Stories tagged with "rig"

UPDATED: Cantarell and Questions Regarding Mexico's Oil Infrastructure

Posted by Sam Foucher on August 21, 2007 - 8:00am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: cantarell, google earth, hurricane dean, kmz, mexico, oil, oil prices, oil rig, peak oil, pipelines, refining, rig, shipping [list all tags]

Scroll down for the 5:00p and 11:50p EDT updates.

Hurricane Dean became a Category 5 storm last night with winds reaching 165 mph and reaching a low pressure of 909 mb (as of 2:15a EDT; Katrina was 920 mb and Camille 909 mb). Landfall occurred early yesterday morning with a second landfall occurring some time today. This is an historic hurricane by any standard.

Why this matters: If there were Cat2 winds in that area, we could have been talking about around 2.5 million barrels per day of Mexico's supply capacity being shut in for a while, and some of that shut in for an extended amount of time. Around 1.5 mbpd of that capacity is exported to the US (of the 20.5 mbpd the US uses, and the 85mbpd the world uses, each day). There are also some questions about the resilience of refineries and flow lines in the area of the second landfall.

Update (Khebab, 11:50 EDT):

HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 35A
...DEAN IS MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH...32KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...DEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING DEAN. SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

 HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...


Cantarell and KMZ oil complex, 50-knots wind speed probabilities (NHC, forecast #35). Click to Enlarge.


Refinery position, 50-knots wind speed probabilities (NHC, forecast #35). Click to Enlarge.

More under the fold.

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Saudi Arabian oil declines 8% in 2006

Posted by Stuart Staniford on March 2, 2007 - 11:10am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: eia, iea, joint oil data initiative, peak oil, rig, rig count, saudi arabia [list all tags]

Saudi Arabian oil production, Jan 2006-Jan 2007, from four different sources. Linear trends fitted to each series. Graph is not zero-scaled to better show changes. Click to enlarge. Source: US EIA International Petroleum Monthly Table 1.1, IEA Oil Market Report Table 3, Joint Oil Data Initiative, OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, Table 17 (or similar) on OPEC Supply.

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Remember Where the Offshore Rigs Are and What They Can Take?

Posted by Prof. Goose on August 26, 2006 - 11:42am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: gulf of mexico, hurricane katrina, hurricane rita, oil prices, oil rig, peak oil, rig, tropical storm ernesto [list all tags]



This is the GSF High Island III, damaged last year.

Under the fold is a discussion we had last year with our friends at KAC/UCF (a site we'll probably be seeing a lot of if trends continue--and here is a link to their "Hurricane Impacts on Gulf of Mexico Oil Production" (.pdf warning)). The discussion was regarding the structural standards to which offshore rigs are built and their wind tolerances...interesting stuff.

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From an Insider: Rig Prices, Rig Depth, and How to Get a Job

Posted by Prof. Goose on March 31, 2006 - 1:54am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: deepwater, gulf of mexico, mexico, oil, oil prices, oil rig, oil services, peak oil, pemex, rig, rig count, texas [list all tags]

One of our oil industry insiders has sent us some interesting data on rig rates, well type/depth changes, and more on the oil situation in the GOM, as well as how the industry in Texas and the GOM is staffing its rigs.  Lots of interesting stuff under the fold.
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Anyone for insurance?

Posted by Heading Out on March 14, 2006 - 8:03pm
Topic: Economics/Finance
Tags: fires, hurricanes, insurance, oil storm, rig, tornadoes [list all tags]

The stormy weather is coming early this year, and there has been very heavy damage across the MidWest from tornadoes that seem to have arrived a couple of months earlier than are normally expected.

With the high costs that arose last year from the impact of the hurricanes, and the other unseasonable weather impacts on the country, such as the current fires in Texas and Oklahoma brought about by the drought, the insurance industry has been starting to take a look at the levels of risk that it is now getting into.

Last year, based on info that came from the industry we posted about some of the problems that companies engaged in drilling in the GOMEX were starting to encounter in insuring their rigs. All of a sudden the condition of the rig and the level of storm that it could withstand was being considered against the likelihood of it encountering a storm of that or greater magnitude. The insurers were asking, at that time, for assurances that rigs could withstand the storms, in the form of models that would validate the design strengths that were being proposed.

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Playing detective with Saudi production numbers

Posted by Heading Out on December 15, 2005 - 11:42pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: crude oil, production, rig, saudi arabia [list all tags]

There was a question the other day about the number of wells being drilled in the Middle East, and the chances of being able to cross-correlate well performance.  Unfortunately, given the sparseness of data this is not that easy. But as numbers change, it is a topic that appears at odd intervals here.

Let me point you in the direction of where some of the numbers can be found since this is one of those detective games that can get quite engrossing. I first ran into this topic reading Matt Simmons article on Giant Oilfields (It is a pdf given on Jan 9, 2002). He gave a table on the relative productivity of wells in different countries.

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From One of Our Insiders: Some Thoughts and Data about Prices and Exploration

Posted by Prof. Goose on November 1, 2005 - 4:01pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: hurricane katrina, hurricane rita, jackup, oil, peak oil, production, rig [list all tags]

I know the argument is consistently made that higher prices ALWAYS bring on increased exploration.  It is also argued that higher prices make things more economical.
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No, really?

Posted by Prof. Goose on October 4, 2005 - 5:22pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: hurricane katrina, hurricane rita, natural gas, oil, peak oil, rig [list all tags]

http://www.breitbart.com/news/2005/10/04/051004193044.krohifb6.html

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita destroyed 109 oil platforms and five drilling rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, but only a small portion of production will be lost for good, the US government said.

Rita accounted for most of the damage in a region that ordinarily produces nearly one-third of US crude oil imports, Interior Secretary Gale Norton said in presenting a preliminary assessment report.

Oh, and here's the MMS numbers for the day.
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More on Rig Damage and Structural Integrity

Posted by Prof. Goose on September 30, 2005 - 12:18pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: damage, oil, peak oil, rig, rig damage [list all tags]

First below the fold, a couple of pictures of damaged rigs and some words from one of our insiders. Then, a really interesting note from our friends over at KAC/UCF.  Pretty long, but also pretty interesting...goes a long way in explaining why their models are so good.
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