Stories tagged with "overshoot"
A distant mirror: Ireland's great famine
Posted by Ugo Bardi on December 12, 2008 - 10:17am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Environment/Sustainability
Tags: an gorta mor, deforestation, ireland famine, m. king hubbert, overshoot, peak oil [list all tags]

In the 18th century, Ireland lost much of its forested land. This graph of wooded land for sale has been generated from data reported by Eileen Mc Cracken in "The Irish Woods since Tudor Times" (1971). The data are fitted with a derivative logistic, as for a "Hubbert" curve. The good fit indicates the over-exploitation of a slowly renewable resource.
Deforestation was not the direct cause of the Great Irish famine of mid 19th century, but it was the start of a chain of events that led to it. In this article, I show the condition of "overshoot" that Ireland was in at the time of the famine has much in common with the "overshoot" condition our world is in today.
Electric Politics: Al Bartlett says "The Die is Cast"
Posted by Prof. Goose on December 18, 2007 - 11:40pm
Topic: Environment/Sustainability
Tags: albert bartlett, carrying capacity, ecology, extinction, global warming, overpopulation, overshoot, peak energy, peak oil, population, population growth, sustainability [list all tags]
George Kenney over at Electric Politics has quite the interview with Al Bartlett. Here's a link to the .mp3 download, and here's a link to the post itself, which has an in-line player and comments. George writes:
It's an enormous conceit to think that population increases are everywhere and always a good thing. In the blessed tradition, however, of neo-classical economic theory (aka 'free markets') such is the miracle of rational choice that left to themselves people will 'optimize' the rate of population growth: no natural limit on population exists. Nevertheless, in reality the unacknowledged costs of population growth mostly shift to future generations. Call it the ultimate Ponzi scheme. And if you think about it, population growth is the main driver of all our planetary scale problems, from warming to Peak Oil to food production, right down the list. Locally as well, even to diluted democratic practices of governance. Although it makes no sense whatsoever to tackle any of these without due consideration of the population factor most of the time population doesn't get mentioned — the implications are so politically controversial. To help put population and its derivatives into perspective I turned to a man who's been sounding the alarm about sustainability for decades, Dr. Albert Allen Bartlett. It was a real privilege to talk with Al, who's as close to being a prophet as anybody can be these days. Listen, and pass the word! Total runtime an hour and sixteen minutes.
Amen, brother. (Feel free to link to other recent peak oil media in the comments as well.)
Six steps to “getting” the global ecological crisis
Posted by Prof. Goose on November 4, 2007 - 10:05am
Topic: Environment/Sustainability
Tags: albert bartlett, carrying capacity, ecology, extinction, global warming, overpopulation, overshoot, peak energy, peak oil, population, population growth, sustainability, william catton [list all tags]

This is a guest post by John Feeney, Ph.D. Trained as a psychologist, John is today an environmental writer and activist in Boulder, Colorado. He began investigating environmental issues while fighting destructive residential development in a small Iowa town where he and his family lived for two years. His research pointed inevitably to the interacting roles played by population growth, the drive for economic growth, and our reliance on fossil energy in fueling the ecological crisis we now face. His website is called Growth Is Madness.
Some of us who examine and discuss environmental matters are constantly puzzled and frustrated by the seeming inability of elected officials, environmental organizations, and environmental and political writers to “get” the nature of our ecological plight. Could it be they’re simply unaware of the ecological principles which enable one to understand it?
World Energy and Population: Trends to 2100
Posted by Stoneleigh on October 17, 2007 - 12:30pm in The Oil Drum: Canada
Topic: Environment/Sustainability
Tags: carrying capacity, energy, environment, original, overshoot, population, sustainability [list all tags]
This is a guest post by GliderGuider. It is also available on the author's own website.
Throughout history, the expansion of human population has been supported by a steady growth in our use of high-quality exosomatic energy. The operation of our present industrial civilization is wholly dependent on access to a very large amount of energy of various types. If the availability of this energy were to decline significantly it could have serious repercussions for civilization and the human population it supports.
This paper constructs production models for the various energy sources we use and projects their likely supply evolution out to the year 2100. The full energy picture that emerges is then translated into a population model based on an estimate of changing average per-capita energy consumption over the century. Finally, the impact of ecological damage is added to the model to arrive at a final population estimate.
This model, known as the "World Energy and Population" model, or WEAP, suggests that the world's population will decline significantly over the course of the century.
When Is "Global Peak Energy?" According to Publicly Available Data, Probably Sooner Than You Think
Posted by Prof. Goose on September 10, 2007 - 10:00am
Topic: Environment/Sustainability
Tags: chris clugston, overpopulation, overshoot, peak energy, peak oil, sustainability [list all tags]
This is a guest post by Chris Clugston. Chris has spent over 30 years working with information technology sector companies in marketing, sales, finance, M&A, and general management—the last twenty as a corporate chief executive and management consultant. Chris received an AB/Political Science, Magna Cum Laude and Phi Beta Kappa from Penn State University, and an MBA/Finance with High Distinction from Temple University in Philadelphia, PA.
Energy is the “enabling” resource; most, if not all other natural and manmade resources and their capacities to sustain human life are derived from or dependent upon one or more sources of primary energy. The fact that the amount of energy available to human beings is subject to a limit—global peak energy—has profound implications for future human population levels and living standards.
Given humanity’s unquestioned dependence upon energy for survival, answers to the following questions are critical to our long term success as a species:
- When and at what level will global energy “peak”?
- What are the implications of global peak energy for the world’s human population?
The following analysis represents my initial attempt to answer these questions; the primary conclusions are unsettling, but clear: Based on publicly available data, global peak energy will probably occur between the years 2025 and 2030; total available energy will decline continuously thereafter.
Peak Oil, Carrying Capacity and Overshoot: Population, the Elephant in the Room
Posted by Stoneleigh on May 7, 2007 - 9:25am in The Oil Drum: Canada
Topic: Environment/Sustainability
Tags: carrying capacity, overshoot, peak oil, population, sustainability [list all tags]
This is a guest post by GliderGuider.
At the root of all the converging crises of the World Problematique is the issue of human overpopulation. Each of the global problems we face today is the result of too many people using too much of our planet's finite, non-renewable resources and filling its waste repositories of land, water and air to overflowing. The true danger posed by our exploding population is not our absolute numbers but the inability of our environment to cope with so many of us doing what we do.
It is becoming clearer every day, as crises like global warming, water, soil and food depletion, biodiversity loss and the degradation of our oceans constantly worsen, that the human situation is not sustainable. Bringing about a sustainable balance between ourselves and the planet we depend on will require us, in very short order, to reduce our population, our level of activity, or both. One of the questions that comes up repeatedly in discussions of population is, "What level of human population is sustainable?" In this article I will give my analysis of that question, and offer a look at the human road map from our current situation to that level.
As I have mentioned elsewhere, the concepts of ecological science are the most effective tools for understanding this situation. The crucial concepts are sustainability, carrying capacity and overshoot. Considered together these can give us some clue as to what the true sustainable population of the earth might be, as well as the trajectory between our current numbers and the point of sustainability.
Burning Buried Sunshine
Posted by Dave Cohen on September 27, 2006 - 4:07pm
Topic: Environment/Sustainability
Tags: bioenergy, carbon emissions, climate change, ecological footprint, fossil fuels, jeffrey dukes, mathis wackernagel, overshoot, peat swamp forests [list all tags]
Figure 1
Sustainability requires living within the regenerative capacity of the biosphere. In an attempt to measure the extent to which humanity satisfies this requirement, we use existing data to translate human demand on the environment into the area required for the production of food and other goods, together with the absorption of wastes. Our accounts indicate that human demand may well have exceeded the biosphere's regenerative capacity since the 1980s. According to this preliminary and exploratory assessment, humanity's load corresponded to 70% of the capacity of the global biosphere in 1961, and grew to 120% in 1999.


k Nation (Jim Kunstler)






GAIA Host Collective