Stories tagged with "poll"

POLL: Can We Buildout Both Renewable Energy AND Attain Economic Growth?

We are trying to do everything.

Save the banks, save the automakers, build out a smart grid, create jobs, yet not 'be held hostage to dwindling resources'. Can this be accomplished? We need energy to do work. We need cheap energy to have growth for this many people and for those recently joining the global stage. We need growth (or at least the perception of it) to have debt in order to finance future industry, whether the industry is basic goods or more discretionary pursuits. But via receding horizons (depletion outpacing technology), energy costs will outpace energy revenues (in aggregate, declining energy surplus), and a compressed time horizon will require prioritization.



(From: Beyond Oil: the Threat to Food and Fuel in the Coming Decades; John Gever et al.; p. 225)

Though dated, the above graphic shows (green) starting early to solve the problem of transition to a world of less liquid fuel and (red) waiting until the 'market signal' (aka last moment) - the net energy available to society (due to continued energy expenditures on 'un-economic growth') passes through a period of perilous scarcity. In Matt Simmons latest presentation(pdf), he suggests the need for up to $100 trillion to upgrade the rust and aging energy delivery infrastructure - this is 2 orders of magnitude larger than the $850 billion stimulus package voted on last night, and triple the total global stock market capitalization.

Cutler Cleveland at Boston U. kindly scanned the entire 'Beyond Oil' book at the above link which is an excellent introduction to the energy choices we face -(particularly Chapter 7.)

Below the fold is a POLL on what you think is possible given our resource constraints.

Can We Buildout Renewable Energy Infrastructure and Pursue Economic Growth at Same Time?

New Year, New Price Poll

Though the model of oil prices being a valid 'signal' of long term scarcity took a hit in 2008, many of our future trajectories do hinge on higher (or lower) oil prices. Here is the 2009 Poll on where oil futures prices will close 2009. There were 6 posters who voted on a close below $50 in the 2008 Poll, but none in the public comments section (so I am not sure who they were); thus the prize of 'a date with Professor Goose' gets extended to 2009 (poor PG). In full disclosure, here was my thinking in that thread a year ago. Below the fold is a screenshot of last years poll results and some commentary. Feel free to add your own analysis, links, etc. I wonder how many in the general public would agree that July 2008 will prove to be the all time high in oil production...?

Ignoring intrayear volatility, where do you expect WTI crude oil futures to close 2009?

Oil will make new all time highs and close 2009 higher than $147
12% (72 votes)
Oil will close 2009 between $100 and $147
13% (78 votes)
Oil will close 2009 between $75 and $100
27% (161 votes)
Oil will close 2009 between $50 and $75
26% (153 votes)
Oil will close 2009 between $37.5 and $50
6% (33 votes)
Oil will close 2009 between $25 and $37.5
4% (24 votes)
Oil will close 2009 between $15 and $25
1% (6 votes)
Oil will close 2009 below $15 per barrel
1% (5 votes)
I have no freakin idea. Pick a price. Flip a coin, etc.
8% (47 votes)
Oil futures contracts won't be tradeable by year end 2009
3% (16 votes)
Total votes: 595

POLL: CLV08 blew past $100...so, in the next 60 days, the front month price of CL will...

POLL: CLV08 went through $91/bbl..so, in the next 60 days, the front month price of CL will...

hit $100 before it hits $82
33% (584 votes)
hit $82 before it hits $100
34% (586 votes)
stay in a trading range between $82 and $100
22% (382 votes)
it's still all geopolitics and other "above ground factors," so what does a price signal mean anyway?
5% (80 votes)
it's all about the varying dollar value and speculation...why bother?
7% (117 votes)
Total votes: 1749

POLL: CLV08 went through $102/bbl..so, in the next 60 days, the front month price of CL will...

hit $113 before it hits $91
35% (1050 votes)
hit $91 before it hits $113
30% (923 votes)
stay in a trading range between $91 and $113
25% (754 votes)
it's still all geopolitics and other "above ground factors," so what does a price signal mean anyway?
5% (160 votes)
it's all about the declining dollar and specs...
5% (147 votes)
Total votes: 3034

POLL: CLU08 went through $114/bbl..so, in the next 60 days, the front month price of CL will...

POLL: CLU08 went through $127/bbl today..so, in the next 60 days, the front month price of CL will...

POLL: CLQ08 went through $140/bbl today..so, in the next 60 days, the front month price of CL will...