Articles tagged with "Opec Oil Production"
Posted by Heading Out on March 7, 2013 - 5:41am
Tags: arctic, exxonmobil, gazprom, israel, kara sea, lukoil, opec oil production, rosneft, shell, shtokman, tamar, yamal [list all tags]
The Arctic is a less forgiving place than many folk care to recognize. Shell has just moved back the date on which they plan to restart drilling in the Chukchi Sea and won’t be going up there this year. At the same time, Gazprom announced last August that the development of the Shtokman gas field off the Russian coast and also in the Arctic had been put on an indefinite delay. Yet the region still shows considerable promise. ExxonMobil and Rosneft have agreed to exploration in the Chukchi, Laptev and Kara Seas, with the latter considered as possibly having the highest potential.
The blocks that will be explored are south of the island of Novaya Zemlya, in relatively shallow water. They lie north of the Yamal Peninsula, and the Shtokman field is on the other side of the island.
Rosneft estimates that the recoverable reserves are 6.2 billion tons of oil, and a total of 20.9 billion tons of oil equivalent when the natural gas content is included. The first wildcat well is scheduled to be drilled in 2015.
Posted by Heading Out on January 23, 2013 - 10:59am
Tags: gas prices, iran, iraq, nigeria, opec oil production, saudi crude production, vehicle miles driven, venezuela [list all tags]
Leanan has noted the API report of the continuing drop in US oil demand. It would be wrong, I believe, to explain this purely by reference to the increased efficiency of vehicles now on the road, nor would it be realistic to expect that these changing conditions will result in a lowering of gas prices.
To explain the rationale behind these thoughts requires reference to two sets of data. The most potent is the behavior of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), but before discussing their actions the story begins with the changes in the miles travelled reports that are issued by the Federal Highway Administration each month. Driven by a comment on recent versions of that plot, it is worth revisiting the summary of the rolling total of miles travelled in the United States, with the October 2012 plot being the last available.
With the possibility that demand for Iranian oil may fall below 1 million barrels a day (mbd) as sanctions continue to bite, Iran has announced that it wants OPEC to cut back production to the agreed quotas, rather than the overall additional 1 mbd that is actually being produced and sold. Such a move would, of course, make it more difficult for those customers who have found a way to replace Iranian oil, and perhaps incline them more toward disregarding the embargo.
OPEC has just released their December Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) in which they anticipate that earlier projections for 2013 oil demand growth will still be valid at 0.8 mbd. (Though they note that December 2012 growth y-o-y was at 1.0 mbd as the US economy continued to improve). They expect that all of this increase will be met by non-OPEC increases in supply, and that demand for OPEC oil may even drop 0.4 mbd. Part of that projection continues to rely on increased US crude production, and the EIA TWIP of December 5th had the latest chart showing that projected growth, based on the newly released Annual Energy Outlook 2013.
Figure 1. Projections of future growth in US crude oil production. (EIA TWIP) from Annual Energy Outlook 2013)
As a footnote to that graph, the Alyeska pipeline pumped an average of 582,755 bd in November, which brings the annual average up to 544, 625 bd. It is clear from looking at that plot that the gains in production are assumed to come from increased production of the "tight" oil deposits that have produced the overall gains achieved to date. The optimism of this projection goes a little beyond the levels that I anticipate will be achieved.
Posted by Heading Out on March 25, 2012 - 10:27am
Tags: crude oil production, dammam, global demand, hoarding, iran sanctions, opec oil production, saudi arabia [list all tags]
There is some debate in the mainstream press about the relative causes and impacts of the rising gasoline price on the overall economy. (I paid $4.40 per gallon in Silicon Valley on Sunday, though only $3.67 in mid-Missouri today). As noted in my previous post, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is unique in its potential ability to increase oil production at relatively short notice, in order to deal with a shortfall in that overall supply. With the tightening of supplies from some of the nations that have seen the impact of the “Arab Spring”, there is a concern that there may be such a disruption, as was seen during the recent turmoil in Libya. Fortunately the damage to that oil production infrastructure was minor, and the nation seems well on its way to returning to a "business as usual" situation. Unfortunately, there are still Yemen, Syria, Sudan and Iran to worry about, and so available additional supply provides some comfort to the market.
Yet in itself, some of that relief is misplaced. OPEC suggests in its March Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) that world oil demand is anticipated to grow by around 900 kbd this year, of which 600 kbd is expected to come from non-OPEC sources. In February, OPEC increased production by 140 kbd to average 30.97 mbd but expects that, over the year, demand for their crude will average 30 mbd. (Note that this does not include stock build-ups, and China has been building their SPR at a rate of up to 0.8 mbd). OPEC also suggests that OPEC NGL production will increase another 360 kbd over 2012. Their plot of global and OPEC oil production over the past two years is below.
Posted by Heading Out on June 15, 2011 - 10:55am
Tags: energy demand, non-opec oil production, opec, opec monthly oil report, opec oil production, saudi arabian oil production [list all tags]
With the turmoil in the Middle East and North African countries (MENA) now more evident in nature, the impacts on global oil production can be more rationally assessed. In this vein, the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for June has now been released. The main feature article looks at the prospects for the rest of the year, and as Leanan caught in Drumbeat, one of the major concerns has to be that OPEC supply, at current levels (28.97 mbd), does not reach the anticipated average demand for the year (29.9 mbd). However, putting that in context, MOMR begins by noting that the price of the OPEC basket fell $8.15 in May, to $110/bbl, so there are mixed signals in the air. Further, OPEC currently reports that they collectively supplied an average of 29.6 mbd in 2010, so that the increase in supply needed over last year is only 0.3 mbd.
As I mentioned earlier in the week, the disputes within OPEC have so far left the organization unwilling to sanction the increases needed to meet the anticipated imbalance. Whether this is a ploy by Saudi Arabia (KSA) to appear “friendly” to the customer, while bowing to majority rule and keeping supply tight enough to force prices higher, or whether the KSA will unilaterally release more oil is currently in question. The level of increase that KSA has suggested, 1.5 mbd, may appear to be larger than that needed to bring supply and demand into balance. Demand is seasonal, however, and is expected to maximize in the third quarter, during which global demand is expected to rise some 2.3 mbd, with growth continuing with a further addition of 0.2 mbd in the fourth quarter. Thus, in that context, it is interesting to see how the MOMR reflects the current organizational view of the next six months.
The development of oil in Texas produced, in its time, the four richest men in the world (H.L. Hunt, Sid Richardson, Roy Cullen and Clint Murchison) and the single richest acre of oil production at Kilgore but is not where the greatest number of productive fields of oil per acre, or perhaps the most expensive acre in the country lies. (And the current richest American oilman, Harold Hamm, incidentally is now from Oklahoma - oh, tempora). That expensive acreage is found in and around Los Angeles in California, and so it is California that I will write about today.
The impacts of the disruptions in the Middle East are now starting to become evident as supplies no longer flow into the delivery pipelines that carry fuel from countries such as Libya to their European customers. It is now considered likely that the 1.6 mbd that Libya delivers to the world market will not be available for some time. Ireland, for example, which has had other problems with the banks in the recent past, is now faced with the loss of perhaps 23% of its fuel supply, which while only 14 kbd is, for that country, likely to be very significant. For while the Libyan shortage at present may be just due to Gadhafi ordering the ports closed, if he is also ordering the destruction of facilities, as is rumored, then the consequences may be more long term. ENI has reported that the Libyan shortfall is currently 1.2 mbd.
It is in this context that the world turns to OPEC, which has stated that it has enough oil in reserve to stabilize deliveries, and looks to see a compensating production increase from those nations with that potential. And here is the rub, for some OPEC countries are themselves in a little political difficulty which might negatively impact their own production, while those that can, in the short term, increase flow volumes to match the shortfall are likely all called Saudi Arabia.
Posted by Heading Out on February 27, 2011 - 6:52am
Tags: algeria, brazil, condensate, crude oil production, iraq, natural gas pipelines, natural gas supply, ngl, norway, opec oil production [list all tags]
This current series of posts is aimed at an overview of the top oil producing nations, seeking to establish how the ranking of the countries is changing from the original table that EIA put out in 2008. After looking at the conditions governing the top six, this was followed last week when I looked at the condition of the following three (Mexico, UAE and Kuwait) in a little detail, but having spent four posts on Veneuela in the recent past forebore going back there again.
It is worth recapping, however, that the initial order has changed, and that Russia is currently at the head of the League, slightly ahead of Saudi Arabia, with both producing somewhere around 10.2 mbd. I’ll go more into that detail as the posts focus in on the individual countries later. The United States' production, if one includes ethanol, is around 8.2 mbd, and this is in third place. China has moved into fourth place, slightly ahead of Iran which is followed by Canada. At present these six appear to be the only countries producing over 3 mbd.
In the next tier down I have already mentioned the United Arab Emirates, which have moved into 7th place, with a production of around 2.81 mbd, now ahead of Mexico, albeit perhaps barely (based on the addition of NGLs etc). As with the UAE Kuwait has been limiting production in line with OPEC requests, but while only producting at around 2.35 mbd at the moment, is looking to increase this to up to 3.5 mdb by 2015, which would move it into the top tier. Venezuela, although it too has some grandiose plans, based on the potential increases in production from their tar sands, is currently producing at down around 2.26 mbd. As I have mentioned Venezuela does have plans to raise production to 4 mbd by 2015. However recent commitments to China of up to 1 mbd and problems that Venezuela continues to have in meeting current obligations leaves a large question mark on those predictions.
And so we come to the lower half of the second tier.