Stories tagged with "Robelius"

Peak Oil Update - July 2009: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers

Posted by Sam Foucher on July 7, 2009 - 10:05am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: ali morteza samsam bakhtiari, bp, chris skrebowski, eia, logistic, loglets, m. king hubbert, oil, original, rembrandt koppelaar, robelius, update [list all tags]

An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts. 

World oil production (EIA Monthly) and various forecasts (2001-2027)
World oil production (EIA Monthly) for crude oil + NGL. The median forecast is calculated from 15 models that are predicting a peak before 2020 (Bakhtiari, Smith, Staniford, Loglets, Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45], Robelius Low/High, HSM,Duncan&Youngquist). 95% of the predictions  sees a production peak between 2008 and 2010 at 77.5 - 85.0 mbpd (The 95% forecast variability area in yellow is computed using a bootstrap technique). The magenta area is the 95% confidence interval for the population-based model. Click to Enlarge. 

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Peak Oil Update - August 2008: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers

Posted by Sam Foucher on September 13, 2008 - 8:00pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: ali morteza samsam bakhtiari, bp, chris skrebowski, eia, logistic, loglets, m. king hubbert, oil, original, rembrandt koppelaar, robelius, update [list all tags]

An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts. 

World oil production (EIA Monthly) and various forecasts (2001-2027)
World oil production (EIA Monthly) for crude oil + NGL. The median forecast is calculated from 14 models that are predicting a peak before 2020 (Bakhtiari, Smith, Staniford, Loglets, Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45], Robelius Low/High, HSM). 95% of the predictions  sees a production peak between 2008 and 2010 at 77.5 - 85.0 mbpd (The 95% forecast variability area in yellow is computed using a bootstrap technique). Click to Enlarge. 

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Peak Oil Update - December 2007: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers

Posted by Sam Foucher on December 29, 2007 - 1:00pm
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: ali morteza samsam bakhtiari, bp, chris skrebowski, eia, logistic, loglets, m. king hubbert, oil, rembrandt koppelaar, robelius, update [list all tags]

An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts. This post is dedicated to the memory of Dr. Ali Morteza Samsam Bakhtiari who passed away last October.

World oil production (EIA Monthly) and various forecasts (2001-2027)
World oil production (EIA Monthly) for crude oil + NGL. The median forecast is calculated from 13 models that are predicting a peak before 2020 (Bakhtiari, Smith, Staniford, Loglets, Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45], Robelius Low/High, HSM). 95% of the predictions  sees a production peak between 2008 and 2010 at 77.5 - 85.0 mbpd (The 95% confidence interval is computed using a bootstrap technique). Click to Enlarge. 

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Peak Oil Update - September 2007: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers

Posted by Sam Foucher on September 22, 2007 - 10:15am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: ali morteza samsam bakhtiari, bp, chris skrebowski, eia, logistic, loglets, m. king hubbert, oil, rembrandt koppelaar, robelius, update [list all tags]

An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts.

World oil production (EIA Monthly) and various forecasts (2001-2027)
World oil production (EIA Monthly) for crude oil + NGL. The median forecast is calculated from 13 models that are predicting a peak before 2020 (Bakhiarti, Smith, Staniford, Loglets, Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45], Robelius Low/High, HSM). 95% of the predictions  sees a production peak between 2008 and 2010 at 77.5 - 85.0 mbpd (The 95% confidence interval is computed using a bootstrap technique). Click to Enlarge. 

Executive Summary:

  1. Broad revision (from 1980 to 2004) by the EIA this month but not significant in amplitude.
  2. Monthly production peaks are unchanged: 
    1. All Liquids: the peak is still July 2006 at 85.54 mbpd (up 0.11 mbpd), the year to date average production in 2007 (6 months) is  84.28 mbpd (up 0.02 mbpd), down 0.07 mbpd from 2006 for the same period.
    2. Crude Oil + NGL: the peak date remains May 2005 at 82.09 mbpd (up 0.01 mbpd), the year to date average production for 2007 (6 months) is  81.20 mbpd (down 0.04 mbpd), down 0.06 mbpd from 2006.
    3. Crude Oil + Condensate: the peak date remains May 2005 at 74.30 mbpd (up 0.15 mbpd), the year to date average production for 2007 (6 months) is 73.23 mbpd (up 0.14 mbpd), down 0.25 mbpd from 2006.
    4. NGPL: the peak date is still February 2007 at 8.03 mbpd (down 0.21 mbpd), the year to date average production for 2007 (6 months) is  7.97 mbpd (down 0.18 mbpd), up 0.19 mbpd from 2006.
  3. Decline in crude oil + condensate continues: June 2007 estimate for crude oil + condensate is 72.82 mbpd compared to 73.11 mbpd one year ago and 73.92 mbpd two years ago.
  4. Average forecast: the average forecast for crude oil + NGL based on 13 different projections (Figure above)  is showing a kind of production plateau around 81 +/- 4 mbpd with a decline after 2010 +/- 1 year.
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Peak Oil Update - June 2007: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers

Posted by Sam Foucher on June 14, 2007 - 11:53am
Topic: Supply/Production
Tags: ali morteza samsam bakhtiari, bp, chris skrebowski, eia, logistic, loglets, m. king hubbert, oil, rembrandt koppelaar, robelius, update [list all tags]

Slashdot Slashdot It!

An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts.

World oil production (EIA Monthly) and various forecasts (2001-2027)
World oil production (EIA Monthly) for crude oil + NGL. The median forecast is calculated from 12 models that are predicting a peak before 2020 (Bakhiarti, Smith, Staniford, Loglets, Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45], Robelius Low/High, HSM). 95% of the predictions  sees a production peak between 2009 and 2011 at 78.23 - 87.12 mbpd (The 95% confidence interval is computed using a bootstrap technique). Click to Enlarge. 

Executive Summary:

  1. Monthly production records are unchanged except for NGPL: 
    1. All Liquids: the peak is still July 2006 at 85.43 mbpd, the year to date average production in 2007 (2 months) is  84.26 mbpd, up 0.2 mbpd from 2006.
    2. Crude Oil + NGL: the peak date remains May 2005 at 82.08 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2007 (2 months) is  81.24 mbpd, down 0.06 mbpd from 2006.
    3. Crude Oil + Condensate: the peak date remains May 2005 at 74.15 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2007 (2 months) is 73.09 mbpd, down 0.25 mbpd from 2006.
    4. NGPL: the peak date is now February 2007 at 8.24 mbpd, the year to date average production for 2007 (2 months) is  8.15 mbpd, up 0.19 mbpd from 2006.
  2. Decline in crude oil + condensate continues: February 2007 estimate for crude oil + condensate is 73.35 mbpd compared to 73.47 mbpd one year ago.
  3. New forecasts added: Projections from Frederik Robelius and the Hybrid Shock Model.
  4. Average forecast: the average forecast for crude oil + NGL based on 12 different projections is showing a kind of production plateau around 83 +/- 4 mbpd with a decline after 2010 +/- 1 year.
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