a bit about the industry; there is something for everyone in this book. Downey displays a deep understanding across all sectors of the industry. For instance, if I didn't know better I would have guessed that the refining chapter was written by someone who had spent an entire career in the refining industry. The only books on refining that I have read that were more comprehensive were those written specifically as technical guides for running a refinery. Other areas are covered in similar detail.
Iraqi Oil: Black Gold or Black Hole?
Posted by Gail the Actuary on April 27, 2009 - 10:05am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: iraq, oil production [list all tags]
This is a guest post by Nawar Alsaadi. Nawar currently lives in Canada, but lived in Iraq until 1990. He still has close ties to the country, and has been following the situation closely there.
Investors and global oil companies such as Shell Petroleum, Eni, China National Petroleum, and Exxon Mobile betting on Iraq are certain to be disappointed.
Ever since the fall of Baghdad in April 2003, we have heard about the unlimited potential for the Iraqi oil. Often news reports mention that Iraq has the third largest oil reserves in the world, and that Iraq's oil ministry has a goal of producing 6 million barrels/day of oil over the medium term.
However, six years after the fall of Baghdad, the country is nowhere close to producing 6 million barrels a day. As a matter of fact, the country is still not producing at the same level it did before the war (2.2m bpd vs 2.5m bpd before the war). It is worth noting that the pre-war level was achieved despite years of war and crippling economic sanctions. Yet despite current access to capital and technology, the country could not yield better results than oil production under the Saddam regime in the midst of war and sanctions.
There are several reasons why Iraq has failed to rise to the occasion, and in this article I will attempt to address some of them:
• Endemic corruption
• Political reserves
• Bad management
• Political rivalry and foreign oil company stalemates
• Political insecurity
The Next Five Years: Peak Lite and the Current Oil Picture
Posted by Robert Rapier on March 26, 2009 - 9:28am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: oil prices, oil production, peak lite, peak oil [list all tags]
A few years ago, after spending a lot of time thinking about peak oil, and then watching the price of oil break out of its historical trading range and head higher, the idea of Peak Lite came to me. Over time the price of oil had bounced between $10 and $30 a barrel, but about 5 years ago it broke from that pattern and started the steady climb that culminated in $147/bbl last summer. I had been having various debates about whether we were or weren't at the global peak in oil production (I was taking the 'not yet but soon' position), but it started to become clear to me that we didn't require a global peak before we started to feel the impact of peak oil.



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