This is a guest post from Will Stewart. Will is a systems engineer in the DC area and previously has written several guest posts on The Oil Drum, including a series on Passive Solar Design.

As oil production falls and volatile oil prices in concert with a struggling economy induce a pattern of demand suppression/destruction, mobility choices will narrow and Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) will decline. What should governments at all levels be proactively preparing for? What should individuals and their families be preparing for in advance? The choices are broad: at a high level, land use planners could refine cities into a series of compact, carfree urban districts interconnected with mass transit. For the existing built-out suburban and exurban communities, however, such choices are limited. Aside from telecommuting, transportation choices will increasingly include biking, carpooling/vanpooling, bus rapid transit, and other efficient means of transportation. Travel between cities and countries will also undergo a transformation, with air travel becoming less and less affordable.

This series will cover current and projected land-based vehicle energy efficiency and a high level overview of the factors that determine it, such as aerodynamic drag, weight, efficiency of motive force (e.g., engine, motor), rolling resistance, driver behavior, drivetrain losses, parasitic losses, environmental factors, Passenger Miles Traveled (PMT), etc. In this first article of the series, we will focus on energy losses associated with aerodynamic drag losses, or more succinctly, “drag”.

Tri Sled Avatar, a velomobile	Bus rapid transit in Cleveland