Stories tagged with "richard duncan"

Encircling the peak of world oil production - an evaluation

Posted by Euan Mearns on July 6, 2009 - 10:02am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: encircling the peak, forecast, peak oil, richard duncan, walter yougquist [list all tags]


In a recent post Nate brought to our attention the work of Richard Duncan and Walter Youngquist published in 1999 in a paper called Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production. In 2007 I performed a simple analysis of the reliability of their forecasts for 26 countries (out of 42 country forecasts that were published) that were checked against what had actually come to pass as documented in the BP statistical review of world energy. The results are shown above. The sum of the differences is -7 years which on average is -0.3 years per country.

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Olduvai Theory: Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standard of Living - Richard Duncan

Posted by Nate Hagens on July 4, 2009 - 8:37am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: geodestinies, olduvai, richard duncan, walter youngquist [list all tags]

[Editor's Note: Some have noted that this article was first published by a controversial organization with some issue stances that we--to a person--do not adhere to; TOD protocol for guest essays is to include the original source of the piece. It was not my/our intent to direct people to the site or to endorse its content, just like we don't endorse any other site's content or any particular world view. Let's focus the discussion on the essay itself; and debate it on its own merits please.]

This is a guest posting of Richard Duncan's latest "Olduvai" update, which is an essay that explores energy use and population and as with previous updates arrives at some rather grim conclusions.

On a side note, the paper Richard Duncan wrote with Walter Youngquist in 1999 (when oil prices were in $10-$15 range and stock markets were at all time highs) predicting a 2007 world oil peak was not only prescient and ahead of its time using oil forecasting heuristics, but was part of the core readings from 2003 that caused me to leave the Wall St path to study resource depletion full time.

(I encourage those who have not done so to read it: Encircling the Peak of World Oil Production).

Figure 5. Toward Re-Equalizing the World Standards of Living

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World Oil Exports [02] Libya

Posted by Luis de Sousa on September 18, 2008 - 10:10am in The Oil Drum: Europe
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: colin campbell, exports, jean laherrère, libya, muammar al-gaddafi, oil exports, original, richard duncan, walter youngquist, woe, world oil exports [list all tags]



Where are Libya's oil exports headed?

Libya is a relatively new country, having declared independence in 1951. For the last 39 years, the country has been ruled by a single man, Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi. Over the years, the identity of this leader and his exquisite sense of style have mingled with the identity of the country itself.

Libya joined OPEC right after its creation, and played a pivotal role in the 1973 oil crisis. For the next three decades, Libya endured tense (and sometimes belligerent) relations with western countries. In recent years, as international oil prices have been rising, Libya has been able to re-institute itself as a reliable partner to the West, taking full advantage of the wealth promised by its still considerable oil resources.

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