The Oil Drum

[Update by Dave Cohen on 08/28/06 at 4:04 PM EDT] Ken Chew of IHS Energy contacted me and told me in part the origin of the 175 Gb number cited below with regard to Esser's testimony. It is not the tar sands. When I know more details, I will revise the text of this article.

[editor's note, by Dave Cohen] This is Part 1 of what I hope will be a 2 part series. The second installment is tentatively titled Getting to Know Daniel Yergin. Enjoy and remember what's at stake.

Yet another recent CERA press release World Oil & Liquids Production Capacity to Grow Significantly through At Least 2015 denies that peak oil is a concern.

Based on the report's extensive field-by-field analysis, [Peter] Jackson and [Robert] Esser conclude that the data reinforce CERA's view that the specter of "peak oil" is not imminent, nor is the start of an "undulating plateau" pattern of supply capacity.

This latest cornucopian summary has been commented upon here at TOD and criticized directly by Kjell Aleklett, President of ASPO in CERA's report is over-optimistic courtesy of the Energy Bulletin.

This story's aim is to investigate the CERA method, provide background for these latest statements and round out Aleklett's critique. The view here is that CERA, which is wholly owned by IHS Energy, is misleading the public and our elected representatives. These two organizations are managing perceptions as they cast aspersions on the peak oil view of reality and present misleading or incomplete analysis to the media.

These half-truths have gone on long enough. A bit more in-depth analysis is required to reveal this charade for what it is. Our future energy need is put in ever greater jeopardy the longer the world waits to mitigate the crisis. One step toward changing perceptions to create a call to action is to refute deceptions, whether they are intentional or not.