The Oil Drum

hit $154 before it hits $126

hit $126 before it hits $154

stay in a trading range between $126 and $154

it's still all geopolitics and other "above ground factors," so what does a price signal mean anyway?

haven't you heard? it's all about the declining dollar and specs-not growing demand and a stagnant supply.

In our last poll on 16 APR (and here's the old accompanying comment thread), 42% of you predicted that CL would hit $127 in the front month before it hit $103. Yep, we've passed it today, though we closed below it. Oil has risen from $115 to $127 (~10%) in a month.

This is the comment thread for the poll, offer your conjecture and reasoning here...the actual poll itself is at this link.

In our last poll on 5 MAR (and here's the accompanying comment thread), 43% of you predicted that CL would hit $115 in the front month. We've passed it, but we haven't closed at it yet.

Either way, I thought a new poll was in order to celebrate Three Yergin Day. This is the comment thread, the poll is in the link below.

This site primarily discusses crude oil, its ubiquitous role in transportation and underlying reasons for its 9 year price climb. Less frequent but almost as important are discussions about its invisible cousin, natural gas, which fires a meaningful % of our electricity, and serves as the feedstock for plastics, fertilizer, and various other important social goods, like diapers and milk jugs. Following a dramatic price spike after Hurricane Rita, we've encountered 2 mild winters and no hurricane problems - natural gas markets have been quite docile of late. Here is a POLL and open thread to discuss natural gas prospects for 2008.

Jean Laherrere - US Natural Gas production and producing gaswells. Click to enlarge.

After reading the comments on Jason Bradford's post today "Does Less Energy Mean More Farmers", I noted, as in the past, the number of knowledgeable agricultural comments in the thread. I'm curious as to the breakdown of TOD readers and time spent growing food.

Here is a Poll and open thread on the topic...Also 2008 grains made multi year highs today Dec 08 corn closed above $4.60 a bushel. Beans at $11.

I'm having Galeux D'eysines squash tonight(yes thats really what they look like) with brown sugar, half and half and cinammon (I grew only the squash...)

There seem to be larger and larger forces impacting oil prices. A potential credit crisis, with lower monetary wealth and tighter credit would certainly reduce demand for oil. Alternatively, if global central banks combat this spectre by continually providing liquidity, this primes the inflationary pumps, which is bullish for oil. At the same time, we recently hit a new all time IEA production high (at least measured by 'gross' production). Will impetus of 2008 Chinese Olympics and other developing countries thirst for oil counterbalance an OECD recessionary impact? Will the reduction in exports from oil producing countries offset any demand destruction? Does anyone have a clue?

Cast your vote in our POLL Feel free to discuss your viewpoint and rationale below the fold, especially if it differs from one of the packaged choices....;)

Here's an new open thread and a poll for you to discuss the fact that oil went through $93/bbl today. (and if you haven't seen Drudge this evening, he has the now ubiquitous grasshopper in the sunset picture up...)

(By the way, the 45ish% of you in the old poll who said 93 before 79, you were correct.)

The five options in the new poll are, "in the next month, CLZ07/CLF08 will..."

1. hit 100 before it hits 86
2. hit 86 before it hits 100
3. stay in a trading range between 86 and 100
4. it's still all geopolitics, what does a price signal mean anyway?
5. haven't you heard? it's all about the declining dollar. it has nothing to do with growing demand and a current lack of supply.

Enjoy. :) A link to the actual poll can be found here. The discussion/comment thread for oil price and the poll choices is below.

With oil prices around $63/bbl and news of reduced demand in the DrumBeat today, it's time for another poll: where are oil prices heading in the next two months?

(here's a link to our first poll from a while back, and here's a link to the second poll, where only 2% of those responding answered prices would "reach $63/bbl before they reach $83/bbl"...). Poll under the fold.

With oil prices around $73/bbl and news of reduced demand in the DrumBeat today, it's time for another poll: where are oil prices heading in the next two months?

(here's a link to our first poll a couple of weeks ago...I shortened the time horizon a bit in this one, just to shake it up a bit.)

I found a very interesting poll by Pew yesterday, (hat tip: Payton Chung over at Gristmill) that I thought I should bring you.

Pew was doing a piece on the impacts of An Inconvenient Truth on the global warming attitudes--a major focus of the poll, but there's some things to chew on in there regarding energy policy attitudes as well. I discuss some of the findings and implications under the fold.