Stories tagged with "production decline"

The Global Energy Crisis and its Role in the Pending Collapse of the Global Economy

Posted by Euan Mearns on November 3, 2008 - 10:25am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Policy/Politics
Tags: bio fuel, ccs, climate change, credit, deflation, einstein, energy efficiency, energy poverty, eroei, gdp, hydrogen, inflation, ipcc, lia, olduvai, opec, original, production decline, united kingdom [list all tags]


When my talk to the Royal Society of Chemists was first arranged this summer, oil cost over $130 per barrel, and we wondered where the price would be in October. Since then much has happened. The credit expansion bubble was pricked in part by inflation stemming from high energy prices, and the global banking system is teetering on the brink of collapse, reprieved only by the spread of social ownership throughout the OECD.

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Ghawar reserves update and revisions (1)

Posted by Euan Mearns on May 2, 2007 - 11:13am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: aramco, ghawar, matthew simmons, production decline, reserves, saudi arabia [list all tags]

In this revisions post I want to update my views on Ghawar reserves incorporating 4 main changes:

1. A model base assumption error in the way initial reserves in Uthmaniyah were calculated is corrected.

2. The data vintage for the Linux oil saturation map has been revised to 2002 (from 2004).

3. 2002 based figures are re-based to 2006 by adjusting for 4 years production at 5 million barrles per day.

4. The production prognosis for Hawiyah has been revised down.

These adjustments result in the initial whole field reserves figure rising to 173 billion barrels and show the field in a more severly depleted state in 2006 than previously shown.

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GHAWAR: an estimate of remaining oil reserves and production decline (Part 2 - results)

Posted by Euan Mearns on April 27, 2007 - 11:59am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: aramco, ghawar, matthew simmons, production decline, reserves, saudi arabia [list all tags]

Two volumetric simulations (2D) of the initial and remaining reserves in Ghawar, the world’s largest producing oil field, have been determined. The High Case scenario uses somewhat more optimistic assumptions than the Base Case scenario. Background and methodology are described in detail here.

Estimate of initial oil in place = 162 billion barrels (same for High and Base cases)

High Case
Produced oil = 63 billion barrels
2004 reserves = 43 billion barrels
60% depleted

Base Case
Produced oil = 55 billion barrels
2004 reserves = 34 billion barrels
62% depleted

The Base Case production model shows Ghawar on the edge of irreversible production decline that may start around 2010 or it may already have started. The High Case production model is more robust and shows plateau production maintained until around 2013.

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GHAWAR: an estimate of remaining oil reserves and production decline (Part 1 - background and methodology)

Posted by Euan Mearns on April 25, 2007 - 7:50pm in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: aramco, ghawar, matthew simmons, production decline, reserves, saudi arabia [list all tags]

A two dimensional (2D) volumetric reservoir model has been developed for the Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia which is the world’s largest field producing over 5 million barrels of oil per day. This represents 6% of global oil supplies. Understanding the current status of this super giant is central to the peak oil debate and to understanding the security of future global energy supplies.

This article was too large for a single post and has been split in two. Part 2 - "The Results" will follow very shortly.

Stuart Staniford has been working independently on the same problem and will post his results next week.

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