How can you double something and still have ten times less than you started with?

There has been some discussion about how to apply the Hubbert Linearization (HL) to Saudi historical production in recent weeks at TOD. Trying not to fall into redundancy, let me have some loose thoughts on these models:

Three alternative Logistic models for Saudi production. Click for large version.

In his recent post, Ace assumes ultimate recoverable reserves (URR) in Saudi Arabia to be 175 Gb (billion barrels). With 112 Gb already produced, that leaves only 63 Gb remaining. Colin Campbell (the founder of ASPO) has estimated total reserves for Saudi Arabia of 275 Gb (news letter 66), believed to be C+C+NGL (crude oil + condensate + natural gas liquids). There is an enormous discrepancy between this and Ace's analysis that ought to be explained.

This post is a brief summary of my views on Saudi reserves and production. My conclusion is that Saudi Arabia likely has at least 120 Gbs of remaining reserves (C+C+NGL) for a URR in excess of 240 Gbs (C+C+NGL). The remaining reserves according to this analysis are almost double those reported by Ace.

As oil threatens to go through the roof over concerns that OPEC may not open the spigots, exploiting Canadian reserves is becoming far more expensive. The threat of labour disruption in the oil sands will only add to the problem.

An OPEC equivalent controlling future LNG trade is seen as a threat to US security, even as natural gas prices decline and the drilling sector consolidates in Canada.

Burnaby BC comes to terms with a long clean up after an oil spill, as the aftermath of a Japanese earthquake rattles the nuclear industry, and Ontario's nuclear troubles continue.

Risk aversion goes international as credit markets tighten around the world. Faced with threatened deals, banks are holding on to loans rather than hawking them to investors. The US sends another more senior figure to China to convince them to buy mortgage-backed securities. As bridge loans become pier loans in the developing credit crunch, Wall Street 'heads for the diaper aisle'.

Oil firms find reserves elusive

For investors looking for the cheapest reserve replacement costs, don't turn to Canada. Not only is the country's oil and gas basin particularly well-developed, making new reserves hard to find, but also Alberta's oil sands boom has driven up service costs above and beyond the increase seen globally. Canada's senior producers' reserve replacement costs went up 40 per cent from 2005 to 2006, while the country's energy trusts and juniors saw costs increase year over year by 62 per cent and 37 per cent, respectively, according to the report.

"The unrelenting rise in reserve replacement costs, coupled with cost pressures elsewhere, has significantly eroded the profitability of crude oil and natural gas developments, especially in high-cost regions such as Western Canada," Mr. Ollenberger said.