The Oil Drum

Make sure to check out our Grangemouth/Forties poll--use this thread as the comment thread for it.

Latest:
• Grangemouth oil refinery is shutdown.
• The Forties Pipeline is shutdown
• Over 60 North Sea oil and gas fields are shutdown.
• About 700,000 bpd oil production lost costing £40 million / day @ $110 per barrel
• About 70 million cubic meters natural gas production lost per day costing £42 million / day @ 60 p / therm
• BP, Shell, Exxon-Mobil, BG Group, Conoco-Philips, Chevron-Texaco, Total, Marathon, Tallisman, Nexen, Venture, Dana and many more companies affected
• Global energy prices rise
• Rural Scottish economy hit hardest by fuel shortages
• Risk level is raised throughout the system
• Worker's grievance is unresolved
• Population calm, politicians panic, fuel rationing looms?

[update 5 by Euan, 23 April]

Latest from the BBC (Wednesday evening)

BBC Scotland understands operators Ineos and the Unite union have failed to agree a halt to an impending strike by workers at the Grangemouth plant.

It therefore looks like Ineos will have to proceed with closing the plant which they say will take 4 weeks to restart. We'll be back with a fresh thread in a couple of hours.

[update 4 by Euan, 23 April]

Latest from the BBC (Wednesday pm) with a fine video:

As the hours tick by the likelihood of widespread disruption looks increasingly likely

In this article, I provide Peak Oil science curriculum suitable for introductory college science classes, advanced high school classes, and adult seminars. The material requires a little background in high school chemistry, but otherwise does not have any pre-requisites. There is sufficient material for a two to four session unit on peak oil.

The written material is divided into Part 1: The Science of Oil and Peak Oil (in this article) and Part 2: Oil as a Liquid Fuel and Expected Peak Oil Impacts (found at this link). There are also discussion questions at the end of Parts 1 and 2, and numerous links to other references. A PDF version which contains both Part 1 and Part 2 can be found at this link.

Last week, I posted an earlier version of proposed peak oil curriculum. Many of the comments related to things I had left out or hadn't explained adequately. After considering the comments, I decided that folks were right, and added some more material. Since the post was already fairly long, I broke it into two parts. I also reorganized sections to make a more logical flow. The earlier version can be found at this link.

The current version incorporates changes based both on comments to this post, and on comments to the previous post. On a rapidly changing topic such as peak oil, there is no real consensus on some issues. I have tried to pick a reasonable interpretation. If readers have questions or comments, I can be reached at gailtverberg (at) comcast (dot) net.

Please Note: Based on feedback from readers, a revised version of this post has been prepared in two separate posts. See Part 1 and Part 2.

A university near where I live plans to add a short unit on "Petroleum and Peak Oil" to their Science 1101 course for freshman who are not science majors. They asked me to put together material for the unit - reading material, PowerPoint presentations, links to additional material, discussion questions, and suggested test questions. At this point, I am in the process of finalizing what will go into the reading material. I sent my contact a first draft, and he asked that I add sections on a number of other topics as well. This is my second draft, which includes the additional sections requested. I have not yet turned it in.

The focus is to a significant extent their choice. They wanted background information on a variety of petroleum-related topics, and not too much focus on precisely when peak oil would occur, or what dire results might happen. They recognize that corn ethanol is a very bad idea. The audience is expected to be 19 to 23 year olds, so the material needs to be suitable for this age group.

The university wants me to develop material others can use as well, so is willing to let me share what I develop with others. Thus, I don't see any problem with sharing this draft here. At this point, I can still make changes.

I would appreciate any input or comments TOD folks might have.

As you may have noticed President Bush commented this past week on his (and apparently their) doubts that Saudi Arabia could significantly increase crude oil production. While this comes as no great surprise to those of you that have been reading Stuart and Euan’s excellent articles, I thought I would try and summarize the situation as I see it, and expand a little beyond the short summary paragraphs that Leanan is providing, to give more of an overall picture.

To begin you should know that when the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) talks about the size of their oilfields, they refer to the amount of oil that was there at the beginning, rather than that which is left. You can do this calculation for yourself, but I exemplified it with a small calculation on the amount of oil that originally existed in the Abqaiq field , by making some simple assumptions.

One of the things I really like about The Oil Drum is that I learn something new here almost every day. So, I thought I would return the favor by explaining in a bit more detail something you may not know.

Every year in late summer, you will start hearing references in the media about the conversion to winter gasoline, such as the following (originally in the Bradenton Herald, but the link is long dead):

Motorists can thank a mild hurricane season in the Atlantic for the lower gas prices, according to the American Automobile Association.

Other factors include the end of the summer driving season and a cheaper winter fuel mix.

Gas stations sell a special, more expensive fuel blend during the summer to cut down on smog during hot months. Stations nationwide will start selling a less-expensive winter fuel blend Friday, which could lead to even lower prices, analysts said.

So what does this mean, and why does it make winter gasoline less expensive?

Drilling jobs scene bleak

Thousands of rig hands in Western Canada are waiting for callbacks from their drilling-company employers, but industry observers say the high Canadian dollar and a crash in the royalty trust and junior part of the oilpatch mean they could be idle for a long time.

While the drilling industry, which for years worked to build up its labour pool, is reluctant to talk in terms of outright layoffs because of the seasonal nature of its work, it's expected there will be almost 3,500 fewer roughneck positions this summer relative to last year, as the number of active rigs drops to 376, from 512 in 2006.

Green election talk heats up

The Conservative government has drawn an election battle line after opposition parties massively overhauled its Clean Air Act.

A special Commons committee that finished studying the act yesterday included a provision to punish industrial polluters with heavy fines, and Tory MP Mark Warawa said that could lead to "billions of dollars of new taxes."

The House of Commons adjourns today for a two-week Easter break, and when it returns a vote on the bill amended by the committee dominated by opposition party MPs could spark an election. There is speculation that an election could be called in mid-April for either May 28 or June 4.

Oil and gas trusts to lose up to $2-billion in value: report

Canadian oil and gas trusts will lose up to $2-billion in net present value over the life of their assets because of the federal government's tax changes to trusts, a Scottish consultancy said in a report released Friday.

Anger, relief over tax move

Ottawa's decision to start taxing income trusts has opened up a sharp fault line in the executive suites of Corporate Canada.

The ruling has emerged as a divisive issue, pitting those who run trusts against those in non-trust businesses, according to a new survey of top executives.

The quarterly survey of 175 chief executive officers, chief financial officers and chief operating officers shows a dramatic split among those who back Ottawa's move and those who dislike it. The quarterly C-Suite survey was conducted by the Gandalf Group for Report on Business and ROB-TV.

About 58 per cent of those surveyed support or strongly support the decision, while 40 per cent oppose or strongly oppose it.

One of the things I really like about The Oil Drum is that I learn something new here almost every day. So, I thought I would return the favor by explaining in a bit more detail something you may not know.

Every year in late summer, you will start hearing references in the media about the conversion to winter gasoline, such as the following (originally in the Bradenton Herald, but the link is long dead):

Motorists can thank a mild hurricane season in the Atlantic for the lower gas prices, according to the American Automobile Association.

Other factors include the end of the summer driving season and a cheaper winter fuel mix.

Gas stations sell a special, more expensive fuel blend during the summer to cut down on smog during hot months. Stations nationwide will start selling a less-expensive winter fuel blend Friday, which could lead to even lower prices, analysts said.

So what does this mean, and why does it make winter gasoline less expensive?