Stories tagged with "original"

World Oil Capacity to Peak in 2010 Says Petrobras CEO

Mr. Gabrielli, the CEO of Petrobras, gave a presentation in December 2009 in which he shows world oil capacity, including biofuels, peaking in 2010 due to oil capacity additions from new projects being unable to offset world oil decline rates.

Gabrielli states in his presentation that the world needs oil volumes the equivalent of one Saudi Arabia every two years to offset future world oil decline rates.

This is a stronger statement than the one he gave in January 2009 in an interview with Business Week when he said the following.

According to the company's projections, production from existing fields will fall from a little over 80 million barrels a day to maybe half of that even if new techniques are used to slow their rate of decline. So just keeping global production flat is going to require lots of new fields and requires the world to replace one Saudi Arabia per three years.

Gabrielli is clearly concerned about declining future world oil production. His statements are now in alignment with those of other oil company executives including Sadad al-Husseini, former Aramco executive, who states that world oil production is on a peak plateau, and Total's CEO, Christophe de Margerie who doesn't see global oil production ever exceeding 89 million barrels per day (mbd). World oil production in December 2009 was only slightly lower at 86 mbd.

Oilwatch Monthly January 2010

The January 2010 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.24 MB, 33 pp).

Figure 1 - World Crude Oil Production January 2002 to October 2009, OECD Crude Oil Consumption January 2002 to October 2009, OECD Crude Oil Stocks January 2002 to November 2009

The Oilwatch Monthly is a newsletter that is available free of charge with the latest data on oil supply, demand, oil stocks, spare capacity and exports.

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

What Does "Peak Oil” Mean to You?

The “Don’t Fear the 2010s” article written by Nick Gillespie of the Wall Street Journal featured a section on Peak Oil and, after reading it, I found myself uttering the famous words of Homer Simpson: “Doh.” The article claims that "something always gets in the way" of peak oil, and since no clear peak has occured globally, Peak Oil is and will remain unimportant. Although early discussions about peak oil involved estimations of the actual date of the peak, today the discussion has transcended its past mathematical proclivities to include more complex (and more meaningful) issues. Let’s examine some of the more important insights to be gained from the discussion of peak oil.

Is the United Kingdom facing a natural gas shortage?

I "moved up" this post from Saturday, so the continuing British natural gas shortage could continue to be discussed, without having to look too far. - Gail

A cold spell facing the United Kingdom has caused anxiety over the security of the country's natural gas supplies. The Conservative Party warns that a gas shortage is about to hit the UK due to a lack of storage capacity. In response, National Grid, owner of the UK gas transmission system, states that there is "no danger of the UK running short of gas".

Oilwatch Monthly December 2009

The December 2009 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.24 MB, 33 pp).

Figure 1 - World Liquids Production January 2002 to November 2009

The Oilwatch Monthly is a newsletter that is available free of charge with the latest data on oil supply, demand, oil stocks, spare capacity and exports.

A summary and latest graphics below the fold.

As Refineries Close, New Stresses are Added to the System

In the past several weeks, we have seen many reports such as this:

Colonial Pipeline Limits Gasoline Supply Shipments for Cycle 70

Colonial Pipeline Co., which operates the largest pipeline linking U.S. Gulf Coast refiners and East Coast markets, will limit shipments of gasoline because orders exceed the company’s ability to deliver fuel on time.

The Alpharetta, Georgia-based company issued the requirement, known as an allocation, in a bulletin to shippers for the 70th cycle. The restriction applies to shipments on Colonial pipelines north of Collins, Mississippi.

Companies will be able to ship a pro-rated portion of their original nomination, based on their shipping history over the past year, according to Colonial.

With the assistance of Jane Van Ryan at API, I contacted to Steve Baker at Colonial Pipeline, to find out what is happening. I discovered the oversubscription seems to be related to refinery shutdowns in the Northeast.

Dubai's Debt Troubles: Beginning of the Next Leg Down?

Most of us have heard that Dubai World is asking for a six month delay in paying back its debt. The debt was supposedly backed by the Dubai government, so Standard & Poor's considers this a default of the Dubai government.


Dubai World Island, formed of manmade islands. Planned to be a residence for 12,000 people. (Dubai Travel Guide)

It is a little early to see how the Dubai situation will play out, but it seems to me that there is a significant chance that the Dubai situation will mark the beginning of the next leg down in the downward recessionary spiral and world debt unwind. Oil prices are likely to drop, so few are likely to notice that oil ultimately plays a major role in the continuing debacle.

Unique Times -- and the Future

This is a guest contribution by Dr Walter Youngquist, best known for GeoDestinies, his classic text on global resources and their depletion that was first published in 1997. I had the good fortune to meet Dr Youngquist at the ASPO conference in Houston two years ago and since then we have shared regular correspondence. Dr Youngquist (now aged 88) is updating GeoDestinies and last week he sent me this piece, seeking opinion. I always find his prose to be eloquent, simple, often understated and as a result very powerful.

I asked if we could publish this short piece on The Oil Drum and he kindly agreed. Many readers of The Oil Drum might feel that they already know much of what is written here, but you need to stop and ask how it is that we know what we know? When the new edition of GeoDestinies is published I'd warmly recommend this to Oil Drum readers as a well referenced, well written source spanning energy, soils, water, metals and population.

World Oil Production Forecast - Update November 2009

World oil production peaked in July 2008 at 74.74 million barrels/day (mbd) and now has fallen to about 72 mbd. It is expected that oil production will decline at about 2.2 mbd per year as shown below in the chart. The forecasts from the IEA WEO 2008 and 2009 are shown for comparison. The IEA 2009 forecast has dropped significantly lower than the 2008 forecast. The IEA 2009 forecast also shows a slight decline from 2009 to 2012 implying that the IEA possibly agrees that world oil peaked in July 2008.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) should make official statements about declining world oil production now to urgently increase the focus on oil conservation and alternative renewable energy sources.

Fig 1 - World Oil Production to 2012 - click to enlarge (oil includes crude oil, lease condensate and oil sands)

The Renewables Gap: The Political Challenge of Affecting a Societal Transition to Renewable Sources of Energy

Below is a summary of my presentation, The Renewables Gap, from the ASPO 2009 conference. The intent of my presentation was to highlight the political challenge of affecting a societal transition to renewable sources of energy. In particular, I focus on wind and solar, though it seems to me that the problem will be largely the same (if not worse) if we attempt to rely on other “renewables.” My initial presentation focused on attempting to illustrate the Renewables Gap as an energy problem. While I briefly addressed the political aspects of this problem in my presentation, on reflection I’ve chosen to focus more carefully on this aspect of the Renewables Gap.

Frankly, I've never been very pessimistic about our theoretical ability to adapt to peak oil. It’s what I fear we will actually do in response—or, rather, what we won’t do—that concerns me. I feel the same way about our ability to transition to alternative sources of energy—the challenge that I’ve termed the Renewables Gap. I’m quite confident that we have the theoretical ability to deal with the problem. However, if you accept that “politics” is the process of allocating scarce resources in a society, then it is the political problem posed that appears most daunting. Like many things involving peak oil, we’re sure to have all the political will that we need to deal with the problem at only some point after our window of opportunity to act has closed. The challenge is figuring out how to spread awareness of the nature of the problem and willingness to commit scarce resources to its solution before there is a crisis. Here, again, my pessimism is grounded in what I fear we will not do. I don’t pretend to offer any easy solution (the desire for which gives much insight into the nature of this very problem). My goal here is only to provide a framework for thinking about this problem: