Stories tagged with "Russian natural gas production"

Is Europe Running Low on Natural Gas?

Recently, Rune Likvern wrote a post talking about the possibility of a natural gas shortage in the United Kingdom, possibly as soon as February or March 2009. Rune isn't the only one worried about the supply of gas in Europe and the UK. A little over a year ago, Euan Mearns wrote two posts about the European natural gas supply, the first called European Natural Gas and a follow-up addendum called Daddy, will the lights be on at Christmas? In this post, we combine the two posts and re-run them. Besides being relevant to the gas shortage issue, the posts also provide some additional background related to current Russian/Ukrainian dispute.

OECD European gas production looks set to peak in 2008. After that, falling production combined with rising demand will see OECD European gas imports wanting to rise from current 197 BCM per annum to 442 BCM per annum by 2020. Where will this gas come from and how will rising European imports affect N America and the rest of the world?


Figure 1 OECD Europe gas production and conceptual forecast. Click all charts to enlarge

Gazprom, Russian plans and that niggling worry...

Reading the piece that Leanan has in Drumbeat about the continuing cost increases for natural gas in Ukraine, following the agreement last year with Russia on sustained deliveries, I was struck with the contrast to an earlier item on anticipated costs for natural gas in the UK. In the Ukraine costs are going to be going up another 40%, while in the latter the wholesale price of gas in the UK has dropped by more than 50% since June, and this is projected to extend into the future. With that thought in mind, and given that part of the supply for the UK will likely increasingly come from Russia, I thought I would have another little look at what is going on with Gazprom.

In the Ukraine the agreement last year almost doubled the natural gas price (raising it to $95 per thousand cubic meters (tcm) . Belarus just signed a deal that will cost them $100 per tcm, while Georgia is now paying $235 per tcm . The price that Belarus pays, however, is given as $70 in cash and $30 in shares of the Belarus pipeline company Beltrangaz. Over the next four years the price will rise to the European price (currently the one that Georgia is paying) and by that time Gazprom will own half of the company.