The Oil Drum

Last night, on ABC's Nightline, Terry Moran interviewed President Bush in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, during his trip to the Middle East. When discussing what President Bush might say to the King of Saudi Arabia to lower oil prices, George Bush said:

If they don't have a lot of additional oil to put on the market, it is hard to ask somebody to do something they may not be able to do.

If Saudi Arabia doesn't have a much additional oil to put on the market, the veracity of what Saudi Arabia has been saying about extra capacity is brought into question. More importantly, it starts raising questions about Saudi Arabia's true long-term oil production capability. Can Saudi Arabia really ramp up oil production in the future? Are the high reserves posted by Saudi Arabia and other Middle-Eastern countries really indicative of high future production capability?

The interview with George W. Bush can be seen at this link. The above quote is about 1:55 into the interview.

This is a link to a Press Release we did with respect to this story. Feel free to link to it in your Blogs.

For me, the reports that Kuwaiti reserves are much less than claimed are not news because they allege the Kuwaitis have been lying about their reserves. What is news is the new reported numbers for reserves. So would Hubbert linearization have given us the right answer?

Linearization of Kuwaiti oil production. Data source: American Petroleum Institute (via Jean Laherrere) and BP Statistical Review of World Energy. Click to enlarge.

Update [2006-1-21 2:25:16 by Stuart Staniford]: More graphs and a stability analysis added to the story below the fold.