The Oil Drum

Saudi Arabian oil production, Jan 2006-Jan 2007, from four different sources. Linear trends fitted to each series. Graph is not zero-scaled to better show changes. Click to enlarge. Source: US EIA International Petroleum Monthly Table 1.1, IEA Oil Market Report Table 3, Joint Oil Data Initiative, OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, Table 17 (or similar) on OPEC Supply.

I recently attended the ASPO-USA World Oil Conference: Time for Action - A Midnight Ride for Peak Oil in Boston, MA. Interestingly, the conference organizers appended the acronym ASPO, to represent the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas for this gathering. Indeed, much more time was spent discussing the North American natural gas problem than at any prior Peak Oil conference I am aware of. Prominent among the presenters addressing this situation was David Hughes of NRCan. Mr Hughes is a senior geoscientist with the Geological Survey of Canada who has been speaking widely on global and North American energy sustainability issues over the past few years to governmental agencies, industry forums and the popular press. He painted a sobering picture of North American Natural Gas Supply - in effect we are trying harder and harder and spending more energy and dollars just to maintain flat production. This post is essentially a summary of David Hughes ASPO NG presentation (he also gave a talk on the Oil Sands) with some added comments and perspective.

North American natural gas producers are likely in Georges shoes...

Over the course of this past week I happened to be at lunch with a senior state official who is closely involved in the development of alternate sources of energy for the state. As we discussed some of the current fluctuations in the market, and their impact on upcoming decisions by the state on investment, the current drop in oil price brought back, to both of us, memories of the `80's. Back in those days industry and the Federal Government were investing heavily in alternate sources of energy. And then the taps were opened in KSA and the price of oil dropped, and all those programs stopped. The investments were written off.

So here we are, with the world beginning, yet again, major investments in alternate sources of energy, and the official was becoming nervous that we are about to see history repeat itself. The concern is sufficient that a significant state investment is being postponed a year to see how the events of the next few months play out. Are we again going to see companies lose large amounts of money chasing technologies that will no longer be needed ? While I argued against such a decision, the nervousness and resulting caution is not restricted to one state official. I commented earlier in the week about the concerns I have heard from those in the oil industry, about the possible drop in prices. They've been here before, and barely survived the last drop and so are much more cautious this time.

Average daily oil + condensate production for all 11 OPEC countries, by month, from EIA, together with Baker-Hughes oil rig count. January 2000-Mar 2006. Rig counts exclude Libya and Iraq for missing data, and the last three points hold Iranian rig counts at the December 2005 value, as the data are missing. Click to enlarge. Source: EIA International Petroleum Monthly Table 1.1a and Baker-Hughes.

One of our oil industry insiders has sent us some interesting data on rig rates, well type/depth changes, and more on the oil situation in the GOM, as well as how the industry in Texas and the GOM is staffing its rigs.  Lots of interesting stuff under the fold.

The current intermediate-term answer to the coming shortage of fuel oil in both the U.S. and Canada seems to be increasingly tied to the production of greater amounts of oil from the oil sands of Canada ( from the CIBC January report - a pdf file).

Natural gas is an important part of the way these resources are being developed, and until now that has not been much of an immediate concern. However, just as we have seen growing worries about the chances of gas being able to keep up with demand in the U.S., so now there is a warning from Ziff Energy via Dow Jones (and Schlumberger) of a growing problem with Western Canadian natural gas supply. As with many regions of the continent, current fields are running out and new ones are getting harder to find. Further the fields that are being found are smaller, so greater numbers of wells are being needed to produce them, and , as with the US, they are then running out faster.

Sigh! It appears that the appearance of agreement between Russia and Ukraine is still just that, with final details of exactly for how long, and at what gas price remaining to be finally defined.  The Moscow Times carries a quote from the Ukrainian Foreign Minister

"Everything is extremely unpredictable," former Ukrainian First Deputy Foreign Minister Olexander Chaliy said by telephone from Kiev. "This is leading to huge uncertainty. This is all very bad for Ukraine." Chaliy coordinated talks with Russia on gas issues from 1998 to 2004.

It appears that this may note bode well for the current government.

"This is a big problem for Yushchenko," said Peter Bobrinsky, head of equity sales at Kiev-based investment bank Concorde Capital. "When you swim with the sharks and you start bleeding, you're in trouble."

Part of the problem appears to be that the initial agreement was achievable because Ukraine gets some gas from Russia and some from Turkmenistan.  At the time the Ukrainians agreed to pay a higher price for the Russian gas, but, by blending this with gas from Turkmenistan, which retained a cheaper price, the overall increase could be kept to an acceptable level.  Unfortunately the Turkmenistan government would now like to be paid at the going rate also. The fact that Ukraine has also increased its take by 70 million cubic meters to cope with the cold, which the Russians must allow since otherwise their customers in Western Europe would feel the pinch again,  does not make the negotiations any more friendly.